October 1, 2020
National Black Dog Day
Summary: Yesterday, September 30, was the last official day of the water year. I pasted rainfall stats for all of California below for your interest. Northern and central California uniformly experienced a dry year while from roughly Kern County southward, above average rainfall was recorded. Since this is what is projected to be a La Nina year, history has shown that typically central and southern California have below average rain with above average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. However, I must emphasize that weather is going to do what weather is going to do.
Hot conditions will continue through Saturday as a massive high covers the western one-third of the U.S. and off shore with a ridge extending into western Canada and a big trough of low pressure east of the Rockies where fall is really settling in. Highs in the valley yesterday were mostly in the mid 90s, temperatures held down by smoke aloft. Further north, the Sacramento Valley was generally in the lower 100s. the latest balloon sounding above Oakland indicates a weak off shore flow. The marine layer at Monterey has been crushed down to 500 feet.
There is hope on the horizon however as models the past few days have consistently shown the high breaking down over the Pacific Northwest Sunday, weakening the high above central California and allowing temperatures to slowly come down. The westerlies will break through over the Pacific Northwest early next week with only weak high pressure above California, bringing temperatures down closer to average levels.
Way down in the equatorial eastern Pacific we have hurricane Marie which will become a major hurricane over the next day or so. Marie will move west/northwest, eventually weakening way out over the Pacific as she moves into cooler waters. By next Thursday, a deepening trough of low pressure will be developing along the west coast. For the third day in a row, medium range models show the remnants of Marie becoming entrained in this trough, possibly along a cold front for a possibility of showers for central and northern California. Since a trend is developing, I’m taking this a bit more seriously.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday. Mostly clear skies Sunday night through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 98/58/98/58/94 | Reedley 99/59/98/58/95 | Dinuba 97/57/97/58/94 |
| Porterville 99/59/98/59/95 | Lindsay 98/57/98/58/95 | Delano 99/60/98/60/95 |
| Bakersfield 99/70/98/70/96 | Taft 97/74/97/73/94 | Arvin 100/64/99/64/96 |
| Lamont 99/63/98/63/95 | Pixley 98/58/98/58/95 | Tulare 97/57/97/57/93 |
| Woodlake 98/58/98/57/94 | Hanford 98/59/98/59/95 | Orosi 97/57/97/57/94 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Mostly clear 57/91 |
Monday
Mostly clear 56/90 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 55/89 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 55/89 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 54/87 |
Two Week Outlook: October 8 through October 14: This model is now showing the development of a significant trough of low pressure over and along the west coast. There is some indication temperatures will be marginally above average with a better than even chance of above average rainfall. When was the last time you heard that?
October: This model essentially depicts the entire lower 48 with above average temperatures over the next 30 days. The most pronounced temperature anomalies will be over the Desert Southwest. This model also suggests there will be an equal chance of above or below average precipitation.
October, November, December: This model reflects the influence of La Nina. It paints above average temperatures over much of the country, especially the Desert southwest, and to a lesser extent, central California. Drier than average conditions are anticipated over southern California while northern California could possibly luck out with near average rainfall. Above average precipitation is expected over the Pacific Northwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH late mornings through the afternoons through Sunday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally at or less than 5 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: For the third day in a row, medium range models are pointing toward the possibility of rain beginning around Friday the 9th. A deepening trough of low pressure is projected to develop along the Pacific Northwest, sagging southward into northern California. Meanwhile, the remnants of hurricane Marie may become entrained in this trough, possibly along a cold front. In theory, this could result in showers for northern and central California. Since this is the third day in a row this has shown up on paper, I’m now taking this a bit more seriously.