December 5, 2020
Summary: For the fifth of December, this is one balmy afternoon. As of 1:30, Bakersfield was reporting 68 degrees and Porterville 69. Most other locations were in the mid 60s. Dew points remain extremely low, which is discussed in the frost section.
In the overall pattern, a trough of low pressure is currently moving into the Pacific Northwest. Doppler radar is showing some light showers off the northwest California coast and considerable cloudiness off the central coast. These clouds will move over the valley tonight.
As this system moves through Washington and Oregon, it will morph into a closed low circulation pattern over eastern Oregon then slide southward through Nevada Sunday and Sunday evening, over southern California Monday and finally park over the northern Baja coast by Tuesday morning. for a rather complex pattern, models have been very consistent on this over the past few days.
This low will not bring precipitation, however as it moves southward just to our east, a strong northeast flow will begin late Sunday night and Monday, possibly generating some Mono winds along the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada. Then, as the low settles in by the northern Baja coastline, the counterclockwise circulation around it will turn the winds from east to west. This will coincide with a strong surface high centering over Idaho Monday through Tuesday. Strong, gusty, easterly winds can be expected along the Kern County mountains. It’s still a possibility that these winds will make it down to the valley floor Monday and Monday night. for now, we’re keeping this in the chance category, but it’s certainly something to be aware of.
A trough of low pressure will move through the Pacific Northwest Thursday, kicking the Baja system eastward in the process. The problem with all this is that none of it will bring rain to central California, although the GFS model over the past few days is hinting at a pattern change about the 14th or 15th which could conceivably bring rain back to the growing area.
Forecast: Becoming mostly cloudy tonight. clearing before sunrise. Mostly clear Sunday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 29/61/28/61 | Reedley 29/62/28/61 | Dinuba 28/61/28/61 | |
| Porterville 29/63/28/62 | Lindsay 28/62/28/61 | Delano 30/63/29/61 | |
| Bakersfield 42//62/38/62 | Taft 46/62/47/62 | Arvin 35/63/33/61 | |
| Lamont 33/63/32/61 | Pixley 29/62/28/61 | Tulare 28/61/28/60 | |
| Woodlake 29/61/28/61 | Hanford 30/62/29/61 | Orosi 29/62/28/61 | |
Winds: Winds tonight through Sunday night will be at or less than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons and at or less than 5 MPH during the night and early morning hours. From Monday into early Tuesday, there is a chance of gusty east to southeast Santa Ana winds making it down slope off the extreme southern Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains into the extreme south valley. The configuration is not quite as aligned as that which caused the winds earlier this week, close enough that I feel it’s necessary to keep this chance in the forecast. If they do make it down to the valley floor, gusts in excess of 40 MPH would certainly be possible. The remainder of the valley would continue to see light winds through Tuesday.
Rain: Expect dry weather tonight and for at least the next 7 to possibly 10 days.
Frost: Tonight’s forecast is again tricky. There is a considerable amount of mid and high level clouds off the central coast which will be moving overhead beginning this afternoon. These bands of clouds will continue to move overhead for much of the night, however, it’s entirely possible they could be east of the valley before sunrise.
Dew points remain extremely low. The dew point at Bakersfield was only 15 and just 25 in Porterville. Most other locations were in the upper 20s to the lower 30s. air temperatures are quite warm this afternoon, meaning it will take longer for temperatures to slide below freezing than it has of late. If this were to be a completely clear night, I would be forecasting readings lower than what you will see here. Even so, I want to go with upper 20s and lower 30s at most locations with frost pockets down to 26 to 27 and with with most flat land locations between 29 and 32.
For Monday morning, a low will be tracking through southern California, resulting in a very strong off shore flow. It may add enough mixing to the atmosphere to hold temperatures up somewhat.
From Tuesday through Thursday, for now upper 20s to lower 30s are pretty much a given, however we will have to study dew points due to this strong off shore flow and determine any effects on the valley floor.
The bottom line is, we need significant rain to soak the valley to bring back fog and low clouds like we normally see this time of year, but for now it’s not on the horizon.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
28 |
Porterville
29 |
Ivanhoe
27 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
29 |
McFarland
28 |
Ducor
30 |
Tea Pot dome
29 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
28 |
Madera
29 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
29 |
North Bakersfield
30 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
26 |
| Root creek
27 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
30 |
Jasmine
31 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
29 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
28 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: December 6/am