November 27, 2020
Last night was the coldest night of the year so far, as expected, with widespread upper 20s to lower 30s. a relatively cold, but more importantly dry, air mass is now in place. Upper level high pressure is beginning to build in from the west which will seal in this air mass as a warm air inversion develops. In fact, the freezing level above Vandenburg and Oakland a short time ago jumped up to 11,000 feet. Yesterday at this time, it was 7,400 feet.
In the big picture, high pressure located over the eastern Pacific is currently ridging into the Pacific Northwest and southern British Columbia while a low center is developing over Arizona. The high will shift eastward as the weekend wears on with a weak westerly flow replacing the northeast flow of the past 24 hours.
At the surface, high pressure is located over the Great Basin which will keep the off shore flow going. On Monday, a trough of low pressure will dive into the Pacific Northwest then into the northern Rockies on Tuesday. Behind this system, a massive upper high will build as far north as the Yukon Territory of Canada. There are some indications a strong off shore flow will develop about Wednesday of next week as a low pressure system in the Midwest actually retrogrades into the Desert Southwest. Models for late next week through next weekend are still rather muddy, but there’s no pattern out there that would bring rain back to central California.
Forecast: Clear skies through Monday night with cold nights continuing. Mostly clear Tuesday through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 61/28/62/28/62 | Reedley 62/27/62/28/62 | Dinuba 61/27/62/28/62 |
| Porterville 63/28/63/28/63 | Lindsay 61/28/62/27/63 | Delano 63/29/63/29/63 |
| Bakersfield 63/35/62/36/63 | Taft 64/38/64/38/63 | Arvin 64/29/64/30/63 |
| Lamont 63/30/63/30/64 | Pixley 63/28/63/29/62 | Tulare 61/27/61/27/62 |
| Woodlake 61/28/62/28/61 | Hanford 63/29/63/30/62 | Orosi 62/27/62/27/61 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly clear 29/61 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 31/61 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 32/64 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 33/64 |
Friday
Mostly clear 33/61 |
Two Week Outlook: December 4 through December 10: this model points to a continuation of the pattern we’ve seen in recent weeks. Storms will move through the Pacific Northwest, clipping northern California from time to time with central California remaining largely dry. Anticipate somewhat above average temperatures.
December: This model shows above average temperatures during the month of December. Southern California should experience below average precipitation. There is some hope for northern and central California, however, as this model spits out equal chances of above or below average rainfall. We’re hoping for the above average side of things.
December, January, February: This model definitely reflects a La Nina pattern, which is when ocean temperatures are below average through the equatorial waters off of Peru, extending into the mid Pacific. Typically, this results in above average temperatures for much of the southern half of the U.S., including California, with unfortunately below average precipitation for California including the valley.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be variable to no more than 10 MPH. Winds during the night and early morning hours will generally be at or less than 5 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to possibly 10 days.
Frost Discussion: Widespread upper 20s and lower 30s occurred last night. A few of the coldest spots were Maricopa was 25, Famoso and Reedley at 26, Orange Cove and Exeter at 28 degrees each. This was as of 6:00am.
Now that the air mass is in place and a warm air inversion is developing above the valley floor, our cold weather fate is sealed for the next few days. Expect widespread upper 20s to lower 30s through Monday morning.
Coldest locations tonight in unprotected low spots will drop down to 24 to 26 degrees with most flatland locations chilling to 27 to 31 with hillsides in the low to mid 30s.
Coldest unprotected low spots will drop to 32 around 10:00pm and 28 at around 2:00 am or thereafter. Temperatures will not rise to above freezing until after about 8:30 or 9:00am Saturday morning.
The inversion tonight should be fairly decent with temperatures at 34 feet from 4 to 7 degrees warmer at most locations. Again, expect similar conditions Sunday and Monday mornings with possibly slight moderation Tuesday morning.
Some models are showing the possibility of a strong off shore flow developing about the middle of next week with a cold air mass diving into the Rockies and Midwestern U.S. For now, it appears this air mass will remain east of California, however that pending off shore flow may reinforce the dry air mass on the valley floor, thus continuing below freezing temperatures.
Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for November 26, 2020:
Today’s air quality is listed as moderate for the entire growing region.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s, Kern, Mid to upper 20s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 88%/38% Porterville, 91%/35%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .55, Parlier .42, Blackwell Corners .50, Arvin .50, Orange Cove .41, Porterville .42, Delano .44. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Blackwell 60, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 58, Porterville 55, Delano 49
Record Temperatures: 78/27. Average Temperatures: 60/37
Heating Degree Days This Season: 342, -85
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 53,3 +.0.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .28, -1.27, Month to Date: .28, -.64
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .39, +or- -.45. Month to date .39, -.15
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 158, Parlier, 190, Arvin, 133, Shafter, 135, Stratford, 177, Delano, 176, Lindcove, 184, Porterville, 232
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:51 am Sunset: 4:43 pm Hours of Daylight: 9:54
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 61 / 34 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 60 / 30 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 60 / 36 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 62 / 33 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 60 / 32 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 60 / 39 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 60 / 30 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1547 / 59 / 39 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 62 / 35 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.09 4 0.34 15 2.27 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.10 5 0.31 17 1.83 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.08 58 T 0 1.86 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.16 8 0.09 5 1.91 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.28 18 0.03 2 1.55 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.13 9 T 0 1.42 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.39 46 0.37 44 0.84 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 0.06 8 0.75 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.37 21 0.45 26 1.75 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.28 19 0.20 13 1.50 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.25 14 0.05 3 1.73 13.95
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
28 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
27 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
28 |
McFarland
27 |
Ducor
29 |
Tea Pot Dome
28 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
27 |
Madera
28 |
| Belridge
27 |
Delano
29 |
North Bakersfield
29 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
28 |
Lindcove
27 |
Lindcove Hillside
31 |
Sanger River Bottom
24 |
| Root Creek
25 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
28 |
Jasmine
29 |
| Arvin
30 |
Lamont
30 |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
32 |
| Edison
31 |
Maricopa
26 |
Holland Creek
31 |
Tivy Valley
28 |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
28 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: November 27/pm