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Forecast

November 3, 2020/report

Summary: The weak upper low which yesterday at this time was almost right overhead has moved into Nevada.  In the meantime, there is a dissipating frontal system off shore which will swing a few high clouds over the valley today, but little else.  Temperatures through Thursday will remain above average.

 

Overall, a flat zone of high pressure at the upper levels of the atmosphere covers the eastern Pacific and much of the western U.S.  A dramatic change in the pattern will occur beginning Friday.  A vigorous low will move out of the northeast Pacific to a position off the coast of the Pacific Northwest by Thursday.  It will then dig rapidly southeastward into northern California by Friday with the center of circulation diving into Nevada Saturday.

 

A cold front will move rapidly through the valley sometime later Friday night or early Saturday.  behind this front will be much colder air.  Models continue to indicate this system is vigorous but starved for moisture.  No doubt, rain and snow showers will spread down the Sierra Nevada Friday night with rapidly lowering snow levels.  Some models are picking up on the possibility of a secondary wave moving through Sunday, possibly renewing the chance of light snow showers over the mountain regions.  The snow level may fall to as low as 3,000-4,000 feet by Sunday.

 

The chance of measurable rain on the valley floor still appears to be quite limited.  Even so, with the strong upper air dynamics with this system, a small chance of light showers is possible, especially near the Sierra Nevada foothills.

 

As upper level high pressure builds along the west coast Sunday and Monday, and the low begins to pull off into the intermountain west, a strong northerly flow aloft coupled with a brief strong off shore flow Monday will drive colder and drier air into the valley.  It still looks like subfreezing temperatures are likely Sunday through Tuesday.  This is not a critical freeze situation.  More is discussed below in the frost section.

 

Weak upper level high pressure will take over at midweek, although some models indicate a weak and dry trough of low pressure will move through.  Temperatures will moderate, especially during the afternoons, with slow moderation during the overnight hours.

 

Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear through Thursday night.  increasing clouds Friday, breezy and cooler.  Variable cloudiness Friday night and Saturday with a small chance of a few light showers, mainly late Friday night and Saturday.  partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.  mostly clear Sunday afternoon with the possible exception of Kern and Tulare Counties.  Mostly clear Monday afternoon through Tuesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 81/44/79/44/78 Reedley 82/44/79/43/79 Dinuba 81/43/78/43/77
Porterville 82/43/79/43/80 Lindsay 81/43/79/43/77 Delano 82/45/79/44/78
Bakersfield 83/53/80/53/79 Taft 82/57/79/56/79 Arvin 83/48/80/47/80
Lamont 82/47/79/47/79 Pixley 81/44/79/44/78 Tulare 80/43/79/43/77
Woodlake 81/43/79/43/77 Hanford 82/45/79/45/79 Orosi 80/43/78/42/77

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Friday

Increasing clouds

47/68

Saturday

Slight  chance of showers

36/63

Sunday

AM clouds/PM sun

33/58

Monday

Mostly clear

30/59

Tuesday

Mostly clear

30/63

 

Two Week Outlook:  November 10 through November 16:  This model continues to show the trend of below average temperatures over the western U.S.  Even though there’s no strong signature for rain, rain is not ruled out, either, so the chance of precipitation remains low.

 

October:  This model essentially depicts the entire lower 48 with above average temperatures over the next 30 days.  The most pronounced temperature anomalies will be over the Desert Southwest.  This model also suggests there will be an equal chance of above or below average precipitation.

 

October, November, December:   This model reflects the influence of La Nina.  It paints above average temperatures over much of the country, especially the Desert southwest, and to a lesser extent, central California.  Drier than average conditions are anticipated over southern California while northern California could possibly luck out with near average rainfall.  Above average precipitation is expected over the Pacific Northwest.

 

Winds Discussion:  Winds during the afternoons through Thursday will be generally at or less than 10 MPH and variable in nature.  During the night and morning hours, winds will be generally at or less than 5 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.  Winds Friday, especially during the afternoon and evening, will increase out of the northwest at 15 to 25 MPH with stronger gusts, especially along the west side.

  

Rain Discussion: I want to keep a slight chance of light showers in the forecast for later Friday night and Saturday, mainly during the morning hours as a rapidly moving but pretty dry front moves through.  The chance of measurable rain at any given location is low with the highest risk being near the Sierra Nevada foothills north of Kern County.  It’s possible drizzle or very light rain may occur near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains Saturday and Saturday night due to upsloping.  A weak secondary wave will move through Sunday, renewing the threat of light snow showers over the Sierra Nevada and possibly even the Tehachapi Mountains.  Medium range models indicate next week will be dry.

 

Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees through Friday morning and more than likely Saturday morning, although it’s possible that, if skies clear, a few locations could approach 32 mainly from Fresno County north.  Here is the situation.  A vigorous, dry cold low will move into Nevada Saturday.  California will be flanked on the western side of this system as upper level high pressure builds northward off shore.  This will create a north/northwest flow aloft.  By Monday, a brief but strong off shore flow combined with cold air aloft will move into the valley.  With gusty northwesterly winds, dew points will probably plummet into the 20s by Sunday morning.  on Sunday, coldest locations could dip to 28 to 30 degrees and 27 to 29 degrees Monday and Tuesday.  These are those typical cold spots with most flatland locations coming in at 29 to 32.  We are still a considerable distance away from this event and, of course, we will tweak this forecast as we move along, but my confidence is high widespread frost will occur beginning Sunday, but more so Monday and Tuesday.  Expect slow moderation by the middle of next week.

 

Air Quality Expectations: With the tremendous amount of smoke over the valley floor, the San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for November 2, 2020:

 

Today’s air quality is listed as moderate for Merced County.  The air quality for the rest of the valley is deemed unhealthy for sensitive groups. 

 

The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com.  The option to use a specific address is available.

 

For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires

 

In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Upper 30s to the lower 40s.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 78%/30%, Porterville, 86%/25%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 90%.  Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .78, Parlier .70, Blackwell Corners .79, Arvin .88, Orange Cove .81, Porterville .77, Delano .74. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 63, Parlier 62, Blackwell 71, Arvin, 64, Orange Cove 68, Porterville 65, Delano 59

Record Temperatures: 88/33. Average Temperatures: 71/44

Heating Degree Days This Season: 46,  -75

 

Courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for November So Far: 64.3 +6.8

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  .00,  -.69  Month to Date: .00,  -.06

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,  .T, +or-  -.33.   Month to date .00,  -.03

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 0, Parlier, 0, Arvin,  0,Shafter, Stratford, 0, Delano, 0, Lindcove, 0, Porterville 0

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:26 am   Sunset: 4:58 pm   Hours of Daylight:  10:34

 

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1600 /  81 /  42 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  80 /  43 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  80 /  53 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  82 /  47 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  83 /  45 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1500 /  81 /  57 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  80 /  48 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1600 /   M /   M / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  82 /  51 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1600 /   M /   M / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  80 /  45 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.92    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.75    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.91    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.98    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.69    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.60    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00       T     0    0.00     0     0.33     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.33     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00       T     0    0.00     0     0.64    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.69    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.67    13.95

 

Next report: November 3, 2020/pm