December 4, 2020
Summary: Temperatures this afternoon, as of 1:30, are running in the low to mid 60s. Dew points have risen considerably, but are still quite low. This is discussed in the frost section below. Fairly weak upper level high pressure covers the eastern Pacific eastward through the Pacific Northwest while a low center has dropped into northern Mexico. The surface flow is still off shore, but it isn’t very strong. This will continue through the weekend.
A weak trough of low pressure will move into the Pacific Northwest Sunday then will form a new low center somewhere near eastern Oregon. It will move southward through Nevada, southwestward through southern California Monday and will finally park off the waters west of the northern Baja coast. As the low tracks just to our east late Sunday night and Monday, the circulation around the low will create a northeast flow. For a short time, the Sierra Nevada would be the recipient of potential strong, gusty winds.
As the low tracks through southern California and finally off the northern Baja coastline, this same circulation pattern will become out of the east. Meanwhile, strong surface high pressure will develop again over the Great Basin for a strong easterly flow through the Kern County mountains. This could, conceivably, affect the extreme south valley again on Monday night and Tuesday. This is by no means a given and this forecast will require tweaking.
Finally, by Thursday of next week, a trough of low pressure will move through the Pacific Northwest, clipping northern California before diving into the Great Basin. Any active weather would be to our north then our east.
Still no change in sight for the overall blocking pattern. In fact, the new two week outlook going out through the 18th maintains above average temperatures with below average precipitation.
Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear through Sunday morning. partly cloudy Sunday afternoon through Monday night. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 28/65/28/62 | Reedley 27/66/27/62 | Dinuba 27/65/27/61 | |
| Porterville 27/67/28/62 | Lindsay 26/66/27/61 | Delano 27/68/28/62 | |
| Bakersfield 37/68/39/62 | Taft 44/67/45/63 | Arvin 29/68/30/63 | |
| Lamont 29/67/30/61 | Pixley 27/67/28/63 | Tulare 26/65/27/61 | |
| Woodlake 27/65/28/62 | Hanford 28/66/29/62 | Orosi 26/65/27/61 | |
Winds: Winds through Sunday night will be at or less than 10 MPH during the late mornings and afternoons and less than 5 MPH during the night and early morning hours with extended periods of near calm conditions. Winds beginning Monday will be off shore and fairly strong. There is a chance of gusty east to southeast winds making it down to the valley floor in Kern County. For now, the configuration doesn’t look as favorable as the pattern for yesterday’s event, but it will be close.
Rain: Expect dry weather tonight and for at least the next 7 to possibly 10 days.
Frost: The dew point at Meadows Field in Bakersfield as of 1:30 was 15 degrees, which is extremely low but it is 16 degrees higher than 24 hours ago. The dew point at Porterville was 27. Then roughly from a line from Tulare/Visalia/Exeter north, dew points have struggled into the lower 30s. this means the air mass on the valley floor is still very dry.
With a stable environment out there tonight and tomorrow night, the atmosphere will have no problem radiating its heat skyward for widespread mid to upper 20s. Coldest frost pockets will dip down to 24 to 25 with most flatland locations between 26 and 29 degrees. Hillsides will be well into the 30s.
We’ll study the dew point situation and see what tomorrow’s forecast looks like.
The inversion tonight should be decent with temperatures at 34 feet generally from 4 to 7 degrees higher at most locations.
Coldest river bottom and similar locations will drop to 32 as early as 10:00pm tonight and 28 degrees by roughly 2:00am. Temperatures won’t rise to above freezing until somewhere in the 8:30-9:00am range.
Monday morning’s forecast is a tough call for now as an upper low will be moving southward through Nevada, skirting central California then moving through southern California Monday and Monday night, finally landing west of northern Baja Monday night and Tuesday. It’s possible there may be enough mixing Monday morning for a bit of help, but no guarantee for now. There may be some cloud cover entering the picture, as well. A potential strong off shore flow will develop late Monday through Tuesday, possibly injecting another layer of dry air on the valley floor.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
27 |
Porterville
27 |
Ivanhoe
25 |
Woodlake
26 |
| Strathmore
27 |
McFarland
26 |
Ducor
28 |
Tea Pot Dome
27 |
| Lindsay
26 |
Exeter
26 |
Famoso
25 |
Madera
28 |
| Belridge
26 |
Delano
27 |
North Bakersfield
27 |
Orosi
26 |
| Orange Cove
27 |
Lindcove
26 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
23 |
| Root Creek
25 |
Venice Hill
27 |
Rosedale
28 |
Jasmine
28 |
| Arvin
29 |
Lamont
29 |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
31 |
| Edison
32 |
Maricopa
27 |
Holland Creek
30 |
Tivy Valley
27 |
| Kite Road South
30 |
Kite Road North
27 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: December 5/am