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Forecast

August 24, 2020/report

August 24, 2020

Summary:  For the second time this month, remnants of a tropical storm have moved through central California.  Overnight, there were a few sprinkles, but nothing measurable on the valley floor.  During the predawn hours, there were a few thunderstorms over the mountains of Madera and Mariposa Counties, but to my knowledge those were the only regions to receive measurable rain.

 

The center of circulation of former tropical storm Genevieve is a few hundred miles west of San Francisco this morning and are moving north, northeast.  There are scattered showers over northern California, however central California is precipitation free.  What cloud cover is left this morning will move northward out of the area, revealing clear skies mixed with lots of smoke.

 

The overall pattern this week will finally change to one where double digits will be in the forecast, mainly north of Kern County today. In the big picture, upper level high pressure will center over the Four Corners region by Wednesday while a weak trough of low pressure lingers off the California coast.  This will allow temperatures to finally return to more of a semblance of seasonal average later this week.

 

Models vary on the pattern for early next week, ranging from a trough off the west coast and marginally below average temperatures.  However, the GFS model this morning shows the southwestern high moving back over California for the possibility of another round of triple digits beginning early next week.  One thing is for sure, however, the southerly flow will become southwesterly, finally cutting off the tropical feed into California for lower humidity and generally clear skies.

 

Forecast:  Becoming mostly clear this morning.  mostly clear this afternoon.  Mostly clear skies will continue tonight and will last all the way through Monday of next week.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 98/68/98/67/97 Reedley 99/68/99/68/98 Dinuba 98/67/97/66/96
Porterville 100/69/99/68/97 Lindsay 99/67/98/66/97 Delano 100/70/99/68/99
Bakersfield 101/75/101/74/98 Taft 100/77/99/75/98 Arvin 102/71/101/69/99
Lamont 101/71/100/69/99 Pixley 100/68/99/67/97 Tulare 98/67/97/66/96
Woodlake 99/67/98/66/97 Hanford 100/68/98/68/98 Orosi 99/67/98/66/96

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Thursday

Mostly clear

65/98

Friday

Mostly clear

64/97

Saturday

Mostly clear

63/98

Sunday

Mostly clear

63/98

Monday

Mostly clear

62/97

 

Two Week Outlook:  August 31 through September 6:  This model indicates a dominant ridge of high pressure will be along the west coast for, what else, above average temperatures.  The flow aloft is projected to be mainly southwesterly for dry conditions.

 

August:  Typically, especially this time of year, long range outlooks by NOAA reflect the global warming madness.  This model indicates above average temperatures and largely dry conditions.

 

August, September, October:  Just like the 30 day outlook, this longer range outlook reflects above average temperatures everywhere, including California.  This model does not reflect either above or below average precipitation, although as we head into September, we will have to keep a closer eye on the tropics.

 

Winds Discussion:  Winds through Thursday will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH afternoons and evenings and 3 to 6 MPH nights and early mornings with periods of near calm conditions.

  

Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 60s.  Kern: Upper 50s to the lower 60s.

Actual Humidity range August 23, 2020: Delano, 99%/31%, Porterville, 89%/37%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 70%.  Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 70%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.68, Parlier 1.47, Blackwell Corner 1.64, Arvin NA, Orange Cove 1.64, Porterville 1.49, Delano 1.49. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 81, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 80, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 80, Delano 78

Record Temperatures: 112/51. Average Temperatures: 96/62

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1589 +355

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for August so far: 83.3 +4.6

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno/average + or -.  7.63 or -3.69.  Month to Date: .T -.00

Since Oct 1, 2019,  Fresno, 7.63 -3.69. 7.20, or +.84.  Bakersfield, 7.20 +.82. Month to Date: .T -.03

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:25, Sunset: 7:36 pm. Hours of Daylight:  13:14

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  96 /  65 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  96 /  65 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  96 /  74 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  95 /  68 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  97 /  68 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  98 /  76 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  95 /  69 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1700 /  95 /  74 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  95 /  69 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    8.35    61   18.37   133    13.77    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    6.94    54   13.35   104    12.84    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    9.54    78   13.27   109    12.20    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    6.02    51   11.42    97    11.76    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    7.63    67   11.85   105    11.32    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    6.62    67    9.50    96     9.92    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.20   113    7.80   122     6.38     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    2.25    45    8.47   171     4.95     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    9.18    73   13.80   109    12.66    12.83

PASO ROBLES                      T   11.47    92   14.88   119    12.52    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   10.66    77   15.68   114    13.80    13.95

 

 

Next report: August 25/morning