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Forecast

Christmas Eve 2020/report

Strong surface high pressure over the Great Basin combined with a weak low pressure system off th e southern California coast is generating strong Santa Ana winds over the Kern County mountains.  Winds are gusting to 55 MPH at the top of Grapevine Peak, which is near 4,000 feet.  These winds have managed to move downslope and are affecting portions of the Kern County valley floor.  Just east of Bakersfield, winds have gusted to 33 MPH, Lamont 52 MPH, and our usual high wind spot at the bottom of the Grapevine 55 MPH.  north of Kern County, there’s just a potpourri of conditions ranging from dense fog to low overcast to variable high and mid level clouds.

 

The low off the south coast will move inland tonight, throwing variable cloudiness over the valley floor with even a slight chance of a sprinkle or two.  By Christmas morning, this system will have  moved into Arizona.  It’s being followed closely by a trough of low pressure which will move through northern and central California Friday night and Saturday.  what rain does occur will be generally north of Kern County and even from Fresno County north, no more than .10 is likely.

 

This storm will move into the Great Basin Saturday night.  our only real chance at decent rainfall amounts for the rest of this year will occur Sunday night and Monday as a colder system drops southeastward out of the Gulf of Alaska.  Most models place the center of circulation just west of San Francisco Sunday night.  even though the storm will weaken as it moves through central California, the potential for decent amounts of rain on the valley floor is there with snow dropping down to 3,500 to 4,000 feet or so.

 

By Tuesday, upper level high pressure will be building in from the west.  The pattern for now appears to be one where storm after storm moves from west to east in the Pacific Northwest, affecting roughly the northern one-third of California from time to time.  So, La Nina marches on.

 

Forecast:  Areas of fog and low clouds north of Kern County this morning with variable cloudiness above the fog.  In Kern County, expect variable cloudiness with extremely gusty winds at times in the south valley.  Variable cloudiness tonight and Christmas morning with a slight chance of a sprinkle or two.  Partly cloudy Friday afternoon.  Increasing cloudiness Friday night with a chance of light showers after midnight north of Kern County through Saturday.  partly to mostly cloudy Saturday night through Sunday morning.  increasing cloudiness Sunday afternoon with a slight chance of showers by sunset.  Periods of rain Sunday night and Monday, diminishing Monday evening.  Mostly to partly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday morning.  mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon through Thursday with increasing amounts of morning fog and low clouds.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 54/30/60/40/60 Reedley 54/30/61/42/61 Dinuba 52/30/60/40/61
Porterville 58/30/62/41/61 Lindsay 57/29/61/40/61 Delano 58/30/63/42/60
Bakersfield 64/36/65/36/59 Taft 62/47/64/48/61 Arvin 64/32/65/43/58
Lamont 64/31/64/44/59 Pixley 57/30/63/40/60 Tulare 53/29/60/40/59
Woodlake 53/29/60/41/59 Hanford 55/30/61/41/58 Orosi 55/29/61/40/59

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Sunday

PM showers

42/57

Monday

Periods of rain

40/55

Tuesday

AM fog/partly cloudy

34/51

Wednesday

AM fog/partly cloudy

31/53

Thursday

Widespread morning fog/partial clearing

33/53

 

Two Week Outlook:  December 31 through January 6:  This model shows an active pattern moving through the Pacific Northwest and northern California with central California being on the dividing line between wet weather to our north and dry weather to our south.  We would at least have a chance of rain during this period with below average temperatures.

 

January: This model doesn’t really show a trend for temperatures at all.  We’ll call it near average this time around.  Not surprisingly, it does indicate January will have below average precipitation, as has been the case this La Nina year.    

 

January, February, March: This model does not really offer much hope for a decent rainy season as below average precipitation is indicated over the Golden State.  Temperatures over this 90 day period will be generally above seasonal average.   

 

Winds Discussion:  Winds will be very light to near calm at times north of Kern County through Saturday night.  Strong, gusty, Santa Ana winds have managed to move downslope into the extreme south valley.  A wind gust of 55 MPH was recorded at Lamont, the CHP office at the bottom of the Grapevine also recorded a gust of 55 MPH, Mettler 29, and east Bakersfield 33.  The strong difference in pressure between high pressure over the interior and that low off the south coast will continue today.  Winds will die off this morning as the low moves on shore.  Expect light winds tonight through Saturday night.  there is another small chance of strong winds in these same areas later Sunday into early Monday, this time from a low west of San Francisco and higher pressure over the  high desert.  Elsewhere, winds Sunday will pick up at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts.

