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Forecast

December 6, 2020/pm update

December 6, 2020

Summary: A low pressure system is currently tracking south/southwest and is currently located over northwest Nevada.  By sunrise tomorrow, this system will be almost directly overhead.  Some models are actually indicating a chance for sprinkles over the high elevations of the Sierra Monday and Monday night, but nothing measurable is expected on the valley floor.  As this storm moves through late tonight and Monday, a strong northeast flow will develop, generating some strong gusty winds along the west facing slopes of the sierra Nevada.  These winds will track southward Monday then, as the low moves off the southern California coast and eventually just west of northern Baja, a strong easterly flow aloft will develop.  This will be coupled with a strong surface high developing over Idaho, generating a strong surface off shore flow, as well.  I’m still going with a small chance of Santa Ana winds making their way down to the valley floor Monday and Monday night.  this will only affect Kern County.  If the winds do develop, gusts over 40 to 50 MPH are possible near the base of the extreme southern Sierra Nevada and Kern County mountains.

 

Pressure differences will begin to weaken later Tuesday, so winds should not be a factor.  By Thursday, a weak trough of low pressure will be traversing the Pacific Northwest and northern California, kicking the Baja system eastward, as well.  High pressure over the eastern Pacific will park just off shore Friday and Saturday, generating a northwest flow which will bring daytime highs down to seasonal levels.  It may also bring dew points up higher than what we’ve become accustomed to.

 

I’ve been watching medium range models for about the 14th and 15th of December.  Some of these have projected an increasing chance of rain over northern California and to a lesser extent, southern California.  Even the new two week model is picking up on this trend which now indicates there’s at least a chance of above average rain for northern California with a reduced chance over southern California.

 

Forecast:  Variable cloudiness tonight and Monday.  Partly cloudy Monday night.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Sunday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 33/61/29/63 Reedley 32/62/29/64 Dinuba 30/60/28/63
Porterville 31/61/28/64 Lindsay 30/61/28/64 Delano 32/62/29/65
Bakersfield 39/62/37/65 Taft 44/60/46/65 Arvin 36/61/32/64
Lamont 34/61/31/65 Pixley 30/62/32/64 Tulare 30/60/28/63
Woodlake 30/61/28/63 Hanford 32/62/30/64 Orosi 29/61/28/64

 

Winds: Along the west side tonight, winds will be out of the northwest or west at 8 to 15 MPH.  elsewhere, winds will be generally light and variable. North of Kern County, winds Monday through Wednesday will be generally at or less than 10 MPH late morning through the afternoon hours and less than 6 MPH during the night and early morning hours with periods of near calm conditions.  From Monday through early Tuesday, a strong easterly flow both at the surface and aloft will generate strong Santa Ana winds over the Kern County mountains and extreme southern Sierra Nevada.  I still think it’s possible that these winds could make it down slope, reaching the extreme southern portion of the valley.  If this does occur, winds in excess of 40 MPH will be possible at places such as the bottom of the Grapevine and also the Highway 58 corridor before it goes up into the Tehachapi Mountains.  Pressure differences will relax by later Tuesday morning, ending the winds threat with light winds everywhere by Wednesday.

 

Rain:  Expect dry weather tonight and for at least the next 7 to possibly 10 days.

 

Frost:  The character of the air on the valley floor north of Kern County is changing.  Temperatures are down anywhere from 3 to 6 degrees north of Kern County and more importantly, dew points are 3 to 9 degrees higher.  As of 1:30, the dewpoint at Madera had reached 40 with dew points in the mid to upper 30s elsewhere.  These higher dew points will spread into Kern County during the early morning hours, but will be a temporary change.  Winds have also picked up along the west side of the valley.  At last report, Lemoore was reporting winds out of the north at 16 MPH.

 

An upper low will be tracking southward almost directly overhead by sunrise Monday.  It will be accompanied by mid and high level clouds.  The combination of higher dew points and at least in and out cloud cover should maintain readings generally in the low to mid 30s tonight.

 

The flip side to all this is, once this low tracks southward, a strong off shore flow will again begin along the west facing slopes of the southern Sierra Nevada and in Kern County.  There is a chance these winds will make it down to the valley portion of Kern County Monday and Monday night.  all of this would reverse the dew point situation with dry air mixing down to the valley floor.  So, Tuesday and Wednesday could  potentially be a few degrees colder.

 

A northwest flow aloft will develop Thursday through Saturday, ending the off shore flow and hopefully nudging dew points up a bit.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

31

Porterville

32

Ivanhoe

30

Woodlake

30

Strathmore

31

McFarland

30

Ducor

32

Tea Pot Dome

30

Lindsay

30

Exeter

29

Famoso

30

Madera

33

Belridge

30

Delano

32

North Bakersfield

32

Orosi

30

Orange Cove

30

Lindcove

29

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

28

Root Creek

29

Venice Hill

32

Rosedale

Af

Jasmine

33

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

30

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

31

Holland Creek

Af

Tivy Valley

30

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

30

AF=Above Freezing

Next report: December 7/am