November 28, 2020
Widespread upper 20s were prevalent throughout the valley north of Kern County this morning with upper 20s and lower 30s in Kern County. The valley is now locked into a dry air mass on the valley floor which allows temperatures to warm pretty nicely during the day but with strong, radiational cooling during the overnight hours. Very little change can be expected through at least Tuesday morning.
Upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific now extends inland over California with a weak westerly flow aloft. The next low pressure system will move out of the Gulf of Alaska and through the Pacific Northwest Monday, moving quickly into the northern Rockies Tuesday. This system will be followed by a massive high pressure system over the eastern Pacific which will reach all the way northward into the southern Yukon Territory of Canada.
Wednesday and Thursday is when the pattern gets somewhat interesting as some models are projecting a low pressure system to center somewhere near Kansas, stretching into the eastern Great Basin and possibly into the Desert Southwest Thursday. This creates and Omega looking pattern, creating a northeast flow into California. Surface high pressure also takes shape over the Great Basin, adding an off shore flow to the pattern. This would, theoretically, inject more cold, dry air into the valley, extending the string of subfreezing nights.
Medium range models give no indication of a pattern that would produce precipitation through the first week in December. In fact, the two week model which extends out through the 11th, indicates an 80% chance of below average precipitation.
Forecast: Clear skies through Tuesday with cold nights continuing. Mostly clear Tuesday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 63/28/63/28/62 | Reedley 64/28/64/28/63 | Dinuba 62/27/62/27/61 |
| Porterville 65/28/65/28/62 | Lindsay 64/27/62/27/62 | Delano 63/28/63/28/62 |
| Bakersfield 66/36/63/37/63 | Taft 65/45/65/46/63 | Arvin 66/31/66/31/63 |
| Lamont 65/30/62/30/62 | Pixley 65/28/65/28/62 | Tulare 63/27/63/27/61 |
| Woodlake 63/27/63/28/62 | Hanford 65/29/62/29/61 | Orosi 63/27/63/27/62 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 29/63 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 30/63 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 29/64 |
Friday
Mostly clear 29/63 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 28/62 |
Two Week Outlook: December 4 through December 10: this model points to a continuation of the pattern we’ve seen in recent weeks. Storms will move through the Pacific Northwest, clipping northern California from time to time with central California remaining largely dry. Anticipate somewhat above average temperatures.
December: This model shows above average temperatures during the month of December. Southern California should experience below average precipitation. There is some hope for northern and central California, however, as this model spits out equal chances of above or below average rainfall. We’re hoping for the above average side of things.
December, January, February: This model definitely reflects a La Nina pattern, which is when ocean temperatures are below average through the equatorial waters off of Peru, extending into the mid Pacific. Typically, this results in above average temperatures for much of the southern half of the U.S., including California, with unfortunately below average precipitation for California including the valley.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be variable to no more than 10 MPH. Winds during the night and early morning hours will generally be at or less than 5 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to possibly 10 days.
Frost Discussion: Upper 20s were widespread this morning. the coldest I could find at 6:00am were 25 at Famoso and Maricopa, 26 at Reedley, Orange Cove and Fowler. The banana belt was Arvin at 31 and Edison at 36 where weak downslope winds were occurring.
From this point on, I don’t anticipate much day to day change. The dry air mass is now entrenched under a warm air inversion. When the air mass is dry, it has the ability to warm more efficiently during the day and cool more efficiently during the overnight hours.
Coldest low lying regions tonight will again drop down to 24 to 26 degrees with most flatland locations between 27 and 30. Hillsides will be above freezing.
The inversion will be decent tonight with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 4 to 8 degrees warmer.
Coldest locations tonight will drop to 32 degrees at around 10:00pm or thereafter and 28 degrees after 2:00am. Temperatures will rise to above freezing somewhere around 8:30 to 9:00am. Again, I anticipate little change over the next few nights.
We could see another northeast flow aloft develop Wednesday and Thursday of next week along with a developing surface off shore flow. For now, it appears this would not inject colder air into the valley but could reinforce the low dew points already in place. We’ll study this in the coming days.
Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for November 26, 2020:
Today’s air quality is listed as unsafe for sensitive groups in Fresno County. The air quality in the remainder of the growing area is moderate.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s, Kern, Mid to upper 20s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 88%/36% Porterville, 96%/30%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .56, Parlier .44, Blackwell Corners .53, Arvin .53, Orange Cove .45, Porterville .46, Delano .47. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 53, Blackwell 59, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 58, Porterville 54, Delano 49
Record Temperatures: 76/28. Average Temperatures: 60/37
Heating Degree Days This Season: 359, -85
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 53.1 +.0.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .28, -1.31, Month to Date: .28, -.68
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .39, +or- -.48. Month to date .39, -.18
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 172, Parlier, 205, Arvin, 146, Shafter, 149, Stratford, 190, Delano, 191, Lindcove, 199, Porterville, 247
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:52 am Sunset: 4:43 pm Hours of Daylight: 9:53
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 62 / 30 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 64 / 30 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 64 / 37 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 65 / 30 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 65 / 27 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 66 / 35 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 63 / 30 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1509 / 64 / 35 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 64 / 31 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.09 4 0.43 18 2.33 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.10 5 0.42 22 1.88 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.08 57 0.18 10 1.89 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.16 8 0.22 11 1.93 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.28 18 0.44 28 1.59 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.13 9 0.40 28 1.44 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.39 45 0.91 105 0.87 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 0.81 107 0.76 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.37 20 0.82 45 1.81 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.28 18 0.80 52 1.54 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.25 14 0.91 51 1.78 13.95
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
28 |
Porterville 27 | Ivanhoe
26 |
Woodlake
28 |
| Strathmore
28 |
McFarland
27 |
Ducor
28 |
Tea Pot Dome
27 |
| Lindsay
27 |
Exeter
27 |
Famoso
26 |
Madera
28 |
| Belridge
26 |
Delano
28 |
North Bakersfield
28 |
Orosi
27 |
| Orange Cove
26 |
Lindcove
27 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
24 |
| Root Creek
25 |
Venice Hill
28 |
Rosedale
28 |
Jasmine
28 |
| Arvin
30 |
Lamont
29 |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
32 |
| Edison
30 |
Maricopa
26 |
Holland Creek
30 |
Tivy Valley
27 |
| Kite Road South
30 |
Kite Road North
27 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: November 28/pm