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Forecast

Thanksgiving 2020 morning report

Thanksgiving 2020

A colder, drier air mass has now swept into the valley.  A few locations this morning have dipped into the upper 20s with most locations in the low to mid 30s.  This is just a hint of things to come.  The freezing level above Oakland 24 hours ago was 11,100 feet.  The latest balloon sounding now pegs the freezing level at 7,200 feet.

 

Currently, a trough of low pressure extends from western Canada southwestward to central California.  At the surface, strong high pressure is now building over the interior west with its center this morning over southern Idaho.  Pressure is lower off shore and is creating a robust off shore flow, cranking up the Santa Ana’s in southern California.

 

Now that the colder, drier air mass is settling onto the valley floor, the stage is set for strong radiational cooling leading to a string of subfreezing nights.  Upslope clouds which developed along the Sierra Nevada foothills and against the valley facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains are dissipating and should be largely gone by midday.  In the meantime, upper level high pressure off shore is ridging into western Canada and this will keep that strong off shore flow aloft going for another 24 hours.  By Friday evening, upper level high pressure will be building into California while a new low develops over the Four Corners region.  The high will dominate our pattern through Monday with clear skies through early next week.

 

Models after midweek of next week are still not in focus.  Some show a low center developing either over northern California or just off shore, slowing drifting southward.  For now, there’s not enough evidence to put a chance of rain in the forecast but we’ll see what trends develop in the coming days.

 

Forecast:  Clear skies through Monday night with cool days and cold nights.  Mostly clear Tuesday through Wednesday night.  Partly cloudy Thursday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 58/28/60/27/62 Reedley 58/28/61/28/62 Dinuba 57/26/59/26/61
Porterville 57/28/61/27/62 Lindsay 58/26/61/26/61 Delano 57/28/61/28/62
Bakersfield 56/34/62/34/63 Taft 57/35/62/37/63 Arvin 56/29/62/28/63
Lamont 57/29/62/28/63 Pixley 58/27/61/27/62 Tulare 57/26/61/26/60
Woodlake 57/27/61/27/61 Hanford 58/28/68/28/62 Orosi 57/26/61/26/62

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Sunday

Mostly clear

28/61

Monday

Mostly clear

31/60

Tuesday

Mostly clear

32/63

Wednesday

Mostly clear

31/63

Thursday

Partly cloudy

36/62

 

Two Week Outlook:  December 1 through December 7:  this model points to a continuation of the pattern we’ve seen in recent weeks.  Storms will move through the Pacific Northwest, clipping northern California from time to time with central California remaining largely dry.  Anticipate somewhat above average temperatures.

 

December: This model shows above average temperatures during the month of December.  Southern California should experience below average precipitation.  There is some hope for northern and central California, however, as this model spits out equal chances of above or below average rainfall.  We’re hoping for the above average side of things. 

 

December, January, February: This model definitely reflects a La Nina pattern, which is when ocean temperatures are below average through the equatorial waters off of Peru, extending into the mid Pacific.  Typically, this results in above average temperatures for much of the southern half of the U.S., including California, with unfortunately below average precipitation for California including the valley. 

 

Winds Discussion:  Winds today will be generally at or less than 12 MPH.  The exception will be along the far west side where winds will be out of the north to northeast at 10 to 20 MPH, diminishing this evening.  Winds tonight through Sunday will be generally at or less than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons and less than 6 MPH during the night and early morning hours with extended periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to possibly 10 days.

 

Frost Discussion:  There were a few surprises last night.  most locations were in the low to mid 30s, as expected.  However, a few locations saw winds die off and they dipped into the upper 20s.  Reedley was the coldest I could find at 27 degrees as of 6:00am while Famoso and Sanger each reported 29, Ivanhoe 30, and Lindsay 31.

 

A colder, drier air mass will continue to infiltrate the valley today.  As explained in the summary above, we now have a rather robust off shore flow underway at the surface.  In the meantime, the winds aloft are out of the northeast. This air mass is not critically cold, but it is dry and it’s overspreading an already dry valley floor due to lack of precipitation.  With near calm winds tonight and clear skies, strong radiational cooling will commence.

 

Coldest unprotected river bottom and similar locations will drop to 24 to 26 degrees with most flat land locations generally ranging from 27 to 31 and hillsides in the low to mid 30s.

 

Coldest unprotected regions will drop to 32 degrees around 10:00 to 11:00pm and 28 degrees after 2:00am.  Temperatures won’t rise to above freezing u ntil approximately 8:30 to 9:00am Friday.

 

The inversion tonight will be weak, but will improve towards sunrise with temperatures at 34 feet generally from 3 to 6 degrees warmer at most locations.

 

 

Expect similar temperatures Saturday and Sunday mornings with only slight moderation by Monday.

 

Most locations Tuesday through Wednesday will moderate into the low to mid 30s with possibly a few locations in the upper 20s.  after Wednesday, the pattern is still unclear.  We may see a low pressure system develop over northern California which would certainly improve the dew point situation and we may get some cloud cover.

 

Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for November 26, 2020:

 

Today’s air quality is listed as moderate for the entire growing region up to Stanislaus County.  North of that line, the air quality is posted as good. 

 

The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com.  The option to use a specific address is available.

 

For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires

 

In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Upper 30s to the lower 40s,  Kern, Mid to upper 30s.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 89%/40% Porterville, 98%/37%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%.  Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .56, Parlier .42, Blackwell Corners .50, Arvin .47, Orange Cove .39, Porterville .38, Delano .44. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 55, Blackwell 60, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 59, Porterville 55, Delano 50

Record Temperatures: 81/30. Average Temperatures: 60/37

Heating Degree Days This Season: 325, -85

 

Courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for this month So Far: 53,6  +.0.7

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  .28,  -1.23,  Month to Date: .28,  -.60

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,  .39, +or-  -.43.   Month to date .39,  -.13

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 145, Parlier, 176,  Arvin, 123, Shafter, 126, Stratford, 163, Delano, 162, Lindcove, 171, Porterville, 218

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:50 am   Sunset: 4:44 pm   Hours of Daylight:  9:55

 

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1600 /  64 /  35 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  64 /  33 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  64 /  40 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  65 /  34 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  64 /  32 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DHM    /  65 /  42 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  65 /  35 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1546 /  61 /  37 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  65 /  37 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  62 /  41 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    0.09     4    0.00     0     2.21    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    0.10     6    0.00     0     1.78    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    1.08    59    0.00     0     1.83    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.16     9    0.00     0     1.88    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.28    19    0.00     0     1.51    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.13     9    0.00     0     1.41    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.39    48    0.37    45     0.82     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00       T     0    0.06     8     0.73     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.37    22       T     0     1.70    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.28    19    0.02     1     1.46    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.25    15    0.02     1     1.69    13.95

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

27

Porterville

28

Ivanhoe

26

Woodlake

27

Strathmore

28

McFarland

27

Ducor

29

Tea Pot Dome

28

Lindsay

27

Exeter

27

Famoso

27

Madera

28

Belridge

27

Delano

29

North Bakersfield

29

Orosi

27

Orange Cove

27

Lindcove

27

Lindcove Hillside

31

Sanger River Bottom

24

Root Creek

25

Venice Hill

28

Rosedale

29

Jasmine

28

Arvin

29

Lamont

29

Plainview

28

Mettler

29

Edison

30

Maricopa

27

Holland Creek

29

Tivy Valley

27

Kite Road South

30

Kite Road North

27

AF=Above Freezing

 

Next report: November 26/pm