November 24, 2020
Yet another chilly morning in the valley. Clear skies allowed good radiational cooling, allowing almost all locations to dip into the 30s with a spattering of low 30s north of Kern County.
The trough of low pressure that was moving through yesterday has now moved into the interior west. A progressive high is moving in today, resulting in wall to wall sunshine. However, another fast moving trough will move through the Pacific Northwest tonight and Tuesday.
This trough will result in subfreezing temperatures beginning Friday morning. as it moves into the interior west Thanksgiving Day, it will form a trough extending from central Canada to southern California by early Friday. In the meantime, off shore a strong high building over the eastern Pacific will ridge into western Canada, creating a north/northeast flow into California. This will push a cooler, and more importantly drier, air mass into the valley. As this drier air mixes down, dew points will fall, setting the stage for several nights of subfreezing weather beginning Friday morning.
On Friday, the off shore high will move overhead and will begin to seal the drier air mass onto the valley floor. The high will remain in place through at least Sunday. Medium range models for next week are indicating a massive high along the Pacific coast will cover the western one-third of the U.S. and western Canada. This will drive cold air into the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. with very stable weather over California. For now, it appears no precipitation will be possible for at least the next week to possibly ten days.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Thanksgiving Day. Mostly clear Thursday night through Tuesday with cold nights.
Short Term:
| Madera 61/34/61/34/54 | Reedley 62/34/62/34/55 | Dinuba 61/33/61/32/54 |
| Porterville 63/34/61/33/55 | Lindsay 62/32/61/32/54 | Delano 63/36/63/35/56 |
| Bakersfield 64/41/62/40/54 | Taft 63/44/61/42/55 | Arvin 64/37/61/36/56 |
| Lamont 63/37/61/37/65 | Pixley 63/33/61/33/55 | Tulare 61/32/61/32/53 |
| Woodlake 61/32/61/32/54 | Hanford 62/35/61/35/55 | Orosi 61/31/61/32/54 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly clear 30/59 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 29/60 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 29/64 |
Monday
Mostly clear 30/64 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 31/65 |
Two Week Outlook: December 1 through December 7: this model points to a continuation of the pattern we’ve seen in recent weeks. Storms will move through the Pacific Northwest, clipping northern California from time to time with central California remaining largely dry. Anticipate somewhat above average temperatures.
December: This model shows above average temperatures during the month of December. Southern California should experience below average precipitation. There is some hope for northern and central California, however, as this model spits out equal chances of above or below average rainfall. We’re hoping for the above average side of things.
December, January, February: This model definitely reflects a La Nina pattern, which is when ocean temperatures are below average through the equatorial waters off of Peru, extending into the mid Pacific. Typically, this results in above average temperatures for much of the southern half of the U.S., including California, with unfortunately below average precipitation for California including the valley.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be variable to no more than 10 MPH while winds during the night through mid morning hours will be generally at or less than 5 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions through Wednesday night. Winds Thanksgiving Day will be out of the north/northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH along the far west side. Winds Thursday night and Friday will be generally light, but possibly out of the northeast at 10 to 20 MPH, mainly along the I 5 corridor.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to possibly 10 days.
Frost Discussion: A few more locations last night made it into the lower 30s. the coldest as of 6:00am was Reedley. Fowler, Sanger, and Famoso all hit 32. All other locations were above freezing. With the character of the air mass remaining pretty much unchanged, I would expect about the same conditions tonight and again Thanksgiving morning.
However, changes will be afoot in the weather pattern Thanksgiving Day. They will allow the flow aloft to become north/northeast along the back side of a trough of low pressure over the interior west. A surface high will also generate a brief off shore flow. Locally gusty north to northeast winds will flow down the valley Thanksgiving Day, issuing in a colder and drier air mass. For now, it appears dew points will fall enough for widespread upper 20s and lower 30s beginning Friday morning with the coldest low spots dropping down to 26 to 27 or so. Outlier locations could dip down to 25. For now, it appears most flat terrain areas will range between 28 and 32 degrees with possibly slightly colder readings Saturday and Sunday mornings as calm winds and clear skies prevail. With the very low sun angle and only 9:44 minutes of daylight, the air mass will be very slow to modify, so expect a string of subfreezing nights through at least Monday.
Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for November 24, 2020:
Today’s air quality is listed as moderate for the entire valley with the exception of the Kern Air Basin where the air is listed as unsafe for sensitive groups.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern, Mid upper 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 97%/36% Porterville, 97%/42%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .54, Parlier .38, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .54, Orange Cove .36, Porterville .38, Delano .45. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 56, Blackwell 62, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 60, Porterville 56, Delano 51
Record Temperatures: 78/29. Average Temperatures: 61/38
Heating Degree Days This Season: 296, -81
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 53,9 +.0.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .28, -1.16, Month to Date: .28, -.53
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .39, +or- -.38. Month to date .39, -.08
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 125, Parlier, 154, Arvin, 105, Shafter, 107, Stratford, 143, Delano, 141, Lindcove, 147, Porterville, 191
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:48 am Sunset: 4:44 pm Hours of Daylight: 9:58
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 65 / 39 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1500 / 65 / 36 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 63 / 46 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 65 / 39 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 66 / 37 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1500 / 63 / 43 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 64 / 38 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1551 / 63 / 42 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 64 / 39 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 64 / 42 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.09 4 0.00 0 2.09 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.10 6 0.00 0 1.68 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.08 61 0.00 0 1.76 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.16 9 0.00 0 1.81 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.28 19 0.00 0 1.44 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.13 9 0.00 0 1.37 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.39 51 0.37 48 0.77 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 0.06 9 0.69 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.37 23 T 0 1.59 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.28 20 0.02 1 1.39 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.25 16 0.02 1 1.59 13.95
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
32 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice hill
Af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
Af |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: November 24/pm