Our thoughts and prayers are with those affected by the wildfires.
September 15, 2020
Summary: The visibility at Porterville and Madera was just 1.75 miles, Visalia has a visibility of 1.5 miles with 2 mile visibilities at Lemoore and Fresno. The automated station at Porterville was reporting an overcast at 3,100 feet, but this time the overcast is caused by smoke and not cloud cover. There will be a slow evolution in our weather, however, which should bring better air quality.
Upper level high pressure currently over the Four Corners region is causing the southerly flow aloft to continue. This is moving the smoke layer from south to north along the foothills. A low pressure system west of the Oregon coast will begin to slowly move inland Thursday through Friday, turning the winds aloft out of the southwest underneath the low. This will begin to sweep the smoke into Nevada. As more and more marine air moves inland, the smoke track on the valley floor should begin to disperse.
Also, we continue to have a bit of a wild card from Tropical Storm Karina. Karina is well off the central Baja coastline and will soon move into cooler waters where she will fall apart. Normally, this would be a non issue, however with that low moving into northern California Thursday and Friday, the remnants of Karina will be pulled northeastward. One model shows Karina’s moisture moving through Tulare and Kern Counties later Thursday into Friday morning. others show it moving in more into northern California. One model even suggests there’s a chance of isolated thunderstorms over extreme southern Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains. This does bear watching. However, considering the main area of low pressure will remain to our north, for now it does not appear to be a trigger that could result in isolated showers over the valley floor. For now we’ll just go with a partly cloudy forecast for Thursday and Friday.
By Saturday, the low will have moved into the northern Rockies with a fairly weak upper high building into much of the western U.S. and a weak westerly flow aloft.
Forecast: Mostly clear and hazy through Wednesday. mostly clear with occasional high clouds Wednesday night. partly cloudy Thursday through Friday. Mostly clear Friday night through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 93/57/92/57/86 | Reedley 93/56/92/56/87 | Dinuba 92/55/91/56/86 |
| Porterville 93/56/91/56/88 | Lindsay 93/55/91/56/88 | Delano 94/59/91/60/89 |
| Bakersfield 95/65/94/67/91 | Taft 94/69/94/68/90 | Arvin 96/61/95/62/91 |
| Lamont 95/61/94/62/90 | Pixley 94/57/91/58/89 | Tulare 92/56/91/58/88 |
| Woodlake 93/56/91/56/87 | Hanford 93/57/91/60/88 | Orosi 92/56/91/58/88 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Partly cloudy 63/86 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 57/87 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 58/92 |
Monday
Mostly clear 57/91 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 58/91 |
Two Week Outlook: September 21 through September 27: This model is indicating the storm track will begin to move into the Pacific Northwest. Upper level high pressure will remain over the Desert Southwest, keeping temperatures somewhat above average with dry conditions continuing.
September: This model is indicating basically the western half of the United States will have above average temperatures, continuing the trend of the summer season into the early fall. This model shows near average precipitation, which is minimal at best anyway.
September, October, November: This model always indicates above average temperatures for the western U.S. and this time around is no exception. As we head into the autumn season this model is indicating there will be equal chances of above or below precipitation.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH through Wednesday morning with periods of near calm conditions. By late Wednesday and through Friday, winds will be mainly out of the west to northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts Thursday and Friday, mainly along the west side.
Rain Discussion: There is a bit of a wild card out there in the form of a very weak tropical storm, Karina, which is currently well off the central Baja coastline. Karina will move into colder waters, weakening rapidly, Wednesday and will fall apart. The system’s remnants will track northeastward into California Thursday through Friday. One model shows the bulk of the moisture moving through Tulare and Kern County late Thursday morning but others track it into northern California. One model even suggests a chance of thunderstorms over the Kern County mountains and extreme southern Sierra Nevada. At this point, I don’t see a trigger for the atmosphere that would result in activity over the valley floor, so we’ll go with a dry forecast while watching matters closely in case Mother Nature’s curve ball becomes involved.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Actual Humidity Range September 14, 2020: Delano, 80%/34%, Porterville, 93%/29%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.21, Parlier .94, Blackwell Corner 1.19, Arvin 1.51, Orange Cove .95, Porterville 1.01, Delano 1.11. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 74, Parlier 75, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 77, Orange Cove 81, Porterville 74, Delano 72
Record Temperatures: 104/45. Average Temperatures: 91/59
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 1920 +445
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for September So Far: 78.3 +3.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno/average + or -. 7.63 or -3.75. Month to Date: .T -.05
Since Oct 1, 2019, Fresno, 7.63 -3.69. 7.20, or +.84. Bakersfield, 7.20 +.79. Month to Date: .T -.02
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:42 Sunset: 7:04 pm Hours of Daylight: 12:24
Yesterday’s Weather
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 93 / 54 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 94 / 64 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 95 / 58 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 95 / 58 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1701 / 92 / 61 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 93 / 57 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 94 / 59 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 88 / 59 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 8.35 60 18.37 133 13.85 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.94 54 13.35 103 12.91 13.11
MERCED 0.00 9.54 77 13.27 108 12.31 12.50
MADERA 0.00 6.02 51 11.42 96 11.86 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 7.63 67 11.85 104 11.38 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 6.62 66 9.50 95 9.99 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.20 112 7.82 122 6.41 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 2.25 45 8.48 168 5.04 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 9.18 72 13.80 109 12.70 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 11.47 91 14.88 118 12.60 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 10.66 77 15.68 113 13.85 13.95
Next report: September 16/morning