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Forecast

October 6, 2020/report

October 6, 2020

Summary: In the short term, the main challenge is a benign moisture starved upper low off the central coast.  Currently, it’s about 250 miles off to sea.  It has picked up a minimal amount of mid and high level moisture from tropical storm Marie which is falling apart about 1,200 miles west of the northern Baja coastline.  Otherwise, a blanket of upper level high pressure covers the western states but it is slowly weakening.

 

Short term, temperatures will remain mostly in the low to mid 90s today and near 90 Wednesday.  Finally, autumn will begin to arrive Thursday as a low center in the northeast Pacific drops southeastward off the northern and central and northern California coast Thursday night and Friday.  This will not only allow for synoptic cooling beginning Thursday, but will issue in a rather robust onshore flow bringing in modified sea breezes into the valley.

 

Just as the low begins to move inland Friday night, a trough of low pressure moving into the Pacific Northwest will absorb the system, spreading light showers over northern California and parts of central California Friday night through Saturday night.  For now, the chance of measurable rain on the valley floor remains low, especially  in the south valley, however models are very inconsistent in trying to nail down specific chances of rain.  The southern Sierra Nevada will pick up at least some precipitation, possibly even a few inches of snow over the higher elevations.  Orographics will play a significant role in this event, reducing the chance of rain over the valley floor but increasing the chance along the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada.

 

Temperatures will take a nosedive as readings fall into the low to mid 70s Friday through Sunday with overnight lows dropping into the 40s in many ag locations.  Skies will begin to clear Sunday, however there will be lingering upslope clouds along the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada and the north facing slopes of the Kern County mountains.

 

A brief off shore wind event will occur Sunday night and Monday then upper level high pressure will slowly take over next week for a warming trend, returning the valley to above average conditions.  What else could we expect this year?

 

Forecast:  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Thursday night.  increasing cloudiness Friday.  Variable cloudiness Friday night through Sunday  morning with a minimal chance of light showers, especially from Fresno County north.  Clearing Sunday afternoon.  Mostly clear Sunday night through Tuesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 92/53/90/52/81 Reedley 92/54/90/52/82 Dinuba 91/53/89/51/81
Porterville 93/54/90/52/83 Lindsay 92/53/90/51/82 Delano 93/56/90/53/83
Bakersfield 93/65/91/64/82 Taft 92/68/90/65/83 Arvin 94/59/91/57/83
Lamont 93/59/90/56/82 Pixley 93/54/91/52/82 Tulare 91/53/90/51/81
Woodlake 93/53/90/51/81 Hanford 93/56/90/53/82 Orosi 92/53/90/51/81

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Friday

Slight chance of PM showers

51/76

Saturday

Small chance of light showers

52/75

Sunday

Clearing

49/78

Monday

Mostly clear

46/83

Tuesday

Mostly clear

49/88

 

Two Week Outlook:  October 13 through October 19:  This model is indicating above average rain will fall over the Pacific Northwest and far northern California with a minimal chance of showers over central California.  Marginally above average temperatures can be expected.

 

October:  This model essentially depicts the entire lower 48 with above average temperatures over the next 30 days.  The most pronounced temperature anomalies will be over the Desert Southwest.  This model also suggests there will be an equal chance of above or below average precipitation.

 

October, November, December:   This model reflects the influence of La Nina.  It paints above average temperatures over much of the country, especially the Desert southwest, and to a lesser extent, central California.  Drier than average conditions are anticipated over southern California while northern California could possibly luck out with near average rainfall.  Above average precipitation is expected over the Pacific Northwest.

 

Winds Discussion:  Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH late mornings through the afternoons through Wednesday night.  Winds Thursday will be out of the west or northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts.  Winds Friday will increase out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts possible.

  

Rain Discussion: Models are all over the place trying to discern rain chances for Friday night through Saturday night.  most models this morning are pointing to dryer conditions than previous model runs, so the chance of measurable rain on the valley floor, for now, appears quite minimal, especially south of Fresno County.  If precipitation does occur, for now it looks like no more than a few hundredths of an inch could be measured with an outside chance of around a tenth from Madera County northward.  Dry weather will return Sunday and it looks like dry weather will continue for all of next week.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s.  Kern: Mid to upper 40s.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 78%/17%, Porterville, 94%/13%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 80%.  Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 80%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.22, Parlier .99, Blackwell Corners 1.16, Arvin 1.40, Orange Cove 1.13, Porterville .94, Delano 1.10. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 71, Parlier 75, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 74, Orange Cove 79, Porterville 76, Delano 71

Record Temperatures: 99/37. Average Temperatures: 84/53

Heating Degree Days This Season: 0 -11

Courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for September So Far: 76.1 +7.7

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno .00 -.06  Month to Date: .00 -.06

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season .00, +or- -.02.   Month to date .00 -.02

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 7:00   Sunset: 6:33 pm   Hours of Daylight:  11:35

 

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  94 /  52 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  94 /  54 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  94 /  65 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  90 /  55 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  94 /  53 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DHM    /  93 /  67 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  89 /  57 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1653 /   M /   M /    M /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  94 /  62 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  92 /  62 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.07    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.07    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.04    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.03    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.06    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.02    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.02     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.05     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.06    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.06    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.05    13.95

 

Next report: October 7, 2020