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Forecast

December 10, 2020/pm update

December 10, 2020

Summary: The pattern is quickly undergoing a change for the better.  Tonight will be the last night of this long string of frost nights.  The colder locations have been at or below freezing for 18 days in a row, which is quite an amazing stint.  One low pressure system is quickly moving eastward and is now near the New Mexico/Arizona border.  It is being spanked eastward by the first of a series of low pressure systems to move through the Pacific Northwest and northern California.  This first system will be an inside slider with the main dynamics moving into the Great Basin east of the Sierra Nevada.  Even so, a dry cold front will move down the valley tonight.  I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of upslope clouds developing against the valley facing slopes of the Kern County mountains and possibly the southern Sierra Nevada.  If these low level clouds do develop, it would be during the hours before sunrise.

 

Skies will very temporarily clear Friday, even with mostly clear skies it will be noticeably cooler as a strong northwesterly flow aloft finally mixes out the old dingy air mass that’s been trapped on the valley floor for so long. Friday night, clouds will increase ahead of the next system which will spread rain over the Pacific Northwest and northern California Friday night and Saturday morning.  measurable rain will be possible from Fresno County northward and I wouldn’t be surprised to hear of a few sprinkles in the south valley as well.

 

It now appears the next chance of measurable rain will occur Sunday and Sunday night, even though the main dynamics of this system will move through northern California then into the Great Basin.

 

Upper level high pressure which will be several hundred miles off shore during the weekend will begin to push inland late Monday with dry weather through at least Wednesday.   however, I’m a bit more hopeful on the possibility of rain Thursday and Friday of next week.  Models are showing a vigorous low pressure system moving through and possibly more several days thereafter.  Hopefully this change we’re witnessing will be with us for a while.

 

Forecast:  mostly clear tonight.  Possibly becoming partly cloudy in Kern County and southeastern Tulare County tonight and Friday morning.  Mostly clear Friday afternoon.  Increasing clouds Friday night leading to a chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno County north after midnight through Saturday morning.  partly to mostly cloudy Saturday afternoon and night.  Mostly cloudy Sunday and Sunday night with a chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno County north.  Partly to mostly cloudy Monday.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday night through Wednesday.  increasing clouds Wednesday night leading to a slight chance of rain Thursday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 28/56/38/57 Reedley 27/57/39/58 Dinuba 28/58/37/57
Porterville 27/57/39/56 Lindsay 27/56/38/56 Delano 28/57/39/58
Bakersfield 36/55/41/56 Taft 43/56/41/56 Arvin 32/57/41/57
Lamont 31/58/40/57 Pixley 27/57/39/57 Tulare 26/56/37/57
Woodlake 28/57/38/58 Hanford 29/56/40/57 Orosi 27/56/37/57

 

Winds: Winds through Sunday will be variable to no more than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons.  During the night and early morning hours, winds will be no more than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.  However, on Thursday through Friday morning, winds, mainly along the I-5 corridor at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts.

 

Rain:  From Fresno County north, there will be a legitimate chance of light showers Friday night and Saturday morning then again Sunday through Sunday night.  Even a few renegade sprinkles cannot be ruled out in the south valley.  On both occurrences, less than .10 can be expected north of Fresno County and generally just trace amounts in the south valley.

 

Dry weather will return Monday through Wednesday.

 

There is a bit of a trend developing on the possibility of rain next Thursday and Friday. So far, it looks like a low pressure system will move through central California with potentially significant amounts over the Sierra Nevada.  Models for later next weekend and beyond were also looking a bit more favorable, especially for northern California.

 

Frost:  Tonight will be the 18th night in a row where colder locations have dipped at or below freezing and it is shaping up to be a chilly one.  However, it will be the final subfreezing night in this long stretch.  With generally clear skies, dew points in the low to mid 30s, and the longest nights of the year and yes, we will observe temperatures in the frost pockets down to 25 to 26 degrees with most flat terrain locations ranging from 27 to 30 with hillsides above freezing.

 

The inversion for the early part of the night will be decent with temperatures 4 to 8 degrees warmer. That may weaken towards sunrise as a dry cold front moves through.  It’s also possible that upslope clouds be begin to bank up against the valley facing slopes of the Kern County mountains and the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada.  If these clouds do form, I would look for it to occur during the predawn hours.

 

Where clouds do develop, readings will rise into the low to mid 30s at most locations.

 

Saturday through Tuesday mornings, all locations will be above freezing with possibly above freezing conditions continuing Wednesday through Friday with the possibility of rain.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

27

Porterville

27

Ivanhoe

26

Woodlake

28

Strathmore

28

McFarland

26

Ducor

28

Tea Pot Dome

28

Lindsay

27

Exeter

27

Famoso

27

Madera

28

Belridge

30

Delano

28

North Bakersfield

28

Orosi

27

Orange Cove

28

Lindcove

27

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

25

Root Creek

26

Venice Hill

28

Rosedale

29

Jasmine

29

Arvin

31

Lamont

30

Plainview

28

Mettler

31

Edison

31

Maricopa

27

Holland Creek

31

Tivy Valley

28

Kite Road South

31

Kite Road North

28

AF=Above Freezing

Next update:  December 11/am