December 9, 2020
The closed low just off the northern Baja coastline continues to spread mid and high level clouds over central and southern California. To our north, a trough of low pressure is approaching the coast of the Pacific Northwest which will kick the Baja system eastward into the Desert Southwest Thursday. The trough will dive into the Great Basin and will also move a dry cold front through central California Thursday. Finally, on Thursday night and Friday, a northwest flow will develop in the atmosphere along with a surface onshore flow, something we haven’t seen for a few weeks.
Beginning Friday night, upper level high pressure will remain well off shore but will still be close enough to keep central and southern California dry. Wave after wave of low pressure will move through the Pacific Northwest Friday night through Monday with showers spreading over much of northern California, possibly down to a Monterey/Merced line. Lift may squeeze some showers out as far south as Kings Canyon along the Sierra Nevada. So far, it appears we will reman just south of the zone of active weather.
After Monday, a ridge of high pressure will begin to build in from the west for several days of dry weather, at least through Thursday and Friday of next week. Beyond that, there are many differences on models, however at this time there is no strong indication of the storm track moving far enough to the south to bring rain to central California.
Forecast: partly cloudy today. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy tonight through Thursday. Partly cloudy Thursday night. variable cloudiness at times Friday through Monday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday night through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 65/30/63/31/56 | Reedley 66/30/64/30/56 | Dinuba 65/29/64/29/55 |
| Porterville 66/30/64/30/55 | Lindsay 66/29/64/29/55 | Delano 67/31/62/31/54 |
| Bakersfield 68/43/63/38/54 | Taft 67/46/62/44/55 | Arvin 67/36/62/35/54 |
| Lamont 67/36/63/35/54 | Pixley 66/29/64/29/55 | Tulare 65/29/64/29/54 |
| Woodlake 65/30/64/30/56 | Hanford 67/32/64/31/55 | Orosi 65/29/64/29/55 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Variable clouds 36/58 |
Sunday
Mostly cloudy 38/62 |
Monday
Mostly cloudy 41/58 |
Tuesday
Partly cloud 37/59 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 34/57 |
Two Week Outlook: December 16 through December 22: This model gives a fairly high risk of rain for northern California but a low possibility of rain for southern California. As is many times the case, central California is on the dividing line. Daytime temperatures will continue to run somewhat above seasonal norms.
December: This model shows above average temperatures during the month of December. Southern California should experience below average precipitation. There is some hope for northern and central California, however, as this model spits out equal chances of above or below average rainfall. We’re hoping for the above average side of things.
December, January, February: This model definitely reflects a La Nina pattern, which is when ocean temperatures are below average through the equatorial waters off of Peru, extending into the mid Pacific. Typically, this results in above average temperatures for much of the southern half of the U.S., including California, with unfortunately below average precipitation for California including the valley.
Winds Discussion: Winds through Saturday will be variable to no more than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons. During the night and early morning hours, winds will be no more than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. However, on Thursday and Thursday night, winds, mainly along the I-5 corridor at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to possibly 10 days.
Frost Discussion: Widespread low to mid 30s are evident this morning. the coldest I could find as ot 6:30 was 29 at Lindcove, McFarland, and Ivanhoe. Cloud cover will again play a central role tonight. it’s possible much of the cloud cover from the low off the Baja coastline will begin to move northeastward through Nevada instead of California. It’s also possible more cloud cover could develop as we remain on the far northern rim of the circulation around the low. For now, unprotected river bottom and similar locations will drop down to 27 to 28 tonight with most flatland locations ranging between 29 and 33. A number of locations in Kern County will only drop into the mid 30s.
A dry cold front will move through the valley Thursday night and Friday, spreading a cooler air mass into central California, however, over the weekend and early next week, a series of storms will keep heavy rain at times over the Pacific Northwest with showers into northern California. We will be south of the active weather, but cloud cover will spread over central California plus we’ll have that onshore flow nudging up dew points.
So Friday morning, upper 20s to the mid 30s can be expected then just possibly above freezing conditions Saturday with generally above freezing conditions Sunday through the middle of next week.
Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for December 8, 2020:
Today’s air quality is listed as moderate for Merced and Tulare Counties. Air quality for December 9 for the remainder of the growing area is posted as Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern, Low to mid 30s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 96%/36% Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .51, Parlier .46, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .64, Orange Cove .49, Porterville .NA, Delano .44. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 50, Blackwell 56, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 51, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 70/23. Average Temperatures: 56/34
Heating Degree Days This Season: 541, -109
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 48.6 +2.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .28, -1.78, Month to Date: .00, -.36
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .39, +or- -.77. Month to date .00, -.22
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 287, Parlier, 354, Arvin, 264, Shafter, 294, Stratford, 327, Delano, 344, Lindcove, NA, Porterville, 387
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 7:01 am Sunset: 4:43 pm Hours of Daylight: 9:43
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 64 / 32 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 64 / 37 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 63 / 37 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 62 / 30 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 63 / 27 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 65 / 39 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 64 / 32 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / 44 / 37 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 62 / 36 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 60 / 34 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.09 3 3.90 130 3.01 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.10 4 2.75 111 2.48 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.08 48 4.52 202 2.24 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.16 7 1.90 82 2.32 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.28 14 2.47 120 2.06 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.13 8 1.75 104 1.69 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.39 34 1.58 136 1.16 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 1.06 109 0.97 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.37 15 4.09 169 2.42 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.28 14 4.70 230 2.04 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.25 11 2.68 113 2.38 13.95
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville
30 |
Ivanhoe
28 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
29 |
McFarland
29 |
Ducor
31 |
Tea Pot Dome
29 |
| Lindsay
29 |
Exeter
29 |
Famoso
30 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
30 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
29o |
| Orange Cove
28 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
26 |
| Root Creek
28 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
31 |
Jasmine
31 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
29 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
29 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: December 9/pm