October 3, 2020
National Techies Day
Summary: Strong upper level high pressure continues to blanket the western one-third of the U.S. and off shore waters. The northern rim of the high is well north into western Canada while a very autumn-like trough of low pressure governs the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. The warm bubble of subsiding air continues to cap the valley with thick smoke being the main forecast challenge as it affects temperatures. At the 4,100 foot elevation, the temperature at Sandburg as of 6:00am was 74 degrees while Bear Peak at 8,200 feet was 60. Both of these locations are two degrees cooler than 24 hours ago but still exceedingly warm. The freezing level above Oakland this morning was right at 16000 feet.
After today, the northern portion of the high will begin to flatten out over the Pacific Northwest with the main high center drifting southeastward into southern California and northern Mexico. Minor cooling will begin Monday with more substantial cooling later in the week. Also, a little benign upper low will be off the central coast Tuesday then will drift to near the Bay Area Wednesday. no active weather will be associated with this feature, however it will have the tendency of cooling the air aloft somewhat and turn the surface flow to turn onshore, allowing modified marine air to move inland.
By Friday, a deepening trough of low pressure will extend from the Gulf of Alaska southward to off the California coast. In the meantime, a category 4 hurricane Marie continues to move northwest at 9 MPH well off the Baja coastline. Marie will soon move into cooler waters, triggering the weakening process and will turn into a tropical storm Monday and a depression Tuesday. Even so, the remnants of Marie still remain the wild card. For the fifth day in a row, models show a cold front moving through California this coming weekend. Latest models have pushed back the timing a bit, but the trough, coupled with the cold front and the remnants of Marie, could be enough to set off showers this weekend. Currently, we’ll put this in the low chance category, but stay tuned.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies and hazy through Monday night. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Friday. Increasing cloudiness Friday night with a slight chance of showers Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 95/57/95/56/92 | Reedley 96/58/95/58/93 | Dinuba 94/57/94/56/92 |
| Porterville 96/57/96/56/93 | Lindsay 96/56/96/56/92 | Delano 96/59/96/58/94 |
| Bakersfield 97/68/96/68/94 | Taft 95/74/95/73/93 | Arvin 97/63/96/63/94 |
| Lamont 97/62/96/62/94 | Pixley 96/57/96/57/93 | Tulare 94/57/94/56/92 |
| Woodlake 95/57/95/56/93 | Hanford 96/58/96/57/93 | Orosi 95/56/95/56/92 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 56/93 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 56/91 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 56/85 |
Friday
Increasing clouds 52/84 |
Saturday
Chance of showers 52/82 |
Two Week Outlook: October 10 through October 16: This model is now showing the development of a significant trough of low pressure over and along the west coast. There is some indication temperatures will be marginally above average with a better than even chance of above average rainfall. When was the last time you heard that?
October: This model essentially depicts the entire lower 48 with above average temperatures over the next 30 days. The most pronounced temperature anomalies will be over the Desert Southwest. This model also suggests there will be an equal chance of above or below average precipitation.
October, November, December: This model reflects the influence of La Nina. It paints above average temperatures over much of the country, especially the Desert southwest, and to a lesser extent, central California. Drier than average conditions are anticipated over southern California while northern California could possibly luck out with near average rainfall. Above average precipitation is expected over the Pacific Northwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH late mornings through the afternoons through Tuesday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally at or less than 5 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: We are still looking at next weekend with great interest for the possibility of precipitation in central California. The trend on medium range models continues to show a rather robust trough of low pressure and its associated cold front moving through the central valley this weekend. Models have pushed back the timing of all this a bit to around Saturday night and Sunday. The wild card, of course, is category 4 hurricane Marie which is chugging northwestward well off the Baja coastline. Marie will rapidly weaken Monday and Tuesday with the possibility of those remnants becoming entrained in the incoming trough and cold front. In theory, this could ratchet up the chance of showers. At the very least, much cooler weather will arrive, hopefully bringing precipitation to the mountains to help put an end to those fires.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 74%/26%, Porterville, 92%/20%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.28, Parlier 1.05, Blackwell Corners 1.22, Arvin 1.44, Orange Cove 1.16, Porterville .96, Delano 1.15. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 72, Parlier 75, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 75, Orange Cove 79, Porterville 76, Delano 71
Record Temperatures: 101/41. Average Temperatures: 85/54
Heating Degree Days This Season: 0 -8
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for September So Far: 77.5 +8.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .00 -.02 Month to Date: .00 -.02
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season .00, +or- -.01. Month to date .00 -.01
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:56 Sunset: 6:38 pm Hours of Daylight: 11:42
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 93 / 58 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 95 / 59 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 96 / 66 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 96 / 58 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 96 / 57 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1701 / 96 / 67 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 95 / 60 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / 94 / 65 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 96 / 62 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 90 / 63 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.03 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.03 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 N/A 0.00 N/A 0.00 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 N/A 0.00 N/A 0.00 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 6.47
BISHOP M M M M M M 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 13.95
Next report: October 5, 2020