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Forecast

November 13, 2020/report

Summary: showers as of the time of this writing had spread as far south as the northern Sacramento Valley ahead of a cold front approaching the northwest California coast.  The parent low is off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, generating heavy rain and high winds over the Pacific Northwest.

 

As the front moves into central California late this afternoon and tonight, it will lose much of its upper air support.  The last couple of models runs have shown measurable rain as far south as a Monterey/Merced/Kings Canyon line and the latest models continue that trend this morning with possibly some sprinkles as far south as Fresno County.  After this system moves through later tonight, a flat zone of upper level high pressure will extend from off shore California into the Great Basin.  The high will shift eastward Monday and Tuesday with temperatures rising to above seasonal values

 

The next major change in the pattern will occur about the middle of next week.  Models continue to not only have difficulty with the timing of two weather system that will move through, but also the possible intensity.  For now, I believe the best course of action is to call for a minimal chance of showers Wednesday through Friday of next week, especially from Fresno County northward and tweak the forecast as we go along.

 

Forecast: Increasing clouds later today.  Mostly cloudy tonight and Saturday morning.  Sprinkles or isolated light showers will be possible, but not likely, from Fresno County north.  Clearing Saturday afternoon.  Mostly clear Saturday night through Tuesday.  Increasing clouds Tuesday night.  variable cloudiness Wednesday through Friday with a small chance of showers each day, mainly from Fresno County north.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 63/44/63/40/64 Reedley 65/45/63/41/63 Dinuba 63/43/62/39/63
Porterville 65/45/63/40/64 Lindsay 64/43/63/39/64 Delano 65/45/63/41/64
Bakersfield 66/48/63/45/65 Taft 64/49/63/47/64 Arvin 66/46/63/45/64
Lamont 65/45/63/42/64 Pixley 64/44/63/40/63 Tulare 63/43/62/39/63
Woodlake 64/42/63/38/63 Hanford 64/45/63/40/64 Orosi 63/42/63/38/63

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Monday

Mostly clear

39/68

Tuesday

Mostly clear

41/72

Wednesday

Slight chance of showers

47/68

Thursday

Slight chance of showers

48/69

Friday

Slight chance of showers

47/63

 

Two Week Outlook:  November 20 through the 26th:  This model is indicating temperatures during this time frame will again fall below average.  This model does not favor either above or below average precipitation, so at least a minimal chance of rain is possible.

 

Winds Discussion:  Winds during the afternoon will be variable to no more than 10 MPH.  Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally at or less than 5 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain Discussion: Measurable rain is possible as far south as Merced County late this afternoon into the later overnight hours.  It’s possible isolated light showers or sprinkles could occur as far south as Fresno County.  Measurable rain is unlikely south of Merced County.  Dry weather will return late tonight and continue through at least Tuesday night.  models are still being contrary regarding at least one trough of low pressure and possibly two Wednesday through Friday of next week.  For now, none of these models indicates a significant rain event, but a chance for light showers mainly from Fresno County north.  Since timing is a real issue, we’ll just keep a minimal chance of showers in the forecast for mainly Fresno County northward Thursday night and Friday

 

Frost Discussion:  In and out high clouds last night in part helped keep temperatures above freezing.  Skies tonight will be mostly clear through at least the early morning hours, so coldest locations tonight could drop down to 30 to 32 or so.  Most locations, however, will range from between 33 and 37 degrees.  From Saturday morning and beyond, there will be no chance of frost for at least the following week to ten days.

 

Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for November 13, 2020:

 

Today’s air quality is listed as unsafe for sensitive groups in Kern and Fresno Counties while the remainder of the growing region has air quality listed as moderate.      

 

The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com.  The option to use a specific address is available.

 

For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires

 

In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s.  Kern, Upper 30s to the lower 40s.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/39%, Porterville, 95%/32%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 30%.  Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 20%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .57, Parlier .47, Blackwell Corners .58, Arvin .57, Orange Cove .49, Porterville .46, Delano .41. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 61, Parlier 55, Blackwell 64, Arvin, 60, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 57, Delano 52

Record Temperatures: 83/28. Average Temperatures: 66/41

Heating Degree Days This Season: 174, -48

 

Courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for this month So Far: 54.0 -1.4

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  .11,  -.93  Month to Date: .11,  -.30

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,  .39, +or-  -.14.   Month to date .39,  +.16

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 26, Parlier, 33, Arvin, 16, Shafter, 19, Stratford, 38, Delano, 25, Lindcove, 26, Porterville, 33

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:36 am   Sunset: 4:50 pm   Hours of Daylight:  10:15

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1600 /  65 /  38 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  65 /  36 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  66 /  45 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  66 /  37 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  65 /  37 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1500 /  65 /  43 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  65 /  39 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1600 /  66 /  42 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  68 /  39 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  62 /  38 / 0.00 /

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00       T     0    0.00     0     1.45    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00       T     0    0.00     0     1.16    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    0.48    36    0.00     0     1.34    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.06     4    0.00     0     1.39    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.11    11    0.00     0     1.04    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.09     9    0.00     0     1.01    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.39    74    0.00     0     0.53     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00       T     0    0.00     0     0.49     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.24    23    0.00     0     1.03    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.26    25    0.00     0     1.03    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.24    22    0.00     0     1.08    13.95

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

Af

Porterville

Af

Ivanhoe

Af

Woodlake

Af

Strathmore

Af

McFarland

Af

Ducor

Af

Tea Pot Dome

Af

Lindsay

Af

Exeter

32

Famoso

Af

Madera

Af

Belridge

Af

Delano

Af

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

Af

Orange Cove

Af

Lindcove

Af

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

Af

Root creek

Af

Venice hill

Af

Rosedale

Af

Jasmine

Af

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

Af

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

Af

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

Af

AF=Above Freezing

 

Next report: November 13/pm