Summary: The trough of low pressure which was moving through this morning has now moved into Nevada. Winds have picked up marginally this afternoon north of roughly a Visalia/Hanford line. As of 2:00pm, winds at Hanford, Fresno, and Merced were sustained at 10 MPH. not overly impressive, but it does illustrate a marginally cooler air mass moving down the valley. Currently, pressure is 8.8 millibars lower at Las Vegas than San Francisco.
Skies are mostly clear. Some upslope clouds are beginning to develop against the Sierra Nevada foothills. They may continue to regenerate during the course of the night in Kern County and eastern Tulare County.
A ridge of upper level high pressure will quickly build in from the west tonight, recapping the valley only to be quickly followed by another weak trough. This system, though, will mainly be confined to the Pacific Northwest and the northern ¼ of California. This system will be important for overnight low temperatures later in the week, however. As it moves eastward, it will morph into a northeast to southwest oriented trough of low pressure extending from central Canada southwestward into the Desert Southwest.
In the meantime, a massive ridge of upper level high pressure will be blanketing the eastern Pacific with a big ridge jutting northeastward into western Canada. The squeeze play between the two systems will result in a north/northeast flow into California Thanksgiving Day and Friday. A brief but strong off shore flow will crank up at the surface as a surface high develops over northern Nevada. This will issue in air that is not necessarily cooler, but it will be drier. The bulk of this air mass will flood into the deserts of southern California and the Desert Southwest. Models continue to indicate enough of this air will move into the valley to lower dew points enough for a string of frosty mornings beginning Friday. More in the frost discussion below.
Models are still showing a very dry pattern through the weekend and into next week as a massive high remains in place over the west and off shore and all the weather will be generally east of the Rockies.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Wednesday with patchy night and morning fog. Possibly remaining partly cloudy along the foothills of Tulare and Kern Counties into Tuesday morning. mostly clear skies Wednesday through Thanksgiving Day. Generally clear skies Thursday night through Monday with chilly nights and cool afternoons.
Short Term:
| Madera 34/61/34/61 | Reedley 35/62/34/61 | Dinuba 33/60/33/60 | |
| Porterville 34/62/34/62 | Lindsay 33/61/33/62 | Delano 36/61/36/62 | |
| Bakersfield 41/63/40/61 | Taft 44/63/43/61 | Arvin 37/63/38/62 | |
| Lamont 37/63/38/62 | Pixley 34/62/34/61 | Tulare 33/60/33/61 | |
| Woodlake 34/61/34/62 | Hanford 36/61/36/62 | Orosi 32/61/33/61 | |
Winds: Winds during the night through midmorning hours will be generally at or less than 5 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions through Thanksgiving Day. Winds during the late morning through afternoon hours will be variable to 10 MPH.
Rain: Expect dry weather tonight and for at least the next 7 to possibly 10 days.
Frost: From tonight through Thanksgiving morning, most locations will range in the 30s with the coldest spots dropping into the lower 30s. It’s Friday through Sunday and possibly Monday that frost appears likely. I won’t go into all the details as they’re laid out in the summary portion of this forecast, except to say the configuration will likely drive a drier air mass onto the valley floor. This will by no means be a critically cold air mass, but nevertheless if dew points fall to model projections, upper 20s to lower 30s will be widespread beginning Friday morning and continuing through at least Sunday morning.
High temperatures will actually be above the 60 degree mark, but typically with dry air, there’s a wide spread between daytime highs and overnight lows.
Models do indicate there will be some moderation early next week, but keep in mind that with the very short days of late November, generally speaking, whatever air mass is on the valley floor remains there until a stronger air mass pushes its way in. I wish I could say there is rain on the horizon, but there is not, so dry ground will add to the overall environment.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
Af |
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
Af |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
32 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
Af |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
32 |
Venice hill
Af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
Af |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: November 24/morning