November 6, 2020
Summary: Temperatures at this hour are running anywhere from 7 to 15 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago north of Kern County. In Kern County, temperatures are 3 to 5 degrees cooler. Strong, gusty, northwesterly winds are moving down the valley. Currently, winds at the FAT are sustained at 22 MPH. Porterville has sustained winds of 16 MPH while winds are gusting to 31 at Lemoore and 24 at Visalia.
Doppler radar shows light showers have spread down as far as Madera County in the Sierra Nevada. Radar overall, though, is sparse. The center of the first of two low pressure systems is now entering northern California and will drop right over central California by sunrise Saturday. models continue to indicate the best chance of showers will be along the Coast Range and possibly the far west side of the San Joaquin Valley with scattered showers elsewhere. Even the Sierra Nevada may not pick up much precipitation with this first system. Things look better as the second system arrives late Saturday night and Sunday.
This storm hasn’t really even developed yet, but all the models show a rapidly developing low over the Pacific Northwest Saturday, dropping into northern and central California Sunday. The pool of air associated with this storm is quite cold for this early in the season. Mid 50s are all we can anticipate for high temperatures Saturday and possibly only low to mid 50s Sunday. The first widespread frost event of the season, at least in some areas, will begin Monday and just about everywhere else Tuesday. More in the frost discussion below.
Models continue to show the eastern Pacific high remaining off shore for all of next week. The next low pressure system of note will move through the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night then down into the Great Basin Wednesday. For now, this appears to be a dry event for central California. However, models continue to indicate a moist west/northwest flow across the Pacific and into the Pacific Northwest and northern California next weekend, possibly affecting areas from Fresno County north.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy tonight with scattered light showers, mainly after midnight. Highest potential for showers will be along the west side. Scattered light showers Saturday through Saturday night. showers likely Sunday with a small chance of isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. Clearing Sunday night, but remaining partly to mostly cloudy in Kern and eastern Tulare County into Monday morning. mostly clear Monday afternoon through Tuesday night. partly cloudy Wednesday and Wednesday night. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday through Friday night. Patchy morning fog Tuesday through Friday mornings.
Short Term:
| Madera 41/56/40/54 | Reedley 42/57/41/54 | Dinuba 41/56/40/53 | |
| Porterville 43/57/41/54 | Lindsay 42/57/40/53 | Delano 44/57/41/55 | |
| Bakersfield 47/55/45/53 | Taft 48/55/46/53 | Arvin 45/54/43/52 | |
| Lamont 46/55/45/53 | Pixley 43/57/41/54 | Tulare 41/56/40/53 | |
| Woodlake 42/56/40/54 | Hanford 42/57/40/55 | Orosi 41/56/40/54 | |
Winds: Expect gusty winds out of the northwest at 15 to 25 MPH with locally stronger gusts into the evening hours. Winds will decrease to 8 to 15 MPH tonight. Winds Saturday through Sunday will be mostly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly near showers. Winds will diminish Sunday evening with light to near calm winds late Sunday night and Monday.
Rain: Interestingly enough, short term, high resolution model information shows the greatest potential of showers tonight and Saturday will be over the Coast Range westward to off shore with just light, scattered showers elsewhere. That will begin to change late Saturday night through Sunday evening as the second, colder low arrives. The risk factor for showers at that time will be higher throughout the valley.
Rainfall amounts will generally be at or less than .20 from tonight through Sunday night. Locally more is possible, especially along the far west side. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon, though those are slight chances, with a greater risk Sunday afternoon. Where and if thunderstorms occur, locally as much as .33 could occur. For now, the pattern looks dry Monday through Friday. Medium range models continue to pick up on a moist, west/northwest flow across the Pacific and into the Pacific Northwest and northern California from roughly Fresno County north.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing through Sunday morning. the air mass swinging in behind Sunday’s cold core low is quite cold, especially for this early in the season. On Monday morning, we may very well see clouds banked up against the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains and the valley facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada, mainly in Tulare County. For now, I believe Madera, Fresno, and Kings Counties will clear. That is where the greatest risk of below freezing temperatures will be Monday morning. most models show Porterville in the lower 30s Monday morning, though a few spit out mid 30s. Theoretically, that puts frost pockets in the 27 to 28 degree range in river bottom and similar locations. It’s also possible Kern and Tulare Counties clear out in the early morning hours Monday, increasing the risk of below freezing temperatures.
Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will see below freezing temperatures on a more widespread winds as near calm winds and clear skies prevail. Coldest unprotected low lying areas could potentially dip to 27 to 28 degrees with most flat terrain operations ranging from 29 to 33 with hillsides slightly above freezing.
Slow moderation will occur Thursday and Friday as the flow aloft becomes more west/northwest, pumping in milder air above the valley floor. We may receive enough ground moisture for patchy fog from Tuesday morning and beyond, but at this time I wouldn’t expect it to be widespread enough to inhibit frost.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
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Porterville
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Ivanhoe
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Woodlake
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| Strathmore
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Mcfarland
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Ducor
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Tea Pot Dome
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| Lindsay
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Exeter
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Famoso
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Madera
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| Belridge
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Delano
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North Bakersfield
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Orosi
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| Orange Cove
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Lindcove
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Lindcove Hillside
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Sanger River Bottom
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| Root Creek
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Venice Hill
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Rosedale
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Jasmine
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| Arvin
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Lamont
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Plainview
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Mettler
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| Edison
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Maricopa
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Holland Creek
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Tivy Valley
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| Kite Road South
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Kite Road North
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AF=Above Freezing
Next report: November 7/morning