A dry cold front is currently moving through northern California followed by an upper trough of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest. The front will move quickly through central California this afternoon. As it does, winds will pick up out of the northwest, especially along the west side of the valley where local gusts to 30 MPH are possible. The northwest push of air behind the front will begin to develop upslope clouds against the southern Sierra Nevada and the valley facing slopes of the Kern County mountains. The clouds may last well into Thanksgiving morning.
As the trough moves into the interior west Thanksgiving Day, it will elongate from central California to central and southern California. Meanwhile, a massive upper high will build northeastward into western Canada, creating a strong northeasterly flow aloft. By Friday morning, a strong surface high will be centered over northern Nevada and Utah, creating a strong off shore surface flow. This will result in strong Santa Ana winds in southern California and will mix down drier air to the valley floor.
Models continue to be consistent in showing freeze conditions for the valley beginning Friday morning. more on that in the frost discussion below.
By Friday afternoon, the off shore high will be moving overhead, sealing in the cooler and, more importantly, drier air mass onto the valley floor. The high will dominate our pattern through Monday.
Models diverge once we get to Tuesday of next week and beyond. Some show the possibility of a cut off low developing over northern California, slowly moving southward. However, other models do not pick up on this.
At any rate, the chance of rain for the next seven to ten days remains slim to none.
Forecast: Clear skies through early afternoon. Becoming partly to mostly cloudy in Kern County and eastern Tulare County from late this afternoon through Thanksgiving morning. mostly clear elsewhere. Mostly clear Thanksgiving afternoon through Sunday with cold nights. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 61/35/57/29/60 | Reedley 62/36/57/30/59 | Dinuba 61/34/56/28/59 |
| Porterville 62/35/57/29/61 | Lindsay 62/34/58/28/60 | Delano 63/36/57/30/60 |
| Bakersfield 63/40/57/35/61 | Taft 62/42/57/38/62 | Arvin 63/39/57/31/62 |
| Lamont 63/39/57/32/62 | Pixley 61/36/58/29/60 | Tulare 61/33/56/28/59 |
| Woodlake 61/34/57/29/60 | Hanford 62/37/57/30/61 | Orosi 61/33/57/28/60 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 28/62 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 29/62 |
Monday
Mostly clear 31/64 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 34/58 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 35/60 |
Two Week Outlook: December 1 through December 7: this model points to a continuation of the pattern we’ve seen in recent weeks. Storms will move through the Pacific Northwest, clipping northern California from time to time with central California remaining largely dry. Anticipate somewhat above average temperatures.
December: This model shows above average temperatures during the month of December. Southern California should experience below average precipitation. There is some hope for northern and central California, however, as this model spits out equal chances of above or below average rainfall. We’re hoping for the above average side of things.
December, January, February: This model definitely reflects a La Nina pattern, which is when ocean temperatures are below average through the equatorial waters off of Peru, extending into the mid Pacific. Typically, this results in above average temperatures for much of the southern half of the U.S., including California, with unfortunately below average precipitation for California including the valley.
Winds Discussion: Winds this morning will be light then will pick up this afternoon out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH north of Kern County. Local gusts to 30 MPH are possible along the west side. In Kern County, winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts through tonight. winds Thursday will be variable to 12 MPH except along the far west side where winds will be out of the northeast at 10 to 20 with stronger gusts. Winds later Thursday night through Saturday will be generally at or less than 10 MPH during the late morning and afternoon hours and generally at or less than 5 MPH during the night and early morning hours.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to possibly 10 days.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight, but slightly above in the coldest locations. Tonight will be the last night of easy going weather for the valley for a while. A combination of a strong northeast flow developing Thanksgiving Day and a brief but strong off shore flow will move a cooler air mass into central California. However, of more importance, the air mass is much drier. Upslope clouds will no doubt develop later this afternoon through Thanksgiving morning, but they will quickly mix out by Thursday evening due to that off shore flow and drier air moving in aloft. For now, I’m going to guesstimate dew points will generally fall into the mid 20s to the lower 30s. Beginning Friday morning, widespread upper 20s and lower 30s can be anticipated with the coldest unprotected frost pockets down to 26 to 27. It’s possible there may be an outlier river bottom somewhere where readings could drop to 25.
Keep in mind also, on Friday morning, winds will still be largely chaotic, meaning it will be a more difficult forecast. However, Saturday through Monday will not have winds as a factor and, under mostly clear skies, strong radiational cooling will occur. Saturday and Sunday mornings should see lows in in the typical flat terrain down to 27 to 31 with unprotected river bottom and similar locations down to 25 to 26 or so.
Models vary on the pattern for next week. There is some indication another dry cold front will move through Monday night and Tuesday, however, some models are indicating a possible cut off low will develop. Currently, this is an evolving pattern.
Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for November 25, 2020:
Today’s air quality is listed as moderate for the entire growing region up to Merced County. North of Merced County, the air quality is posted as good.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern, Low to mid 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 92%/43% Porterville, 97%/40%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .51, Parlier .40, Blackwell Corners .48, Arvin .46, Orange Cove .35, Porterville .36, Delano .42. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 55, Blackwell 61, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 59, Porterville 56, Delano 51
Record Temperatures: 76/27. Average Temperatures: 61/37
Heating Degree Days This Season: 310, -83
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 53,7 +.0.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .28, -1.19, Month to Date: .28, -.56
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .39, +or- -.41. Month to date .39, -.11
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 135, Parlier, 166, Arvin, 115, Shafter, 116, Stratford, 152, Delano, 152, Lindcove, 159, Porterville, 205
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:49 am Sunset: 4:44 pm Hours of Daylight: 9:56
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 64 / 35 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 64 / 35 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 64 / 42 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 66 / 35 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 66 / 33 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1500 / M / M / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 65 / 37 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1546 / 66 / 39 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 67 / 38 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 45 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.09 4 0.00 0 2.15 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.10 6 0.00 0 1.73 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.08 60 0.00 0 1.80 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.16 9 0.00 0 1.84 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.28 19 0.00 0 1.47 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.13 9 0.00 0 1.39 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.39 49 0.37 46 0.80 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 0.06 8 0.71 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.37 23 T 0 1.64 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.28 20 0.02 1 1.43 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.25 15 0.02 1 1.64 13.95
3.95
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
Af |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
Af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
Af |
Exeter
Af |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
Af |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
Af |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
Af |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
32 |
| Root Creek
Af |
Venice hill
Af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
Af |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: November 25/pm