November 14, 2020
Summary: A flat zone of upper level high pressure is now taking shape off the central and southern California coast. This will drive the storm track further north into the Pacific Northwest through Monday. The high will shift eastward to a position just off the northern Baja/southern California coast on Monday, resulting in a warming trend. Already this morning, the air aloft has warmed considerably as the latest freezing level sounding above Oakland indicated a freezing level all the way up to 14,000 feet.. models have changed again on handling a trough of low pressure off the California coast. Most models now indicate the trough will move through Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday, a full 24 hours earlier than previous models had projected. This does not appear to be a significant precipitation event with most of the light showers being north of Kern County Tuesday into early Wednesday with the likelihood of light showers from Fresno County north.
Unfortunately this appears to be a one storm event as a blocking ridge of upper level high pressure builds northward along the coast next Thursday and continues through next weekend. The flow aloft during this entire period will be generally out of the west, maintaining marginally above average temperatures through Wednesday then cooling off a bit Thursday and Friday of next week as a cooler air mass feeds in behind the exiting trough of low pressure.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Monday night. increasing cloudiness Tuesday morning. A chance of light showers late Tuesday through Wednesday morning. partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 67/37/68/37/69 | Reedley 68/37/68/38/70 | Dinuba 66/37/67/37/69 |
| Porterville 68/36/67/38/71 | Lindsay 67/37/68/37/70 | Delano 69/39/69/40/71 |
| Bakersfield 67/45/67/46/73 | Taft 68/48/66/48/72 | Arvin 69/42/69/43/73 |
| Lamont 67/42/66/44/72 | Pixley 68/37/67/37/70 | Tulare 67/36/67/37/68 |
| Woodlake 67/36/67/37/69 | Hanford 68/38/68/38/70 | Orosi 66/35/67/36/69 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
PM showers possible 45/72 |
Wednesday
AM showers possible 46/68 |
Thursday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 42/62 |
Friday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 41/62 |
Saturday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 39/62 |
Two Week Outlook: November 20 through the 26th: This model is indicating temperatures during this time frame will again fall below average. This model does not favor either above or below average precipitation, so at least a minimal chance of rain is possible.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the afternoon will be variable to no more than 10 MPH. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally at or less than 5 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Models have moved back the timing of a trough of low pressure to Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Models have portrayed this system all along as being moisture starved with most of the light shower activity being north of Kern County. Even so, the chance of light showers north of Kern County looks pretty high with only light amounts anticipated. Models now show the trough moving into the Great Basin by Thursday morning, returning central California into a dry pattern lasting at least through next weekend.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing tonight but only slightly above in the coldest regions. Temperatures through Monday morning will generally range from 33 to 38 with readings in the upper 30s to lower 40s in Kern County. Increasing cloud cover Tuesday through Thursday will keep temperatures above freezing. The air mass spilling in behind a trough of low pressure at mid week will not be particularly cold with generally a westerly flow aloft next week through next weekend, keeping conditions above freezing.
Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for November 14, 2020:
Today’s air quality is listed as moderate for the entire growing region.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern, Low to mid 50s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 99%/30%, Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 40%. Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .53, Parlier .45, Blackwell Corners .54, Arvin .52, Orange Cove .45, Porterville .42, Delano .40. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 54, Blackwell 63, Arvin, 59, Orange Cove 60, Porterville 56, Delano 51
Record Temperatures: 79/30. Average Temperatures: 66/41
Heating Degree Days This Season: 188, -46
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 53.8 -1.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .11, -.96 Month to Date: .11, -.33
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .39, +or- -.16. Month to date .39, +.14
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 67, Parlier, 78, Arvin, 55, Shafter, 49, Stratford, 75, Delano, 63, Lindcove, 64, Porterville, 80
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:38 am Sunset: 4:49 pm Hours of Daylight: 10:13
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 64 / 34 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 67 / 34 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 68 / 40 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 68 / 34 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 68 / 47 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 70 / 41 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DHM / 68 / 36 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1553 / 70 / 38 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1500 / 68 / 36 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 64 / M / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON T T 0 0.00 0 1.50 14.06
MODESTO M T 0 0.00 0 1.20 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.48 35 0.00 0 1.37 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.06 4 0.00 0 1.43 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.11 10 0.00 0 1.07 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.09 9 0.00 0 1.05 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.39 71 0.00 0 0.55 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.50 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.24 22 0.00 0 1.07 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.26 25 0.00 0 1.06 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.24 21 0.00 0 1.12 13.95
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
Af |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
Af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
Af |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
Af |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
Af |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
Af |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
Af |
| Root creek
Af |
Venice hill
Af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
Af |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: November 14/pm