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Forecast

September 17, 2020/report

Our thoughts and prayers are with those affected by the wildfires.

 

September 17, 2020

Summary:  Mid and high level clouds are increasing from the southwest as the remains of former tropical storm Karina are now caught up in a west/southwest flow aloft.  These clouds will continue to stream inland over central California during the next 24 hours or so.  The cloud cover should keep temperatures at most locations below the 90 degree mark.

 

Dopper radar is also picking up virga off the central coast.  This is rain falling from high level clouds that does not reach the ground.  It’s possible that, from later today through Friday morning, a sprinkle or two may hit the ground out there somewhere.  However, no measurable rain is anticipated.

 

The main catalyst of all this is a low pressure system just off the Oregon coast.  Underneath this low is a west/southwest flow aloft which is dragging Karina’s remnants over our region.  As the low moves very slowly inland tonight through Friday night, Karina’s moisture will be shunted into Nevada, returning clear but smoky skies to the area.  The winds aloft are carrying the bulk of the mid and high level smoke from the two large wildfires into Nevada now, however a shallow layer of smoke remains on the valley floor, something similar to what we’d see during the fog season.

 

As the low moves inland, cooler air will move in aloft.  As pressure differences tighten up between the coast and the interior, a progressively stronger onshore flow will push modified marine air inland, resulting in a very pleasant weekend ahead with most locations warming only into the mid 80s.  after the miserable summer, a little touch of fall will be welcome.

 

The low will finally move into the Rockies Sunday, allowing a weak high to build over the Pacific and California with a dry westerly flow aloft for much of next week.  Temperatures next week should be close to average for the date.

 

Forecast:  Variable cloudiness through Friday morning and becoming rather humid.  Clearing Friday afternoon.  Mostly clear and pleasant Friday night through Sunday.  Mostly clear Sunday night through Thursday with seasonal temperatures.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 87/63/83/55/83 Reedley 88/63/84/56/84 Dinuba 87/63/84/55/83
Porterville 88/62/83/56/84 Lindsay 88/62/84/55/84 Delano 89/64/84/58/84
Bakersfield 89/71/87/64/85 Taft 89/72/85/65/84 Arvin 89/65/85/61/86
Lamont 89/66/85/62/85 Pixley 88/63/85/56/84 Tulare 87/61/83/55/83
Woodlake 87/61/84/55/83 Hanford 88/63/85/57/83 Orosi 87/61/83/55/83

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Sunday

Mostly clear

54/90

Monday

Mostly clear

56/91

Tuesday

Mostly clear

56/91

Wednesday

Mostly clear

57/92

Thursday

Mostly clear

58/93

 

Two Week Outlook:  September 24 through September 30:  This model is indicating the storm track will begin to move into the Pacific Northwest.  Upper level high pressure will remain over the Desert Southwest, keeping temperatures somewhat above average with dry conditions continuing.

 

September:  This model is indicating basically the western half of the United States will have above average temperatures, continuing the trend of the summer season into the early fall.  This model shows near average precipitation, which is minimal at best anyway.

 

September, October, November:  This model always indicates above average temperatures for the western U.S. and this time around is no exception.  As we head into the autumn season this model is indicating there will be equal chances of above or below precipitation.

 

Winds Discussion:  There will be periods of winds mainly out of the west to northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 20 MPH possible through Saturday.  Winds Sunday will decrease to 5 to 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.

  

Rain Discussion: As the remnants of Karina move in from the west/southwest through Friday morning, mid and high level clouds will be visible.  It’s possible a sprinkle or two could occur somewhere over the valley floor from this afternoon through Friday morning.  in the unlikely event this happens, nothing measurable is anticipated.  From Friday afternoon through next week, expect the usual dry weather to continue.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 60s.  Kern: Low to mid 60s.

Actual Humidity Range September 16, 2020: Delano, 86%/38%, Porterville, 97%/37%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 80%.  Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.09, Parlier .84, Blackwell Corner 1.10, Arvin 1.36, Orange Cove .86, Porterville .90, Delano 1.01. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 73, Parlier 73, Blackwell 86, Arvin, 76, Orange Cove 80, Porterville 73, Delano 71

Record Temperatures: 105/48. Average Temperatures: 91/58

Cooling Degree Days This Season: 1939 +446

Courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for September So Far: 77.8 +2.6

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno/average + or -.  7.63 or -3.76.  Month to Date: .T -.06

Since Oct 1, 2019,  Fresno, 7.63 -3.69. 7.20, or +.84.  Bakersfield, 7.20 +.78. Month to Date: .T -.03

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:44   Sunset: 7:01 pm   Hours of Daylight:  12:20

Yesterday’s Weather

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  92 /  55 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  92 /  65 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  91 /  57 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  92 /  56 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /   M /  65 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  90 /  60 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  89 /  60 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  91 /  60 / 0.00 /

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    8.35    60   18.58   134    13.87    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    6.94    54   13.47   104    12.93    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    9.54    77   13.27   108    12.33    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    6.02    51   11.42    96    11.87    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    7.63    67   11.85   104    11.39    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    6.62    66    9.50    95    10.00    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                      M    7.20   112    7.82   122     6.42     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    2.25    44    8.48   168     5.06     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    9.18    72   13.89   109    12.71    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   11.47    91   14.88   118    12.62    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   10.66    77   15.68   113    13.86    13.95

 

 

Next report: September 18/morning