October 30, 2020
Summary: This is the year 2020, so it’s fitting that a full moon will fall on Halloween. On the flip side, we will continue to enjoy gorgeous afternoons and chilly nights through at least the next week or so. The main player is a high pressure system at the upper levels of the atmosphere centered off the northern California coast. A weak trough of low pressure is currently moving through British Columbia and Washington state. After this system moves to the east, the high will be able to move into the Pacific Northwest while a benign upper low moves through southern California over the weekend, possibly resulting in a few high clouds. The counterclockwise circulation around the low will turn the winds above central California out of the east for a weak off shore flow. This will aid in the warming trend with widespread low to mid 80s through Monday.
The high will flatten out Tuesday through Thursday, creating a zonal flow into north America. There are some indications that a major shift in the pattern may begin next weekend as a broad area of low pressure moves into the western U.S. One model suggests a cold low will drop into California about Veteran’s Day.
The two week model is now picking up on all this and is now indicating below average temperatures after the sixth with a better than even chance at precipitation.
Forecast: Clear skies through Tuesday. Mostly clear Tuesday night through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 81/40/82/41/84 | Reedley 82/40/83/41/84 | Dinuba 81/38/82/40/83 |
| Porterville 82/39/83/41/85 | Lindsay 81/39/82/41/85 | Delano 80/42/83/43/85 |
| Bakersfield 82/51/83/53/85 | Taft 80/56/82/57/84 | Arvin 82/45/83/46/86 |
| Lamont 81/40/82/42/84 | Pixley 81/39/82/41/84 | Tulare 80/38/81/41/83 |
| Woodlake 81/39/82/42/83 | Hanford 82/41/83/42/85 | Orosi 83/38/82/41/84 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly clear 44/83 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 45/83 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 44/82 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 43/79 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 43/76 |
Two Week Outlook: November 6 through November 12: This model is actually indicating possible changes on the horizon as a cold trough of low pressure digs southward into the western U.S. For the first time since I can remember, below average temperatures are indicated along with a better than even chance of rain.
October: This model essentially depicts the entire lower 48 with above average temperatures over the next 30 days. The most pronounced temperature anomalies will be over the Desert Southwest. This model also suggests there will be an equal chance of above or below average precipitation.
October, November, December: This model reflects the influence of La Nina. It paints above average temperatures over much of the country, especially the Desert southwest, and to a lesser extent, central California. Drier than average conditions are anticipated over southern California while northern California could possibly luck out with near average rainfall. Above average precipitation is expected over the Pacific Northwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH and variable during the day. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally less than 5 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Monday.
Rain Discussion: Dry weather will continue for the next 7 days at least. Medium range models, however, are indicating a possibly significant area of low pressure affecting California beginning around the 7 for the possibility of rain. One model shows a very cold low dropping into California around Veteran’s Day for an even higher chance of rain, so keep your fingers crossed.
Air Quality Expectations: With the tremendous amount of smoke over the valley floor, the San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for October 30, 2020:
Today’s air quality is listed as moderate for the entire valley with the exception of Kings County. The air quality in Kings County is deemed unhealthy for sensitive groups.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 98%/22%, Porterville, 88%/19%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .83, Parlier .69, Blackwell Corners .78, Arvin .85, Orange Cove .75, Porterville .65, Delano .71. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 66, Parlier 64, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 67, Orange Cove 70, Porterville 67, Delano 60
Record Temperatures: 91/27. Average Temperatures: 73/46
Heating Degree Days This Season: 35, -56
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for September So Far: 68.9 +4.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .00, -.56 Month to Date: .00, -.56
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .00, +or- -.26. Month to date .00, -.26
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:22 Sunset: 6:02 pm Hours of Daylight: 10:42
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 79 / 39 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 79 / 40 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 80 / 47 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 81 / 39 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 81 / 38 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 80 / 49 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 79 / 39 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / 79 / 47 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 81 / 42 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 78 / 44 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.72 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.61 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.70 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.75 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.56 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.44 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.26 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.27 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.52 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.55 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.53 13.95
Next report: October 31, 2020