Summary: infrared satellite imagery, the broad band type that picks up low level clouds and fog, indicates there is a great deal of fog up the center of the valley from extreme northern Kern County through Merced County. The low sun angle and very short days of the late fall season mean some areas will be slow to burn off.
Satellite imagery shows a weak low pressure system roughly 300 miles off the central coast. It will weaken further and nudge eastward through southern California by a weak trough of low pressure stretching from British Columbia to southern California Sunday night and Monday. Behind this system will be a northwesterly flow riding along the eastern rim of high pressure off the Pacific coast. The high will move inland Tuesday then another weak trough of low pressure will move through Wednesday with very little fanfare.
The air above the valley floor has warmed considerably. The latest balloon sounding above Vandenburg AFB indicated a freezing level of 12,700 feet and 11,900 feet over Oakland.
Models are trending in a bit of a different direction for the latter part of the work week and the coming holiday weekend. Most models are now showing a large high moving eastward into western Canada, allowing a cooler and dry air mass to dive southward into the western U.S. The flow aloft may actually become north/northeast which could potentially settle a dry air mass onto the valley floor, increasing the chance of frost beginning Friday morning. medium range models are no longer pointing to a cold trough diving into the interior west in early December. This is good news for frost concerns.
If you’re hoping for precipitation, don’t expect any for the next week to ten days.
Forecast: Other than occasional areas of low clouds and night and morning fog, it will be mostly clear through Sunday morning. partly cloudy Sunday afternoon through Monday with patchy night and morning fog. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 60/34/64/34/61 | Reedley 62/35/64/35/60 | Dinuba 59/33/64/33/60 |
| Porterville 62/34/64/34/61 | Lindsay 62/33/64/33/61 | Delano 62/36/64/36/60 |
| Bakersfield 62/43/63/41/59 | Taft 62/45/64/43/60 | Arvin 63/38/64/38/59 |
| Lamont 63/37/64/37/60 | Pixley 62/34/64/34/60 | Tulare 59/33/62/33/59 |
| Woodlake 61/33/63/33/60 | Hanford 61/35/64/36/61 | Orosi 61/32/64/32/60 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 35/63 |
Wednesday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 36/63 |
Thanksgiving
Patchy fog/mostly clear 34/59 |
Friday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 31/61 |
Saturday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 30/62 |
Two Week Outlook: November 28 through December 4 this model points to a continuation of the pattern we’ve seen in recent weeks. Storms will move through the Pacific Northwest, clipping northern California from time to time with central California remaining largely dry. Anticipate somewhat above average temperatures.
December: This model shows above average temperatures during the month of December. Southern California should experience below average precipitation. There is some hope for northern and central California, however, as this model spits out equal chances of above or below average rainfall. We’re hoping for the above average side of things.
December, January, February: This model definitely reflects a La Nina pattern, which is when ocean temperatures are below average through the equatorial waters off of Peru, extending into the mid Pacific. Typically, this results in above average temperatures for much of the southern half of the U.S., including California, with unfortunately below average precipitation for California including the valley.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be variable to no more than 10 MPH while winds during the night through mid morning hours will be generally at or less than 5 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions through Tuesday.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to possibly 10 days.
Frost Discussion: Low to mid 30s were widespread last night. navelencia and Reedley, as of 6:00am, reported lows of 32 while Exeter chilled down to 33 degrees. Similar conditions can be expected tonight.
Conditions for Monday morning will depend on the cloud cover left behind by a weak trough of low pressure moving through. My feeling is most locations will be marginally milder Monday morning. the flow behind the trough will be out of the northwest which will issue in a marginally cooler air mass, but nothing serious. I anticipate readings will generally run in the 30s Tuesday through Thanksgiving Day.
Models are getting a bit more interesting, however, for the late part of the workweek through next weekend. The majority show a large high building off the Pacific coast with a ridge into western Canada. This creates a north/northeast flow into the western U.S., spreading cold, dry air into Nevada and even into interior sections of southern California. It’s possible some of this cooler, drier air could flow down the valley, setting the stage for some frost nights possibly as early as Friday morning and lasting into the early part of next week. If someone were to pin me down on temperature potential, I would have to say upper 20s and lower 30s would be possible.
Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for November 21, 2020:
Today’s air quality is listed as good for Merced County. The rest of the growing region has moderate air quality.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern, Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 98%/57%, Porterville, 98%/62%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 50%. Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .56, Parlier .43, Blackwell Corners .58, Arvin .60, Orange Cove .42, Porterville .43, Delano .46. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 57, Blackwell 62, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 57, Delano 52
Record Temperatures: 81/30. Average Temperatures: 63/39
Heating Degree Days This Season: 253, -77
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 54.4 +.0.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .28, -1.04, Month to Date: .28, -.41
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .39, +or- -.31. Month to date .39, -.01
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 96, Parlier, 113, Arvin, 73, Shafter, 77, Stratford, 110, Delano, 106, Lindcove, 113, Porterville, 153
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:45 am Sunset: 4:45 pm Hours of Daylight: 10:00
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 60 / 39 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 61 / 39 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 60 / 45 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 60 / 38 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 61 / 36 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 58 / 46 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 59 / 39 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1534 / 58 / 43 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 59 / 40 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 61 / 43 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.09 5 0.00 0 1.91 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.10 7 0.00 0 1.53 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.08 66 0.00 0 1.64 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.16 9 0.00 0 1.69 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.28 21 0.00 0 1.32 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.13 10 0.00 0 1.28 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.39 56 0.37 53 0.70 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 0.06 9 0.64 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.37 26 T 0 1.42 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.28 22 0.02 2 1.28 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.25 17 0.02 1 1.44 13.95
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
Af |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
32 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
32 |
Venice hill
Af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
Af |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: November 21/pm