October 19, 2020
Summary: On this day back in 1949 it was 30 degrees, which was the earliest freeze ever recorded. By the standards of this year, it’s like we live on a different planet although I promise cooler temperatures are ahead this week. Currently, there are two high centers out there. The first is located a few hundred miles west of the Baja coastline. The second is roughly 700 miles west of the Oregon coast. At the surface, pressures are slightly higher over Nevada than they are in Fresno. Even so, the marine layer has deepened to near 1,000 feet along the central coast.
By Wednesday, a relatively cold trough of low pressure will be dropping into the Pacific Northwest. This will allow pressures above central California to lower. Temperatures will fall back into the mid 80s Tuesday and Wednesday, which is still 7 to8 degrees above average. Most of the models show a fairly significant trough of low pressure dropping into the Great Basin over the weekend. By Friday, readings could lower into the upper 70s. And as the system engulfs the interior west by Saturday, some models are showing upper 60s by then.
For now, it appears the only chance of precipitation will be on Sunday in the form of snow showers over the high Sierra, but at the very least, genuine autumn weather will arrive with cloud cover and periodic breezy conditions over the weekend. Most models show the eastern Pacific high building back into California after Sunday for our next warming trend.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Saturday. Increasing cloudiness Saturday night. variable cloudiness Sunday through Monday morning. Clearing by Monday afternoon.
Short Term:
| Madera 88/51/87/50/85 | Reedley 89/52/88/50/86 | Dinuba 87/50/87/49/85 |
| Porterville 89/51/88/50/87 | Lindsay 88/49/87/49/86 | Delano 89/53/87/51/87 |
| Bakersfield 90/60/87/60/86 | Taft 88/63/87/62/86 | Arvin 90/55/88/53/87 |
| Lamont 90/55/88/52/87 | Pixley 89/52/88/52/86 | Tulare 88/51/87/50/85 |
| Woodlake 88/50/87/49/86 | Hanford 89/52/88/50/86 | Orosi 88/49/87/49/86 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Mostly clear 51/84 |
Friday
Mostly clear 48/79 |
Saturday
PM clouds 47/75 |
Sunday
Variable clouds 45/68 |
Monday
AM clouds 44/73 |
Two Week Outlook: October 26 through November 1: This model indicates there will only be a low chance of precipitation for late October and early November. It also indicates near average temperatures.
October: This model essentially depicts the entire lower 48 with above average temperatures over the next 30 days. The most pronounced temperature anomalies will be over the Desert Southwest. This model also suggests there will be an equal chance of above or below average precipitation.
October, November, December: This model reflects the influence of La Nina. It paints above average temperatures over much of the country, especially the Desert southwest, and to a lesser extent, central California. Drier than average conditions are anticipated over southern California while northern California could possibly luck out with near average rainfall. Above average precipitation is expected over the Pacific Northwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the afternoon will be generally at or less than 10 MPH and variable through Thursday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally less than 5 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.
Air Quality Expectations: With the tremendous amount of smoke over the valley floor, it’s no surprise the San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s)s for October 19, 2020:
Today’s air quality for Merced County is deemed moderate.
The air quality for the rest of the growing area is listed as unhealthy for sensitive groups.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 96%/26%, Porterville, 92%/22%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.08, Parlier .92, Blackwell Corners 1.01, Arvin 1.14, Orange Cove 1.00, Porterville .80, Delano .90. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 69, Parlier 70, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 71, Orange Cove 75, Porterville 73, Delano 67
Record Temperatures: 92/30. Average Temperatures: 78/49
Heating Degree Days This Season: 0 -35+
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for September So Far: 72.3 +6.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .00, -.27 Month to Date: .00, -.27
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .00, +or- -.12. Month to date .00 -.12
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:11 Sunset: 6:15 pm Hours of Daylight: 11:05
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 93 / 52 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 93 / 52 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 92 / 61 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 93 / 54 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 95 / 54 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 93 / 62 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 92 / 57 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1639 / 92 / 61 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 93 / 58 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.35 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.31 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.28 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.30 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.27 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.18 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.12 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.16 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.27 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.27 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.24 13.95
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 91 / 56 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 90 / 52 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 93 / 62 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1645 / 90 / 54 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 92 / 53 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 90 / 61 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 91 / 56 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1650 / 92 / 59 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 91 / 56 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 90 / 58 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.29 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.26 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.23 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.24 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.22 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.15 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.10 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.14 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.23 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.23 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.20 13.95
Next report: October 20, 2020