November 9, 2020
Summary: After a weekend of showers, isolated thunderstorms, gusty winds, and small hail in a few locations, skies have cleared out. The last of the upslope clouds in Kern County exited, stage left, about 3:00am. With clear skies during the early morning hours, temperatures plummeted into the upper 20s to the lower 30s with the exception of Kern County where temperatures were generally in the low to mid 30s. tonight will be marginally colder, which is discussed below in the frost section.
The second vigorous low pressure system has shifted eastward and is now centered over southeast Utah. From today through Thursday, a broad area of low pressure will continue to cover the western states as the eastern Pacific high remains several hundred miles off shore. Even though skies are clear, the air aloft is very cold. The freezing level this morning is only at 4,100 feet and 5,100 feet over Oakland.
The next challenge will be in the form of a trough of low pressure and its associated cold front, which will move through late Thursday night and Friday. Most models this morning are more optimistic on the chance of precipitation for central California. Some now indicate showers will reach as far south as the Kern County mountains on Friday. This would be a decent rain event for northern California. In fact, northern California will receive an abundance of precipitation not only Friday, but Saturday and Saturday night as well as a moist, west to east jet stream slams Oregon and northern California beneath an intense low off the Washington coast. The rain line is also shown to be a bit further south on this system, so I’m going to add a chance of showers from mainly Fresno County northward Saturday and Saturday night.
If models are correct, a series of storms could affect northern and central California during the early to mid week time frame next week.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Wednesday night. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday. Increasing cloudiness Thursday night with a chance of showers from Fresno County north by sunrise. Showers likely Friday. Mostly cloudy Friday night. a chance of showers again Saturday through Saturday night, mainly from Fresno County north. Variable cloudiness Sunday through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 54/28/58/29/59 | Reedley 55/28/57/29/60 | Dinuba 53/27/57/28/58 |
| Porterville 54/28/57/28/59 | Lindsay 54/27/58/28/60 | Delano 53/29/58/30/59 |
| Bakersfield 53/35/56/37/60 | Taft 55/35/55/39/60 | Arvin 53/30/55/31/61 |
| Lamont 53/30/55/33/61 | Pixley 54/28/58/29/59 | Tulare 53/27/58/28/58 |
| Woodlake 54/28/58/29/59 | Hanford 55/28/58/29/59 | Orosi 53/27/58/28/59 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Partly cloudy 35/65 |
Friday
Showers likely 47/66
|
Saturday
Chance of showers 46/65 |
Sunday
Mostly cloudy 41/65 |
Monday
Mostly cloudy 42/67 |
Two Week Outlook: November 16 through November 22: Fortunately, this model continues to indicate that the chance of precipitation in central California will be fairly high. Temperatures under this pattern will be higher than seasonal norms.
October: This model essentially depicts the entire lower 48 with above average temperatures over the next 30 days. The most pronounced temperature anomalies will be over the Desert Southwest. This model also suggests there will be an equal chance of above or below average precipitation.
October, November, December: This model reflects the influence of La Nina. It paints above average temperatures over much of the country, especially the Desert southwest, and to a lesser extent, central California. Drier than average conditions are anticipated over southern California while northern California could possibly luck out with near average rainfall. Above average precipitation is expected over the Pacific Northwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the afternoon will be variable to no more than 10 MPH. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally at or less than 5 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Dry weather will continue through at least Thursday evening. The chance of rain will again increase by sunrise Friday from Fresno County northward and throughout the valley during the day Friday. For now, amounts of rain south of Fresno County look pretty anemic with perhaps a tenth or two north of Fresno County. However, this pattern is favorable for heavy amounts of snow over the high Sierra. Overall, the pattern from Friday through much of next week is for a strong low to be situated off of British Columbia and Washington state with the jet stream flanked underneath the low into Oregon and northern California. This pattern is favorable for moving moist, Pacific storms into the northern half of California and possibly further south from Saturday night into next week. The new two week model is indicating a favorable pattern for moving milder storms into California from time to time.
Frost Discussion: Widespread upper 20s and lower 30s are prevalent this morning as of 6:00am with low to mid 30s in Kern County. Tonight should be a degree or two colder at most locations as the environment stabilizes under generally clear skies with patchy fog.
Coldest river bottom and similar sink hole type locations will drop to 26 to 27 tonight with most flat terrain locations ranging from 28 to 31. Hillsides will generally be in the low to mid 30s.
The inversion tonight will be more favorable with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 4 to 7 degrees warmer at most locations.
Temperatures at the very coldest locations tonight will reach the freezing mark at around 10:00 to 11:00 pm and 28 degrees by 3:00am. This is for those traditional cold spots. Temperatures will rise above freezing by 8:30 to 9:00am Tuesday. Temperatures Wednesday morning will be one to two degrees milder at most locations. Temperatures Thursday morning will generally be in the low to mid 30s with above freezing temperatures from Friday on as the pattern changes and winds aloft become west/northwest.
Longer range models at this time are not showing anything that would result in a frost or freeze event, so once we get past Wednesday morning, above freezing conditions will prevail for quite some time.
Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for November 9, 2020:
Today’s air quality is listed as good for the entire growing area except for Tulare and Kern Counties, where the air quality is listed as moderate.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Kern, Low to mid 30s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/84%, Porterville, 97%/57%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .68, Parlier .55, Blackwell Corners .68, Arvin .71, Orange Cove .62, Porterville .55, Delano .51. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 63, Parlier 61, Blackwell 70, Arvin, 63, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 63, Delano 56
Record Temperatures: 85/33. Average Temperatures: 68/42
Heating Degree Days This Season: 101, -76
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 57.9 +1.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .11, -.78 Month to Date: .11, -.15
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .39, +or- -.06. Month to date .39, +.24
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 11, Parlier, 18, Arvin, 4, Shafter,n 5, Stratford, 23, Delano, 4, Lindcove, 10, Porterville, 10
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:32 am Sunset: 4:53 pm Hours of Daylight: 10:22
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 60 / 42 / T /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 60 / 43 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 57 / 46 / 0.01 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 59 / 41 / T /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 61 / 39 / 0.01 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 58 / 47 / 0.01 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 55 / 43 / 0.01 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1548 / 59 / 39 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 57 / 46 / 0.02 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON T T 0 0.00 0 1.24 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 1.00 13.11
MERCED T 0.48 41 0.00 0 1.18 12.50
MADERA T 0.06 5 0.00 0 1.23 12.02
FRESNO 0.01 0.11 12 0.00 0 0.89 11.50
HANFORD T 0.09 10 0.00 0 0.87 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.01 0.39 87 0.00 0 0.45 6.47
BISHOP T T 0 0.00 0 0.42 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.24 28 0.00 0 0.87 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.06 0.26 29 0.00 0 0.89 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.01 0.24 27 0.00 0 0.90 13.95
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
28 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
27 |
Woodlake
27 |
| Strathmore
28 |
McFarland
29 |
Ducor
29 |
Tea Pot Dome
28 |
| Lindsay
27 |
Exeter
27 |
Famoso
29 |
Madera
28 |
| Belridge
27 |
Delano
29 |
North Bakersfield
29 |
Orosi
27 |
| Orange Cove
27 |
Lindcove
27 |
Lindcove Hillside
32 |
Sanger River Bottom
26 |
| Root Creek
27 |
Venice Hill
28 |
Rosedale
29 |
Jasmine
29 |
| Arvin
30 |
Lamont
30 |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
28 |
| Edison
31 |
Maricopa
27 |
Holland Creek
29 |
Tivy Valley
27 |
| Kite Road South
30 |
Kite Road North
27 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: November 9/pm