Thanksgiving 2020
A colder, drier air mass has now swept into the valley. A few locations this morning have dipped into the upper 20s with most locations in the low to mid 30s. This is just a hint of things to come. The freezing level above Oakland 24 hours ago was 11,100 feet. The latest balloon sounding now pegs the freezing level at 7,200 feet.
Currently, a trough of low pressure extends from western Canada southwestward to central California. At the surface, strong high pressure is now building over the interior west with its center this morning over southern Idaho. Pressure is lower off shore and is creating a robust off shore flow, cranking up the Santa Ana’s in southern California.
Now that the colder, drier air mass is settling onto the valley floor, the stage is set for strong radiational cooling leading to a string of subfreezing nights. Upslope clouds which developed along the Sierra Nevada foothills and against the valley facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains are dissipating and should be largely gone by midday. In the meantime, upper level high pressure off shore is ridging into western Canada and this will keep that strong off shore flow aloft going for another 24 hours. By Friday evening, upper level high pressure will be building into California while a new low develops over the Four Corners region. The high will dominate our pattern through Monday with clear skies through early next week.
Models after midweek of next week are still not in focus. Some show a low center developing either over northern California or just off shore, slowing drifting southward. For now, there’s not enough evidence to put a chance of rain in the forecast but we’ll see what trends develop in the coming days.
Forecast: Clear skies through Monday night with cool days and cold nights. Mostly clear Tuesday through Wednesday night. Partly cloudy Thursday.
Short Term:
Madera 58/28/60/27/62 | Reedley 58/28/61/28/62 | Dinuba 57/26/59/26/61 |
Porterville 57/28/61/27/62 | Lindsay 58/26/61/26/61 | Delano 57/28/61/28/62 |
Bakersfield 56/34/62/34/63 | Taft 57/35/62/37/63 | Arvin 56/29/62/28/63 |
Lamont 57/29/62/28/63 | Pixley 58/27/61/27/62 | Tulare 57/26/61/26/60 |
Woodlake 57/27/61/27/61 | Hanford 58/28/68/28/62 | Orosi 57/26/61/26/62 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Sunday
Mostly clear 28/61 |
Monday
Mostly clear 31/60 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 32/63 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 31/63 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 36/62 |
Two Week Outlook: December 1 through December 7: this model points to a continuation of the pattern we’ve seen in recent weeks. Storms will move through the Pacific Northwest, clipping northern California from time to time with central California remaining largely dry. Anticipate somewhat above average temperatures.
December: This model shows above average temperatures during the month of December. Southern California should experience below average precipitation. There is some hope for northern and central California, however, as this model spits out equal chances of above or below average rainfall. We’re hoping for the above average side of things.
December, January, February: This model definitely reflects a La Nina pattern, which is when ocean temperatures are below average through the equatorial waters off of Peru, extending into the mid Pacific. Typically, this results in above average temperatures for much of the southern half of the U.S., including California, with unfortunately below average precipitation for California including the valley.
Winds Discussion: Winds today will be generally at or less than 12 MPH. The exception will be along the far west side where winds will be out of the north to northeast at 10 to 20 MPH, diminishing this evening. Winds tonight through Sunday will be generally at or less than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons and less than 6 MPH during the night and early morning hours with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to possibly 10 days.
Frost Discussion: There were a few surprises last night. most locations were in the low to mid 30s, as expected. However, a few locations saw winds die off and they dipped into the upper 20s. Reedley was the coldest I could find at 27 degrees as of 6:00am while Famoso and Sanger each reported 29, Ivanhoe 30, and Lindsay 31.
A colder, drier air mass will continue to infiltrate the valley today. As explained in the summary above, we now have a rather robust off shore flow underway at the surface. In the meantime, the winds aloft are out of the northeast. This air mass is not critically cold, but it is dry and it’s overspreading an already dry valley floor due to lack of precipitation. With near calm winds tonight and clear skies, strong radiational cooling will commence.
Coldest unprotected river bottom and similar locations will drop to 24 to 26 degrees with most flat land locations generally ranging from 27 to 31 and hillsides in the low to mid 30s.
Coldest unprotected regions will drop to 32 degrees around 10:00 to 11:00pm and 28 degrees after 2:00am. Temperatures won’t rise to above freezing u ntil approximately 8:30 to 9:00am Friday.
The inversion tonight will be weak, but will improve towards sunrise with temperatures at 34 feet generally from 3 to 6 degrees warmer at most locations.
Expect similar temperatures Saturday and Sunday mornings with only slight moderation by Monday.
Most locations Tuesday through Wednesday will moderate into the low to mid 30s with possibly a few locations in the upper 20s. after Wednesday, the pattern is still unclear. We may see a low pressure system develop over northern California which would certainly improve the dew point situation and we may get some cloud cover.
Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for November 26, 2020:
Today’s air quality is listed as moderate for the entire growing region up to Stanislaus County. North of that line, the air quality is posted as good.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s, Kern, Mid to upper 30s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 89%/40% Porterville, 98%/37%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .56, Parlier .42, Blackwell Corners .50, Arvin .47, Orange Cove .39, Porterville .38, Delano .44. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 55, Blackwell 60, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 59, Porterville 55, Delano 50
Record Temperatures: 81/30. Average Temperatures: 60/37
Heating Degree Days This Season: 325, -85
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 53,6 +.0.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .28, -1.23, Month to Date: .28, -.60
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .39, +or- -.43. Month to date .39, -.13
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 145, Parlier, 176, Arvin, 123, Shafter, 126, Stratford, 163, Delano, 162, Lindcove, 171, Porterville, 218
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:50 am Sunset: 4:44 pm Hours of Daylight: 9:55
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 64 / 35 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 64 / 33 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 64 / 40 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 65 / 34 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 64 / 32 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 65 / 42 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 65 / 35 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1546 / 61 / 37 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 65 / 37 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 62 / 41 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.09 4 0.00 0 2.21 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.10 6 0.00 0 1.78 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.08 59 0.00 0 1.83 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.16 9 0.00 0 1.88 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.28 19 0.00 0 1.51 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.13 9 0.00 0 1.41 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.39 48 0.37 45 0.82 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 0.06 8 0.73 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.37 22 T 0 1.70 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.28 19 0.02 1 1.46 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.25 15 0.02 1 1.69 13.95
Lows Tonight:
Terra Bella
27 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
26 |
Woodlake
27 |
Strathmore
28 |
McFarland
27 |
Ducor
29 |
Tea Pot Dome
28 |
Lindsay
27 |
Exeter
27 |
Famoso
27 |
Madera
28 |
Belridge
27 |
Delano
29 |
North Bakersfield
29 |
Orosi
27 |
Orange Cove
27 |
Lindcove
27 |
Lindcove Hillside
31 |
Sanger River Bottom
24 |
Root Creek
25 |
Venice Hill
28 |
Rosedale
29 |
Jasmine
28 |
Arvin
29 |
Lamont
29 |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
29 |
Edison
30 |
Maricopa
27 |
Holland Creek
29 |
Tivy Valley
27 |
Kite Road South
30 |
Kite Road North
27 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: November 26/pm