September 21, 2020
Summary: A rather weak and flat zone of upper level high pressure now covers the eastern Pacific and California. Freezing levels are typical for the time of year. The latest sounding above Oakland indicates you have to go up to 15,500 feet. Marginally above average temperatures will rule through Tuesday. There will be no marine influence as the onshore flow is quite weak. The depth of the marine layer at Ford Ord is 1,300 feet.
In the meantime, to our north, a weak trough of low pressure resides over and off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. That trough will strengthen and dig southward into northern California Thursday and Friday. This, in turn, will lower pressures aloft and increase the onshore flow, allowing modified marine air to move down the valley. Mid to upper 80s appear to be a good bet Thursday and Friday.
Most of the medium range model information is now pointing to a strong ridge of upper level high pressure building eastward and northward along the Pacific coast over the weekend and shifting into the western U.S. by Sunday and Monday. It appears a very amplified pattern will develop Sunday and Monday of next week as a strong high drives temperatures well above average once again in California. East of the Rockies, a very autumn-like pattern will develop.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Thursday. Mostly clear skies Thursday night through Monday.
Short Term:
Madera 92/57/90/56/87 | Reedley 92/56/91/57/88 | Dinuba 91/56/90/57/87 |
Porterville 92/57/90/57/88 | Lindsay 92/56/90/56/88 | Delano 92/58/91/57/89 |
Bakersfield 93/66/92/64/89 | Taft 91/68/90/65/88 | Arvin 93/61/91/59/89 |
Lamont 92/61/90/59/89 | Pixley 92/57/91/57/88 | Tulare 90/55/90/55/87 |
Woodlake 91/56/90/55/87 | Hanford 92/58/88/57/88 | Orosi 90/56/89/55/87 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Thursday
Mostly clear 54/88 |
Friday
Mostly clear 53/86 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 54/90 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 55/95 |
Monday
Mostly clear 61/97 |
Two Week Outlook: September 28 through October 4: This model is indicating the storm track will begin to move into the Pacific Northwest. Upper level high pressure will remain over the Desert Southwest, keeping temperatures somewhat above average with dry conditions continuing.
September: This model is indicating basically the western half of the United States will have above average temperatures, continuing the trend of the summer season into the early fall. This model shows near average precipitation, which is minimal at best anyway.
September, October, November: This model always indicates above average temperatures for the western U.S. and this time around is no exception. As we head into the autumn season this model is indicating there will be equal chances of above or below precipitation.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the afternoon and early evening will be generally at or less than 12 MPH and mainly out of the northwest. Winds during the night and morning hours will generally be at or less than 6 MPH with periods of calm conditions through Wednesday. winds Wednesday night and Thursday will begin to pickup out of the west or northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with possible stronger gusts from Fresno County north and along the west side.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 86%/31%, Porterville, 94%/25%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.22, Parlier 1.03, Blackwell Corner 1.21, Arvin 1.40, Orange Cove 1.08, Porterville .92, Delano 1.09. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 73, Parlier 73, Blackwell 86, Arvin, 75, Orange Cove 79, Porterville 73, Delano 72
Record Temperatures: 102/42. Average Temperatures: 90/57
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 1980 +455
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for September So Far: 77.2 +2.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno/average + or -. 7.63 or -3.78. Month to Date: .T -.08
Since Oct 1, 2019, Fresno, 7.63 -3.69. 7.20, or +.84. Bakersfield, 7.20 +.77. Month to Date: .T -.04
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:47 Sunset: 6:55 pm Hours of Daylight: 12:10
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 92 / 55 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 88 / 56 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 90 / 63 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 90 / 57 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 92 / 54 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / M / M / M /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 90 / 57 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 90 / 59 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 8.35 60 18.60 134 13.92 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.94 54 13.47 104 12.97 13.11
MERCED 0.00 9.54 77 13.27 107 12.38 12.50
MADERA 0.00 6.02 51 11.42 96 11.91 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 7.63 67 11.85 104 11.41 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 6.62 66 9.50 95 10.03 10.10
BAKERSFIELD M 7.20 112 7.82 122 6.43 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 2.25 44 8.48 167 5.08 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 9.18 72 13.89 109 12.74 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 11.47 91 14.88 118 12.66 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 10.66 77 15.68 113 13.88 13.95
Next report: September 22/morning