July 16, 2020
Summary: The flow of modified marine air has ceased from moving into the valley with the exception of the Delta region where a minor amount of sea breeze is sneaking through. Further south, however, the winds at Pacheco Pass were near calm as of 6:00am. Yesterday, the marine layer was just under 3,000 feet. This morning, the depth is near 1,900 feet.
The main challenge this morning is a weak upper air low just off the southern California coast. This feature may add enough convection to the atmosphere that, combined with strong daytime heating, it could set off thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada. The current winds aloft are out of the southeast due to the proximity of the low, so there’s always the slight chance of a cell or two making it over the foothills, but no rain is expected for the valley floor.
Over the next 72 hours, high pressure over Texas will expand west. A massive high will essentially stretch from the southeast U.S. all the way to California over the weekend. Models are backing off somewhat on the possibility of monsoon moisture moving into central California early next week. Still, it’s something we should keep an eye on. In the meantime, though, due to increasing pressures aloft, temperatures will again reach the century mark at most locations through Monday.
Models are also picking up on a trough of low pressure moving into northern California late Tuesday and Wednesday. this should trigger our next cooling trend as our old friend the marine layer again surges inland.
Forecast: Clear skies through Sunday. Mostly clear Sunday night through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 100/64/100/65/102 | Reedley 101/65/100/66/102 | Dinuba 99/63/99/65/101 |
| Porterville 101/65/101/67/103 | Lindsay 100/64/100/66/102 | Delano 101/67/100/68/103 |
| Bakersfield 102/72/101/72/103 | Taft 101/74/101/75/103 | Arvin 102/66/101/68/103 |
| Lamont 101/67/101/69/103 | Pixley 100/65/100/67/102 | Tulare 99/63/99/65/101 |
| Woodlake 100/64/100/67/101 | Hanford 101/65/100/67/102 | Orosi 99/64/99/66/102 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Mostly clear 66/103 |
Monday
Mostly clear 64/102 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 63/100 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 59/97 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 59/97 |
Two Week Outlook: July 23 through July 29: This model is indicating California will be sandwiched between low pressure over the Pacific Northwest and upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest. Typically, this results in a dry southwesterly flow and near average temperatures.
July: This model indicates warmer than average temperatures over the next four weeks. The usual dry pattern will prevail in the San Joaquin Valley with the chance of precipitation on any given day being almost nil. Average precipitation for the month is .01.
July, August, September: This time of year, the 90 day out look is no secret. July and August will be hot and dry while September has a minor risk of precipitation, mainly from the tropics. This out look appears fairly typical. Marginally above average temperatures are expected with near average precipitation, which is a meaningless projection.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the afternoon and evening will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH with locally stronger gusts through Monday. winds during the night and morning hours will be variable to 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 50s Kern: Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 25%/75% at Visalia. Bakersfield 20%/55%
Actual Humidity range July 15, 2020: Delano, 68%/30%, Porterville, 64%/25%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 2.16, Parlier 1.99, Blackwell Corner 2.43, Arvin 2.33, Orange Cove 2.19, Porterville 2.11, Delano 1.99. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 76, Parlier 82, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 80, Orange Cove 84, Porterville 84, Delano 77
Record Temperatures: 111/54. Average Temperatures: 99/65
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 880 +196
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for July so far: 80.2 +1.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno/average + or 7.63 or -3.69. Month to Date: .00 -.01
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 7.20, or +.85. Month to Date: .00 -.00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:53, Sunset: 8:16 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14:24
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 95 / 62 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 96 / 60 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 98 / 68 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 97 / 67 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 100 / 62 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 98 / 72 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / MM / 62 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / MM / 63 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 94 / 60 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 8.35 61 18.37 134 13.76 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.94 54 13.35 104 12.83 13.11
MERCED 0.00 9.54 78 13.27 109 12.19 12.50
MADERA 0.00 6.02 51 11.42 97 11.74 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 7.63 67 11.85 105 11.32 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 6.62 67 9.50 96 9.90 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.20 113 7.80 123 6.35 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 2.25 47 8.47 178 4.75 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 9.16 73 13.80 109 12.63 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 11.37 91 14.88 120 12.45 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 10.61 77 15.68 114 13.77 13.95
Next report: July 17/morning