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Forecast

September 25, 2020/report

September 25, 2020

National Quesadilla Day

Summary: A zonal flow continues across the eastern Pacific with one system right after another riding up into the Pacific Northwest.  Currently, widespread precip is falling in western Washington southward through central Oregon.  The bottom side of this disturbance is tracking through northern California.  It’s marked by high clouds but little else.  The main impact on central California will be a continued weakening of the high, allowing for pleasant temperatures today and Saturday.  Saturday, however, will be a transition from the current pattern to one which will lead us right back into summer-type conditions.  By Saturday evening, a  high center will be approaching theOregon coast then will center over Oregon Sunday through Tuesday.  The high will expand both southeastward and northward, building a ridge into western Canada then extending southward all the way into northern Mexico.

 

At the surface, high pressure will briefly jump up over the Great Basin Sunday and Monday, generating an off shore flow.  The main concern will be smoke as winds aloft will carry it from the Sierra out over the valley.

 

This amplified pattern of a massive high to the west and a big trough of low pressure east of the Rockies will be the main player for all of next week as well above average temperatures continue through next weekend.

 

Forecast:  Mostly clear skies through Monday.  Mostly clear skies Monday night through Friday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 83/53/85/56/91 Reedley 84/54/85/57/91 Dinuba 82/53/84/55/89
Porterville 84/54/85/54/91 Lindsay 83/53/85/55/91 Delano 84/56/85/57/92
Bakersfield 85/61/85/65/93 Taft 84/64/85/66/91 Arvin 84/57/85/63/93
Lamont 85/57/85/61/92 Pixley  84/55/85/58/91 Tulare 83/54/85/57/90
Woodlake 84/53/85/57/90 Hanford 84/55/85/58/91 Orosi 83/53/85/55/90

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Monday

Mostly clear

62/99

Tuesday

Mostly clear

63/98

Wednesday

Mostly clear

61/96

Thursday

Mostly clear

59/95

Friday

Mostly clear

58/95

 

Two Week Outlook:  October 1 through October 7:  This model is indicating a strong ridge of upper level high pressure will be over the western one-third of the U.S. for very dry conditions.  Temperatures will remain above to possibly well above average.

 

September:  This model is indicating basically the western half of the United States will have above average temperatures, continuing the trend of the summer season into the early fall.  This model shows near average precipitation, which is minimal at best anyway.

 

September, October, November:  This model always indicates above average temperatures for the western U.S. and this time around is no exception.  As we head into the autumn season this model is indicating there will be equal chances of above or below precipitation.

 

Winds Discussion:  Winds today will generally be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH.  locally stronger gusts can be expected from Fresno County north and along the west side.  Winds later tonight through Monday will be at or less than 10 MPH late mornings through early evenings and variable in nature.  Winds will be less than 5 MPH during the night and early morning hours with periods of near calm conditions.

  

Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s.  Kern: Mid to upper 40s.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 79%/32%, Porterville, 95%/27%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%.  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.39, Parlier 1.19, Blackwell Corners 1.30, Arvin 1.45, Orange Cove 1.23, Porterville 1.01, Delano 1.22. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 73, Parlier 74, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 76, Orange Cove 79, Porterville 73, Delano 71

Record Temperatures: 100/43. Average Temperatures: 88/56

Cooling Degree Days This Season: 2021 +468

Courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for September So Far: 76.8 +2.6

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno/average + or -.  7.63 or -3.81.  Month to Date: .T -.11

Since Oct 1, 2019,  Fresno, 7.63 -3.69. 7.20, or +.84.  Bakersfield, 7.20 +.75. Month to Date: .T -.06

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:50   Sunset: 6:49 pm   Hours of Daylight:  12:00

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  90 /  58 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  91 /  54 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  90 /  63 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  90 /  60 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  95 /  57 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  89 /  63 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  89 /  56 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  88 /  55 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  89 /  59 / 0.00 /

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    8.35    60   18.60   133    13.97    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    6.94    53   13.47   103    13.02    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    9.54    77   13.27   107    12.43    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    6.02    50   11.42    95    11.96    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    7.63    67   11.85   104    11.44    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    6.62    66    9.50    95    10.05    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.20   112    7.82   121     6.45     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    2.25    44    8.48   166     5.12     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    9.18    72   13.89   109    12.77    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   11.47    90   14.88   117    12.70    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   10.66    77   15.68   113    13.91    13.95

 

Next report: September 26/morning