December 8, 2020
The main feature out there this morning is a closed low centered roughly 300 miles to the west of the northern Baja coastline. The cloud canopy from this system is as far north as Kern County and is spreading slowly northward. This may affect temperatures in portions of the south valley this afternoon. An easterly flow is in place, wrapping around the northern rim of the low, generating an off shore flow although not as strong as 12 hours ago. Models indicate pressure differences will begin to relax later today. The low will be kicked inland into the Desert Southwest Thursday as a weak trough of low pressure moves into the Pacific Northwest then dives into the Great Basin. Behind this system, is a northwest flow which is finally an onshore flow.
A series of Pacific storms will move into the Pacific Northwest, spreading showers over roughly the northern ¼ of California from time to time from Friday through Monday. Hopefully we’ll get some cloud cover from these systems, which would help nudge up overnight low temperatures.
I’m still looking at medium range models from the 15th and beyond. The pattern is more favorable for rain from time to time over northern California. On paper, central California is just south of the zone of active weather but there are considerable models differences plus the fact that we are still a week out.
Forecast: Partly cloudy at times from Kings and Tulare Counties south with mostly clear skies in Fresno and Madera Counties. Mostly clear later Wednesday through Thursday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloud Thursday night through Monday. Mostly cloudy Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 63/29/66/30/63 | Reedley 64/28/67/39/63 | Dinuba 63/29/67/31/62 |
| Porterville 64/29/66/30/63 | Lindsay 64/28/66/29/62 | Delano 65/30/67/31/63 |
| Bakersfield 64/41/68/43/61 | Taft 64/45/66/47/62 | Arvin 65/35/67/36/63 |
| Lamont 64/34/67/36/62 | Pixley 64/30/67/31/63 | Tulare 64/29/65/30/62 |
| Woodlake 63/30/66/31/63 | Hanford 64/31/67/32/63 | Orosi 63/29/67/30/62 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly clear 30/58 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 31/61 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 33/65 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 37/62 |
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy 38/58 |
Two Week Outlook: December 14 through December 20: This model gives a fairly high risk of rain for northern California but a low possibility of rain for southern California. As is many times the case, central California is on the dividing line. Daytime temperatures will continue to run somewhat above seasonal norms.
December: This model shows above average temperatures during the month of December. Southern California should experience below average precipitation. There is some hope for northern and central California, however, as this model spits out equal chances of above or below average rainfall. We’re hoping for the above average side of things.
December, January, February: This model definitely reflects a La Nina pattern, which is when ocean temperatures are below average through the equatorial waters off of Peru, extending into the mid Pacific. Typically, this results in above average temperatures for much of the southern half of the U.S., including California, with unfortunately below average precipitation for California including the valley.
Winds Discussion: Through Friday, winds during the late morning and afternoons will be variable to no more than 10 MPH. During the night and early morning hours, winds will be generally at or less than 5 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to possibly 10 days.
Frost Discussion: There was considerable differences in temperatures from place to place overnight due to the ongoing off shore flow and even some cloud cover, mainly in Kern County. The coldest readings this morning as of 6:30 were 26 at Ivanhoe and 27 at Fowler, Orange Cove, and Reedley.
The wild card tonight is potential cloud cover over the south valley, especially in Kern County. The northern rim of the cloud canopy is currently reaching into the south valley and it may progress a bit further north. If enough cloud cover is overhead tonight, mainly in the south valley, widespread low to mid 30s would develop. Where skies remain relatively clear, coldest unprotected low lying frost pockets will drop to 25 to 26 degrees with most flat land locations between 28 and 32. Much of Kern County may be above freezing tonight.
The inversion tonight will be pretty decent with temperatures at 34 feet from 4 to 8 degrees warmer at most locations. Expect similar conditions Thursday morning
Beginning Friday, a series of storms will be moving through the Pacific Northwest with showers affecting much of the northern ¼ of the state. Hopefully we’ll see enough cloud cover from time to time to begin the moderation process. Also, beginning Thursday, the winds at the surface and aloft will be onshore for a change. This may also aid in nudging up dew points.
For now, Friday through Sunday widespread low to mid 30s are expected with coldest locations in the upper 20s.
Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for December 8, 2020:
Today’s air quality is listed as moderate for Merced County. Air quality for December 8 for the remainder of the growing area is posted as Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern, Low to mid 30s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 84%/40% Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .54, Parlier .48, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .67, Orange Cove .51, Porterville .NA, Delano .47. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 50, Blackwell 56, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 51, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 77/25. Average Temperatures: 56/35
Heating Degree Days This Season: 522, -108
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 48.9 +2.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .28, -1.73, Month to Date: .00, -.31
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .39, +or- -.74. Month to date .00, -.19
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 275, Parlier, 340, Arvin, 256, Shafter, 279, Stratford, 313, Delano, 329, Lindcove, NA, Porterville, 371
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 7:00 am Sunset: 4:43 pm Hours of Daylight: 9:43
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 68 / 29 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 65 / 30 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 63 / 37 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 61 / 30 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 63 / 28 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 61 / 39 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 62 / 31 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1553 / 63 / 38 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 62 / 31 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 68 / 37 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.09 3 3.81 130 2.94 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.10 4 2.62 108 2.42 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.08 49 4.29 195 2.20 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.16 7 1.68 74 2.28 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.28 14 1.89 94 2.01 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.13 8 1.42 86 1.66 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.39 35 1.28 113 1.13 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 1.05 111 0.95 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.37 16 3.51 149 2.36 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.28 14 3.81 192 1.98 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.25 11 2.34 101 2.32 13.95
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
28 |
Porterville
29 |
Ivanhoe
27 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
29 |
McFarland
28 |
Ducor
30 |
Tea Pot Dome
29 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
29 |
Madera
29 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
30 |
North Bakersfield
31 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
26 |
| Root Creek
27 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
31 |
Jasmine
31 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
29 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
30 |
Holland Creek
33 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
33 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: December 8/pm