 

Rain Discussion: It’s possible an isolated sprinkle or two could occur tonight and Christmas morning as a weak upper low moves through southern California.  Later Friday night and Saturday, a weakening trough of low pressure will move through with only light showers, mainly north of Kern County.  It’s possible Fresno and Madera Counties could pick up as much as .10 with possibly a few  hundredths in Kings and Tulare Counties.  No measurable rain is expected in Kern County.  Expect dry weather Saturday night through Sunday morning.  showers may advance as far south as Fresno County by sunset Sunday with the chance of rain steadily increasing Sunday night and rain likely Monday.  North of Kern County could receive between .25 and .33 with possibly .10 or so in Kern County.  Showers will end Monday night.

 

A dry weather pattern will begin Tuesday and, if models are accurate will last for the remainder of next week.

 

Frost Discussion: Temperatures last night ranged from 29 at Porterville and Lindsay to 58 at Maricopa and Edison.  Strong Santa Ana winds managed to make their way to the valley floor in extreme southern Kern County.  Dew points have fallen to near 0 in the extreme south valley, so obviously that drier air we’ve been talking about recently has made a triumphant return.  In the meantime, variable mid and high level clouds are streaming overhead from a weak upper low just off the south coast.  These clouds will be with us for at least the first half of the night, possibly clearing out after midnight.  As it clears, areas north of Kern County will see fog and low clouds form again.

 

For tonight, I’m going to go with upper 20s in coldest locations to low to mid 30s elsewhere.  Saturday through Monday, expect above freezing conditions due to two storm systems moving through: one late Friday night and Saturday and the second late Sunday night and Monday.

 

For Tuesday morning and beyond, the potential will be there for upper 20s and lower 30s.  the air mass moving in behind the second system is fairly cold.  I’m hoping we get a good soaking rain which would naturally aid in the formation of fog and low clouds.  At any rate, as we enter the first week of the new year, there’s no pattern showing up that would be cause for worry.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

29

Porterville

29

Ivanhoe

29

Woodlake

30

Strathmore

30

Mcfarland

29

Ducor

30

Tea Pot Dome

30

Lindsay

29

Exeter

29

Famoso

31

Madera

30

Belridge

28

Delano

31

North Bakersfield

31

Orosi

29

Orange Cove

30

Lindcove

29

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

27

Root Creek

28

Venice Hill

30

Rosedale

30

Jasmine

31

Arvin

31

Lamont

30

Plainview

29

Mettler

Af

Edison

32

Maricopa

29

Holland Creek

33

Tivy Valley

29

Kite Road South

33

Kite Road North

29

AF=Above Freezing

 

Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for December 23, 2020:

 

The air quality for Fresno, Tulare, Kings, and Kern Counties is unsafe for sensitive groups.  The air quality in the remainder of the region is moderate.

 

The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com.  The option to use a specific address is available.

 

In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Low to mid 40s.  Kern, mid to upper 20s.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 99%/60% Porterville, NA

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 30%.  Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 30%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .28, Parlier .27, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .38, Orange Cove .22, Porterville .NA, Delano .25. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 49, Blackwell 55, Arvin, 51, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 51, Delano 44

Record Temperatures: 70/20. Average Temperatures: 53/35

Heating Degree Days This Season: 800  -161 courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for this month So Far: 46.6 +1.8 courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  1.08,  or -1.84,  Month to Date: .80, or -.42

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,  .40, +or-  -1.25  Month to date .01,  or -.70

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 459, Parlier, 545,  Arvin, 443, Belridge, 508, Shafter, 496, Stratford, 518, Delano, 558, Porterville, 600

Hours at 45 or below 45.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise: 7:10 am   Sunset: 4:49 pm   Hours of Daylight:  9:39

 

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1600 /  45 /  42 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  47 /  42 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  48 /  42 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  50 /  42 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  51 /  42 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  57 /  43 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  51 /  41 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1549 /  53 /  33 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  54 /  41 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1600 /   M /   M / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  46 /  29 / 0.00 /

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    1.70    41    4.16   101     4.10    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    1.45    42    3.19    92     3.48    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    2.10    71    0.00     0     2.97    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.69    22    0.00     0     3.17    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    1.08    37    0.00     0     2.92    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.49    20    0.00     0     2.46    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.40    24    0.00     0     1.65     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.01     1    1.08    81     1.34     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.83    25    4.31   129     3.35    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.30    10    5.08   168     3.03    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.31     9    3.28    96     3.40    13.9

 

Next report: December 24/pm