Our thoughts and prayers are with those affected by the wildfires.
September 14, 2020
Summary: The visibility at Bakersfield and Porterville was 4 miles, Visalia 2 miles, Lemoore 3 miles, 1 mile at Fresno, and 1.5 miles at Madera. Also, a light ash fall is evident in many locations. This has been somewhat of a learning experience as in all my years of forecasting weather for the valley, I’ve never come close to seeing as much debris in the atmosphere and its effect on temperatures. Essentially, for the next couple of days, where the smoke is relatively thin, low to mid 90s can be expected with low to mid 80s where the smoke is more dense. Currently, we have a light south/southeast flow aloft so heaviest smoke particulate matter will be from northern Tulare County northward, mainly along the east side of the valley. However, even in Kern County, smoke from fires in southern California will be pushed into the region.
Upper level high pressure has shifted somewhat further east into the Four Corners region while a big low sits off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. That low will be our next shift in the overall pattern beginning Thursday as it moves into the Pacific Northwest and northern California. The winds aloft, which are currently out of the south/southeast, will eventually become southwesterly.
Tropical storm Karina is located several hundred miles to the west/southwest of Cabo. Karina is a rather weak tropical system, but it is possible the southwesterly winds aloft could pick up some of this mid and high level moisture and transfer it over central California Thursday night and Friday. No precipitation is expected, other than the possibility of a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada.
Temperatures will also begin to fall back after Wednesday as marine air spills inland. Theoretically, this would improve visibility and air quality. Medium range models for next week indicate the development of a big upper high over the western U.S. for the return of above average temperatures.
Forecast: Mostly clear and hazy through Wednesday. mostly clear Wednesday night through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 90/57/91/58/94 | Reedley 91/57/92/59/94 | Dinuba 90/56/91/57/93 |
| Porterville 94/58/94/59/95 | Lindsay 93/58/92/60/95 | Delano 94/61/92/61/95 |
| Bakersfield 94/67/95/68/95 | Taft 94/70/96/71/94 | Arvin 96/61/96/62/97 |
| Lamont 95/62/96/64/96 | Pixley 94/57/94/58/95 | Tulare 90/56/91/58/93 |
| Woodlake 90/56/91/58/93 | Hanford 91/58/92/60/94 | Orosi 90/56/92/58/93 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Mostly clear 56/90 |
Friday
Mostly clear 63/87 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 57/88 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 57/91 |
Monday
Mostly clear 57/92 |
Two Week Outlook: September 21 through September 27: This model indicates an amplified pattern with a big high over the western U.S. and a cool trough of low pressure east of the Rockies. This regime will keep temperatures above average with dry conditions.
September: This model is indicating basically the western half of the United States will have above average temperatures, continuing the trend of the summer season into the early fall. This model shows near average precipitation, which is minimal at best anyway.
September, October, November: This model always indicates above average temperatures for the western U.S. and this time around is no exception. As we head into the autumn season this model is indicating there will be equal chances of above or below precipitation.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 12 MPH during the afternoons and variable. During the night and morning hours, winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
Actual Humidity Range September 13, 2020: Delano, 83%/31%, Porterville, 97%/26%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.23, Parlier .97, Blackwell Corner 1.18, Arvin 1.53, Orange Cove .98, Porterville 1.05, Delano 1.15. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 74, Parlier 76, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 78, Orange Cove 83, Porterville 75, Delano 73
Record Temperatures: 106/47. Average Temperatures: 92/59
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 1908 +442
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for September So Far: 78.4 +3.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno/average + or -. 7.63 or -3.74. Month to Date: .T -.04
Since Oct 1, 2019, Fresno, 7.63 -3.69. 7.20, or +.84. Bakersfield, 7.20 +.79. Month to Date: .T -.02
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:42 Sunset: 7:05 pm Hours of Daylight: 12:26
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 90 / 57 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 90 / 59 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 90 / 63 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 91 / 56 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 92 / 57 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 95 / 64 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 89 / 56 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 93 / 57 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 8.35 60 18.37 133 13.84 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.94 54 13.35 103 12.90 13.11
MERCED 0.00 9.54 78 13.27 108 12.30 12.50
MADERA 0.00 6.02 51 11.42 96 11.85 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 7.63 67 11.85 104 11.37 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 6.62 66 9.50 95 9.98 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.20 112 7.82 122 6.41 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 2.25 45 8.48 168 5.04 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 9.18 72 13.80 109 12.69 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 11.47 91 14.88 118 12.59 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 10.66 77 15.68 113 13.85 13.95
Next report: September 15/morning