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Forecast

May 11, 2020/report

May 9, 2020

Summary: Temperatures at most locations this morning are running anywhere from 5 to 8 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago.  The marine layer is nearly 3000 feet deep and will accelerate the cooling trend that began yesterday.

 

A late season storm is off the Oregon/northern California coast.  Showers are beginning to spread on shore north of Ukiah ahead of a surface cold front.  That front will move down the valley tonight and Tuesday morning.  models continue to indicate the main precipitation line will remain north of a Monterey/Merced line, however with room for error, we’ll keep a minimal chance of light showers in the forecast for Fresno County north.  The main impact for the valley will be much cooler temperatures and occasionally breezy weather as modified marine air moves inland and pressures begin to lower over the interior west as the low moves inland Tuesday.

 

Readings which over the weekend were in the mid to upper 90s will sink into the mid to upper 70s Tuesday and Wednesday.  a weak ridge of upper level high pressure will move in Wednesday night through Saturday for a minor warming trend which will allow temperatures to return to near seasonal values.

 

Models for Sunday and Monday of next week indicate another low off the Oregon/northern California coast will likely spread showers over northern California and possibly portions of central California with yet another downturn in temperatures.  This is something we’ll simply have to tweak as we progress through the week.  The bottom line is, for the next week to possibly ten days we can expect low pressure over the western U.S.

 

Forecast: Partly cloudy today.  Variable cloudiness tonight and Tuesday with a small chance of a few light showers from Fresno County north.  Becoming mostly clear Tuesday night with the exception of Kern County and possibly portions of Tulare county which may remain mostly to partly cloudy through Wednesday morning.  mostly clear Wednesday afternoon through Saturday night.  variable cloudiness Sunday through Monday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 84/52/75/49/77 Reedley 85/53/76/51/77 Dinuba 84/51/75/48/76
Porterville 86/52/77/49/76 Lindsay 85/51/77/48/77 Delano 86/54/76/53/77
Bakersfield 86/58/77/57/77 Taft 84/60/76/58/77 Arvin 86/54/76/53/78
Lamont 85/56/77/54/77 Pixley 85/53/76/50/77 Tulare 84/52/75/49/75
Woodlake 84/52/75/48/77 Hanford 85/55/76/52/77 Orosi 84/51/76/48/76

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Thursday

Mostly clear

48/80

Friday

Mostly clear

49/82

Saturday

Mostly clear

52/84

Sunday

Variable clouds

53/80

Monday

Variable clouds

54/79

 

Two Week Outlook: May 18 through May 24:  This model still shows a broad area of low pressure over and off the west coast.  A considerably higher risk of showers shows up over northern California and to a lesser extent central California.  Temperatures will generally be below average.

 

May:  The first month of the dry season will be typically dry, in other words this model is portraying near average precipitation for the month of May.  It also appears the trend of above average temperatures will continue for the month.

 

May, June, July:  Obviously, over the next 90 days precipitation will be largely nonexistent with the usual few exceptions, mainly during the month of May.  Models show the western half of the U.S. having generally above average temperatures.

 

Winds Discussion:  Through Tuesday night, expect periods of winds mainly out of the west or  northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with locally stronger gusts interspersed with periods of lighter winds.  Winds Wednesday through Thursday will be generally at or less than 15 MPH during the afternoons and evenings, mainly out of the northwest, and less than 8 MPH nights and mornings with periods of near calm conditions.      

 

Rain Discussion: We’ll keep a small chance of light showers in the forecast for Fresno County north from tonight through Tuesday as a weakening cold front moves down the valley.  If by chance precipitation does occur, less than .05 can be expected at any given location.  The south valley should remain dry with this event.  Dry weather will continue Wednesday through at least Saturday night and more than likely beyond.  However,  models continue to indicate a significant area of low pressure will be off the Oregon/northern California coast Sunday and Monday of next week.  For now, we’ll keep the forecast dry and watch this pattern through the week.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s.  Kern: Mid to upper 30s.  Humidity values ranging from 15%/75% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 15%/65%

Actual Humidity range May 10, 2020: Delano, 61%/16%, Porterville, 50%/16%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 50%.  Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 40%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford NA, Parlier 1.79, Blackwell Corner 2.01, Arvin 1.94, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 1.83, Delano 1.85. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford NA, Parlier 73, Blackwell 74, Arvin, 73, Orange Cove 70, Porterville 77, Delano 77

Record Temperatures: 100/40. Average Temperatures: 83/52

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 133 +65

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for May so far: 71.0 +4.6

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno/average + or 7.51 or -3.34.  Month to Date: .00 -.18

Since Oct 1, 2019,  Bakersfield:  7.02, or +.85.  Month to Date: .00 -.08

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 5:53, Sunset: 7:58 pm. Hours of Daylight:  14:02

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  89 /  59 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  91 /  57 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  93 /  63 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  94 /  56 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  95 /  57 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  95 /  67 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  92 /  58 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /   M /   M / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  93 /  60 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1649 /  92 /  67 / 0.00 /

 

 

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    7.99    60   15.79   118    13.36    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    6.86    56   12.06    98    12.33    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    9.34    79   11.87   101    11.77    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    5.81    51    9.84    87    11.30    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    7.51    69    9.49    87    10.85    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    6.51    69    7.67    81     9.50    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.02   114    6.32   102     6.17     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    2.25    52    8.09   186     4.36     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    9.00    73   12.40   100    12.34    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   11.34    92   14.12   115    12.29    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   10.39    77   14.83   109    13.56    13.95

Next report: May 11/morning