December 11, 2020
Summary: As of 1:30pm, Doppler radar had indicated light rain had moved as far south as the Bay Area. Through Monday, we will be under an entirely different weather pattern which will favor precipitation for central California, especially north of Kern County. Actually, Kern County could even pick up a few hundredths from this first event but the trough of low pressure and its associated cold front will move through between midnight tonight and late morning Saturday.
Each set of models that comes across my desk is more bullish on rain than before, so I can safely say showers likely north of Kern County between now and Saturday morning.
In the big picture, the eastern Pacific high has migrated further west out over the ocean. This is allowing Pacific storms in the northeast Pacific to slide down the northeast rim of the high and into California. A second system will arrive Sunday and Sunday night. the main energy with this system will be over the northern half of California. However, considering model trends, I would not completely rule out light showers, even in the south valley.
From Monday afternoon through Wednesday, the off shore high will nudge closer to the coast. Even so, we will remain under a cool northwest flow aloft. Unfortunately, models seem to be backing off on a system moving through northern and central California Thursday into Friday. Models keep pointing to this system moving in further north, so for now the chance of ran Thursday and Friday is waning. A blocking ridge of high pressure will be off shore next weekend through the following week for at least a temporary return to a dry pattern.
Forecast: Light showers spreading over the valley north of Kern County tonight with a chance of light showers in Kern County. Showers likely for a time Saturday morning north of Kern County and a chance in Kern County. Mostly to partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. a chance of light showers Sunday through Sunday night, mainly north of Kern County. Partly to mostly cloudy Monday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday night through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 41/55/42/58 | Reedley 42/55/41/58 | Dinuba 40/54/40/57 | |
| Porterville 42/55/42/58 | Lindsay 40/54/40/57 | Delano 42/56/42/58 | |
| Bakersfield 43/55/42/59 | Taft 45/55/52/59 | Arvin 43/54/42/57 | |
| Lamont 43/54/42/57 | Pixley 42/56/41/58 | Tulare 40/54/40/57 | |
| Woodlake 40/55/41/57 | Hanford 42/55/41/56 | Orosi 39/54/40/55 | |
Winds: Winds through Monday will be variable to no more than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons. During the night and early morning hours, winds will be no more than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: It’s been a long time since I’ve been able to call for the likelihood of showers. As of the time of this writing, it’s already raining from the Bay Area northward. Light showers will spread over the valley, mainly after midnight, lasting into Saturday morning. Rainfall amounts will range from .10 to .25 from Fresno County north and possibly even more, mainly in Madera County. Rainfall amounts in Kings and Tulare Counties will range between .05 and .15 and generally only a few hundredths at best over the valley portion of Kern County. On Saturday afternoon through Saturday night will be dry then light showers will spread in from the west later Sunday through Sunday night. the best chance of rain from this system will be north of Kern County and especially from Fresno County north with generally no more than .10.
Dry weather will return Monday and we need to amend the forecast and call for dry weather later next week, as well, as models continue to show the storm track remaining north.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and each night through at least Monday. We could see some low to mid 30s Wednesday and Thursday, however there’s no indication of the type of cold we’ve seen over the past two and a half weeks. Nothing on longer range models pointing to a cold weather episode on the horizon.
Next update: December 12/am