December 1, 2020
Summary: A massive high pressure system at the upper levels of the atmosphere covers the eastern Pacific and the western1/4 of the U.S. Surface high pressure is beginning to take shape over the Great Basin. Already this afternoon there’s evidence of an off shore flow developing, though so far it’s weak. The latest sounding above Monterey indicated an east/northeast flow between1500 and 3000 feet and a couple of locations in the Kern County mountains are reporting easterly winds in the 10 to 20 MPH range.
A low pressure system currently over the Rocky Mountain region will center in the Midwestern U.S. Wednesday with the western side of the low stretching into the Desert Southwest. With strengthening surface high pressure over Idaho and Nevada, a rather robust off shore flow will commence, especially Wednesday night and Thursday. There does still appear to be a risk of Santa Ana type winds making it down to the valley floor Wednesday night and Thursday. If these winds make it to the valley floor, it’s possible some gusty southeast winds could make it as far north as Bakersfield.
The off shore flow will begin to weaken Thursday evening, ending any further wind challenges in Kern County for the time being. Models show a benign little low pressure system developing over northern California Friday then drifting southward before simply dissipating Sunday. Models are still pointing at a closed low developing off the Baja coastline Monday and Tuesday but too far to the south to have much impact here other than to keep the off shore flow in place.
Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear through Saturday. Mostly clear Saturday night through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 30/63/30/64 | Reedley 30/65/31/66 | Dinuba 28/62/30/65 | |
| Porterville 30/65/30/66 | Lindsay 29/64/30/66 | Delano 30/65/31/67 | |
| Bakersfield 39/67/47/71 | Taft 47/66/47/70 | Arvin 45/67/45/70 | |
| Lamont 34/65/42/68 | Pixley 29/65/30/66 | Tulare 28/63/30/65 | |
| Woodlake 29/64/30/65 | Hanford 31/64/32/65 | Orosi 28/63/29/64 | |
Winds: North of Kern County, winds during the late mornings and afternoons will be no more than 10 MPH and variable in nature. During the night and early morning hours, winds will be at or less than 5 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions. In Kern County, winds will be light and variable through Wednesday. there is a chance of gusty Santa Ana winds blowing downslope off the mountains and into the extreme south valley with possible gusts near 40 MPH Wednesday night and Thursday. There’s even a smaller chance of gusts to 20 MPH as far north as Bakersfield. these winds will diminish Thursday night with light winds returning Friday.
Rain: Expect dry weather tonight and for at least the next 7 to possibly 10 days.
Frost: Marginal modification began last night and with a little bit of luck, will continue tonight with perhaps most locations being about 1 to 2 degrees milder. Even so, coldest river bottom and similar locations will drop into the 26 to 27 degree range with most flatland locations between 28 and 32. Portions of Kern County will remain above freezing as will hillsides. Expect temperatures at 34 feet tonight to generally be 4 to 8 degrees warmer at most locations. Similar conditions can be expected Thursday morning with the possible exception of Kern County. Kern County we may see the development of gusty southeast winds Wednesday night and Thursday. This, in part, should be the catalyst to mix down another layer of very dry air onto the valley floor. Where dew points set up will determine lows for unprotected cold spots where temperatures could drop to 24 to 26. Most flat terrain will range between 27 and 29. This is a developing weather pattern and I’ll tweak the forecast over the next 24 hours.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville
30 |
Ivanhoe
28 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
30 |
McFarland
28 |
Ducor
31 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
29 |
Exeter
29 |
Famoso
28 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
29 |
Delano
31 |
North Bakersfield
31 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root Creek
28 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
31 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
30 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: December 2/am