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Forecast

June 27, 2020/report

June 27, 2020

Summary: Pressures aloft have risen overnight.  A very warm bubble of subsiding air will give central California one  more hot day before a major break in the heat wave occurs.  The latest balloon sounding over Oakland pegged the freezing level way up at 17,400 feet, the highest so far this summer.  Very warm temperatures are reflected over the higher elevations in the mountains.  The temperature at Sandburg at 4,100 feet was a balmy 72 degrees and even way up at 8,200 feet, Bear Peak was reporting 66 degrees as of 6:00 am.  The marine layer has shrunk somewhat overnight, standing currently at 1,700 feet.

 

That will change in a hurry this evening as a high begins to be suppressed to the southwest in response to a deepening low pressure system currently moving into the Pacific Northwest..  as pressures fall aloft overnight, the marine air will surge initially through the Delta then through the gaps and passes of the Coast Range along the west side.  Gusty westerly winds will push through the west side of the valley this afternoon, along with areas of blowing dust.

 

The westerly winds will become northwesterly Sunday.  In addition, a dry cold front will move through the valley Sunday afternoon.  Obviously, this will all lead to much cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday as temperatures drop 10 to 15 degrees Sunday and another 7 or 8 degrees Monday.  Most locations will bottom out into the mid 80s Monday afternoon.

 

The rest of the week appears quite uneventful.  Models show a weak trough of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest with a weak zone of high pressure off the California coast extending inland into the Desert Southwest.  Temperatures will climb back up to seasonal values with widespread mid to upper 90s through next weekend,

 

Forecast: Mostly clear and hot today.  Mostly clear, breezy, and much cooler tonight through Monday.  Mostly clear Monday night through Saturday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 104/62/91/53/85 Reedley 105/64/92/52/85 Dinuba 104/61/91.51/85
Porterville 105/66/93/53/84 Lindsay 105/64/92/52/86 Delano 106/68/93/57/86
Bakersfield 106/74/94/59/86 Taft 104/75/91/61/85 Arvin 107/71/94/59/86
Lamont 106/70/93/57/85 Pixley 105/67/92/54/86 Tulare 104/64/92/52/85
Woodlake 104/64/91/51/85 Hanford 105/65/92/54/85 Orosi 104/64/92/52/85

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Tuesday

Mostly clear

57/93

Wednesday

Mostly clear

62/97

Thursday

Mostly clear

61/97

Friday

Mostly clear

61/98

Saturday

Mostly clear

62/98

 

Two Week Outlook:  July 2 through July 8:  This model is indicating a fairly typical summer pattern with high pressure dominating over the eastern Pacific, extending over California into the Desert Southwest.  Temperatures will be marginally above average with typical dry conditions continuing.

 

June:  The month of June brings us into the dry season for central California.  The chance of rain during the month will be very low on any given day.  This model indicates we can expect above average temperatures for the month.

 

June, July, August:  What can you say about the summer months in the valley except it will be hot and dry.  Of course, this summer will be no exception.  Precipitation will be near average, which is next to none.  This model indicates the next three months will have above average temperatures, but what else is new?

 

Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 12 MPH through late afternoon.  By early this evening, winds will increase out of the west at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts.  Gusts exceeding 35 MPH are possible along the west side, especially along the Interstate 5 corridor, through Sunday.  From Sunday night through Monday evening, winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts.  Winds later Monday night will decrease to around 5 to 12 MPH with winds Tuesday being generally at or less than 12 MPH.

 

Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 50s to the lower 60s. Kern: Upper 50s to the lower 60s. Humidity values ranging from 20%/70% at Visalia.  Bakersfield 20%/55%

Actual Humidity range June 26, 2020: Delano, NA, Porterville, NA

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 80%.  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 90%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.20, Parlier 2.02, Blackwell Corner 2.31, Arvin 2.26, Orange Cove 2.22, Porterville 2.10, Delano 2.01. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 74, Parlier 76, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 80, Orange Cove 82, Porterville 80, Delano 81

Record Temperatures: 110/51. Average Temperatures: 95/62

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 595 +165

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for June so far: 76.9 +2.9

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno/average + or 7.63 or -3.67.  Month to Date: .00 -.20

Since Oct 1, 2019,  Bakersfield:  7.20, or +.85.  Month to Date: .02 -.06

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 5:43, Sunset: 8:22 pm. Hours of Daylight:  14:39

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  99 /  68 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 / 100 /  66 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 / 102 /  76 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 / 101 /  67 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 / 102 /  69 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 / 102 /  77 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 / 100 /  69 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1700 /   M /   M / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 / 102 /  71 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1700 /   M /   M / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  99 /  66 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    8.35    61   18.37   134    13.76    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    6.94    54   13.35   104    12.82    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    9.54    78   13.27   109    12.19    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    6.02    51   11.42    97    11.72    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    7.63    68   11.85   105    11.30    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    6.62    67    9.50    96     9.89    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.20   113    7.80   123     6.35     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    2.25    48    8.47   181     4.67     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    9.16    73   13.80   109    12.63    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   11.37    91   14.88   120    12.45    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   10.61    77   15.68   114    13.76    13.95

Next report: June 29/morning