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Forecast

November 22, 2020/report

November 22, 2020

Both surface observation and infrared satellite imagery indicate there’s a considerable amount of fog, especially up the 99 corridor from southern Tulare County up through Merced County.  Visalia, Hanford, and Merced each reported a visibility of less than ¼ mile while Fresno and Madera are reporting 2 ½ miles and 4 miles at both Bakersfield and Porterville.

 

In the upper atmosphere, conditions are still relatively warm as indicated by the balloon sounding over Oakland this morning.  the freezing level was pegged at 10,900 feet.

 

In the big picture, a weak trough  of low pressure is just off the northern California coast and will slip into the Great Basin Monday.  A fairly strong push of northwesterly winds aloft behind this system will no doubt cause upslope clouds to form against the Tehachapi Mountains and the southern Sierra Nevada from later tonight through Monday night.  through Wednesday, a progressive pattern will be in place as high pressure moves inland only to be replaced by weak waves of low pressure, the last of which will move through Wednesday well to our north.

 

On Thanksgiving Day, a cold trough of low pressure will dig southward into the interior west while a southwest to northeast oriented high pressure system builds just off shore with a ridge extending into western Canada.  The squeeze play between the trough to our east and the high just to our west will generate a north/northeast flow aloft.  Surface high pressure will also take place Thursday and Friday, creating a robust off shore flow.  It’s possible a weak Mono wind event could take place if the configuration sets up just right.  This pattern would favor moving a cooler air mass into central California, but more importantly would bring drier air to the valley floor.  This may set the stage for some cold nights coming up beginning Friday, which is discussed n the frost summary below.

 

Forecast:  Areas of fog and low clouds this morning.  Becoming mostly clear this afternoon.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy tonight, but possibly mostly cloudy in portions of Kern and Tulare Counties.  Mostly clear Tuesday through Thursday with patchy night and morning fog.  Mostly clear Friday through Sunday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 63/34/60/33/62 Reedley 63/33/61/31/63 Dinuba 61/34/60/32/61
Porterville 64/35/61/34/62 Lindsay 63/32/61/32/62 Delano 64/36/60/36/63
Bakersfield 65/41/60/40/63 Taft 65/44/60/42/63 Arvin 65/37/60/38/64
Lamont 64/37/60/36/63 Pixley 63/34/61/34/62 Tulare 62/33/61/33/61
Woodlake 62/33/60/33/62 Hanford 63/35/61/34/63 Orosi 62/32/61/32/62

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Wednesday

Patchy fog/mostly clear

35/61

Thanksgiving

Patchy fog/mostly clear

34/62

Friday

Patchy fog/mostly clear

32/61

Saturday

Patchy fog/mostly clear

30/62

Sunday

Patchy fog/mostly clear

31/65

 

Two Week Outlook:  November 28 through December 4  this model points to a continuation of the pattern we’ve seen in recent weeks.  Storms will move through the Pacific Northwest, clipping northern California from time to time with central California remaining largely dry.  Anticipate somewhat above average temperatures.

 

December: This model shows above average temperatures during the month of December.  Southern California should experience below average precipitation.  There is some hope for northern and central California, however, as this model spits out equal chances of above or below average rainfall.  We’re hoping for the above average side of things. 

 

December, January, February: This model definitely reflects a La Nina pattern, which is when ocean temperatures are below average through the equatorial waters off of Peru, extending into the mid Pacific.  Typically, this results in above average temperatures for much of the southern half of the U.S., including California, with unfortunately below average precipitation for California including the valley. 

 

Winds Discussion:  Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be variable to no more than 10 MPH while winds during the night through mid morning hours will be generally at or less than 5 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions through Wednesday.

 

Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to possibly 10 days.

 

Frost Discussion:  Most locations throughout the district ranged from 33 to 37 degrees.  As of 6:00am, Fowler was the coldest I could find at 31 followed by Reedley at 32 while Ivanhoe and Lindsay came in at 33.  Similar conditions can be expected each morning through Thanksgiving with the coldest spots down to 30 to 31 degrees with most other locations ranging in the 30s.

 

I still have my eye on a pattern that will begin to evolve Thanksgiving Day.  A cold trough of low pressure will dig southward into the Great Basin while a strong upper high builds along the eastern Pacific, ridging into western Canada.  The squeeze play between the trough and the off shore high will generate a north/northeast flow.  Surface high pressure will also begin to follow the trough I not the Great Basin, resulting in off shore surface flow.  The combination of these factors has the potential of driving a drier air mass down the valley with lower dew points.  For now, I’m looking at upper 20s to lower 30s as early as Friday morning at most locations, but more so Saturday through Monday.  We are still quite a ways away from this possibility, but suffice it to say the air mass will not be critically cold, just fairly dry.

 

Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for November 22, 2020:

 

Today’s air quality is listed as moderate for Kings, Tulare, and Merced Counties.  The air quality in the remainder of the growing region is unsafe for sensitive groups. 

 

The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com.  The option to use a specific address is available.

 

For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires

 

In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Mid to upper 40s.  Kern, Low to mid 40s.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, NA Porterville, NA

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 70%.  Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 70%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .53, Parlier .40, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .56, Orange Cove .40, Porterville .40, Delano .44. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 56, Blackwell 62, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 60, Porterville 57, Delano 52

Record Temperatures: 81/30. Average Temperatures: 62/38

Heating Degree Days This Season: 268, -77

 

Courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for this month So Far: 54.2 +.0.6

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  .28,  -1.08,  Month to Date: .28,  -.45

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,  .39, +or-  -.33.   Month to date .39,  -.03

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 106, Parlier, 126,  Arvin, 84, Shafter, 82, Stratford, 122, Delano, 116, Lindcove, 126, Porterville, 165

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:46 am   Sunset: 4:45 pm   Hours of Daylight:  10:00

 

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1600 /  61 /  33 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1500 /  62 /  34 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  61 /  42 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  62 /  38 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  62 /  33 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  62 /  42 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  62 /  37 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /  62 /  38 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  65 /  38 / 0.00 /

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    0.09     5    0.00     0     1.97    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    0.10     6    0.00     0     1.58    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    1.08    64    0.00     0     1.69    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.16     9    0.00     0     1.74    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.28    21    0.00     0     1.36    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.13    10    0.00     0     1.31    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.39    54    0.37    51     0.72     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00       T     0    0.06     9     0.65     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.37    25       T     0     1.48    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.28    21    0.02     2     1.32    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.25    17    0.02     1     1.49    13.95

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

Af

Porterville

Af

Ivanhoe

32

Woodlake

32

Strathmore

Af

McFarland

32

Ducor

Af

Tea Pot Dome

Af

Lindsay

Af

Exeter

32

Famoso

Af

Madera

Af

Belridge

32

Delano

Af

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

32

Orange Cove

Af

Lindcove

32

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

30

Root Creek

32

Venice hill

Af

Rosedale

Af

Jasmine

Af

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

Af

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

Af

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

Af

AF=Above Freezing

 

Next report: November 23/am