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 73%/24%, Porterville, 86%/25%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.36, Parlier 1.09, Blackwell Corners 1.23, Arvin 1.42, Orange Cove 1.18, Porterville .98, Delano 1.19. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 72, Parlier 74, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 75, Orange Cove 79, Porterville 72, Delano 70
Record Temperatures: 100/39. Average Temperatures: 86/55
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 2091 +503
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for September So Far: 76.7 +3.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno/average + or -. 7.63 or -3.87. Month to Date: .T -.17
Since Oct 1, 2019, Fresno, 7.63 -3.69. 7.20, or +.84. Bakersfield, 7.20 +.73. Month to Date: .T -.08
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:55 Sunset: 6:40 pm Hours of Daylight: 11:47
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 96 / 59 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 94 / 58 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 95 / 67 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 93 / 59 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 96 / 62 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 94 / 67 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 92 / 59 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 92 / 62 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 96 / 63 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
MEDFORD OR 0.00 12.65 69 21.78 119 18.35 18.35
KLAMATH FALLS OR 0.00 6.38 43 13.14 88 14.96 14.96
CRESCENT CITY 0.00 41.96 66 59.38 93 64.03 64.03
EUREKA 0.00 30.51 76 43.85 109 40.33 40.33
UKIAH 0.00 14.75 39 44.02 118 37.35 37.35
MONTAGUE / SISKIYOU 0.00 9.18 50 13.15 71 18.47 18.47
ALTURAS 0.00 8.73 62 15.60 110 14.17 14.17
MOUNT SHASTA CITY 0.00 21.84 51 48.07 111 43.21 43.21
REDDING 0.00 23.70 68 43.91 127 34.62 34.62
SACRAMENTO EXEC AIRPORT 0.00 9.73 53 24.37 132 18.52 18.52
SACRAMENTO – CSUS -0.01 10.90 54 M M 20.27 20.27
BLUE CANYON AIRPORT* 0.00 43.33 67 91.44 142 64.62 64.62
SANTA ROSA 0.00 19.35 53 48.17 133 36.28 36.28
SAN FRANCISCO 0.00 11.62 49 25.84 109 23.65 23.65
SFO INT’L AIRPORT 0.00 9.17 44 23.37 113 20.65 20.65
OAKLAND AIRPORT 0.00 8.70 42 21.00 101 20.81 20.81
LIVERMORE 0.00 6.43 41 16.96 108 15.71 15.71
SAN JOSE 0.00 7.22 48 16.56 111 14.90 14.90
…CENTRAL CALIFORNIA…
STOCKTON 0.00 8.35 59 18.60 132 14.06 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.94 53 13.47 103 13.11 13.11
MERCED 0.00 9.54 76 13.27 106 12.50 12.50
MADERA 0.00 6.02 50 11.42 95 12.02 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 7.63 66 11.85 103 11.50 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 6.62 66 9.50 94 10.10 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.20 111 7.82 121 6.47 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 2.25 44 8.48 164 5.17 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 9.18 72 13.95 109 12.83 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 11.47 90 14.88 116 12.78 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 10.66 76 15.68 112 13.95 13.95
…SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA…
SANDBERG 0.00 15.42 125 17.48 142 12.33 12.33
PALMDALE 0.00 8.69 105 7.09 85 8.30 8.30
LANCASTER 0.00 10.66 144 7.26 98 7.38 7.38
SANTA BARBARA 0.00 11.57 65 21.92 123 17.76 17.76
CAMARILLO 0.00 11.83 78 16.60 109 15.22 15.22
BURBANK – BOB HOPE 0.00 14.46 84 18.97 110 17.31 17.31
LAX INT’L AIRPORT 0.00 13.14 102 16.99 133 12.82 12.82
LOS ANGELES / USC 0.00 14.83 99 18.85 126 14.93 14.93
LONG BEACH 0.00 14.21 116 17.63 144 12.26 12.26
FULLERTON 0.00 12.43 90 17.22 124 13.88 13.88
IRVINE – JOHN WAYNE 0.00 12.77 96 18.08 136 13.33 13.33
OCEANSIDE 0.00 17.47 128 15.04 110 13.66 13.66
RAMONA 0.00 18.58 116 20.43 127 16.04 16.04
SAN DIEGO – LINDBERGH 0.00 13.60 132 12.93 125 10.34 10.34
ONTARIO 0.00 14.26 95 16.07 107 15.04 15.04
RIVERSIDE 0.00 10.76 87 13.13 106 12.40 12.40
PALM SPRINGS 0.00 5.79 101 8.84 154 5.74 5.74
THERMAL 0.00 5.19 162 4.23 132 3.20 3.20
CAMPO 0.00 15.25 97 17.23 110 15.73 15.73
BARSTOW – DAGGETT 0.00 5.88 145 4.08 100 4.06 4.06
NEEDLES 0.00 6.86 148 5.79 125 4.62 4.62
Next report: October 2, 2020