December 14, 2020
Summary: As of 1:30, a solid layer of low clouds was covering the eastern side of Tulare County and over much of Kern County. The overcast above Kern County was based at 4,300 feet, 1,200 feet over Porterville, and 1,100 feet over Visalia. The center and west side of the valley are enjoying bright sunshine this afternoon.
The northwest flow will continue above the valley floor tonight, continuing to regenerate upslope clouds against the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains and the west facing slopes of the southern Sierra Nevada, mainly in Tulare County.
The flip side is that where skies are clear, fog will have no problem forming overnight and, with weak high pressure building in from the west, a warm air inversion will be conducive for widespread fog and low clouds with some clearing Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.
Temperatures, both for highs and lows, will be determined by the amount of fog and low clouds at any given location.
The next system of note will spread showers over northern California Wednesday, reaching Fresno County possibly after midnight Wednesday night with showers spreading into the south valley Thursday. Models still indicate this system will be similar to last night’s event for possibly some decent amounts of rain from Fresno County north, sloping to very little in Kern County.
The system will move into Nevada Thursday night as upper level high pressure strengthens over the eastern Pacific and expands inland over California, possibly all the way through the middle of next week. This should be the beginning of our first multi-day fog regime starting Saturday with our wintertime fog and low clouds nights and mornings with partial clearing in the afternoons. It’s possible some locations may not clear at all. In those locations, we would probably see highs in the mid and upper 40s, which is currently just conjecture on my part.
Forecast: Low overcast in eastern Tulare County and Kern County tonight. mostly clear elsewhere but with widespread dense fog and/or low clouds developing after midnight. Widespread fog and/or low clouds Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Clearing beginning Wednesday afternoon. Increasing clouds Wednesday night with a chance of showers from Fresno north after midnight. Showers spreading southward over the remainder of the valley Thursday. Mostly cloudy Thursday night and Friday morning. clearing towards the center and west side of the valley Friday afternoon. Mostly cloudy elsewhere. Partly to mostly cloudy in Kern and Tulare County Friday night then extensive fog and/or low clouds Saturday through Monday with clearing in some areas during the afternoons.
Short Term:
| Madera 32/54/30/55 | Reedley 32/53/29/54 | Dinuba 31/53/29/55 | |
| Porterville 35/53/33/55 | Lindsay 34/54/30/;55 | Delano 33/55/30/55 | |
| Bakersfield 41/54/37/58 | Taft 43/54/44/59 | Arvin 41/53/34/60 | |
| Lamont 39/54/34/60 | Pixley 32/53/29/55 | Tulare 30/53/29/55 | |
| Woodlake 33’/53/29/55 | Hanford 33/54/30/56 | Orosi 32/53/28/54 | |
Winds: Winds through the early evening hours will remain out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts from roughly a Lemoore/Visalia line north. Winds later this evening will be light and variable with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Tuesday through Wednesday will be variable to no more than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons and at or less than 6 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions nights and early mornings. Winds Thursday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain: Expect dry weather through Wednesday evening. The chance of showers will begin to increase after midnight Wednesday night from Fresno County north then spread southward over the remainder of the valley Thursday. This will be another fast mover with precipitation amounts possibly exceeding .33 from Fresno County north and generally less than .10 in Kern County and along the west side of Fresno and Kings Counties. Portions of eastern Tulare County will hopefully approach .25 or so. Dry weather will quickly return Thursday night and continue through the weekend. Unfortunately, most models are indicating another blocking ridge pattern will develop so it’s possible we may remain dry through at least Christmas.
Frost: Skies have cleared out from Fresno County northward and towards the center and west side of the valley north of Kern County. Eastern Tulare County and most of Kern County are still covered by a low overcast. A rather robust push of northwesterly winds is pushing down the valley. As they’re lifted by the Tehachapi and the southern Sierra Nevada, the air condenses into a low overcast. It may keep regenerating through the night. where the overcast is prevalent, temperatures will only fall into the mid 30s to even the lower 40s.
Elsewhere, after midnight widespread low clouds and fog will develop, however before that occurs, readings in fog free areas and unprotected low spots could potentially drop to 27 to 28 degrees and 29 to 34 in typical flat land locations.
On Wednesday morning, we will simply have to observe the behavior of the fog and low clouds. If they become widespread enough, it’s possible some locations may not clear out at all, above freezing conditions will prevail. However, where skies remain clear for most of the night, widespread upper 20s and lower 30s are a good bet with Kern County in the mid 30s.
Above freezing conditions can be expected Thursday and Friday mornings as the next weather system moves through. Models show persistent high pressure building in this weekend and beyond which may lock us into our first multi-day fog regime. In that event, most mornings would remain above freezing.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
Af |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
31 |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
30 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next update: December 15/am