January 2, 2021
The fog this morning is rather patchy due to a considerable amount of mid and high level clouds streaming overhead from disturbances moving into the Pacific Northwest. The clouds will generally be thin enough to allow temperatures to rise to above average through Monday. Models are quite disappointing this morning as far as the outlook goes for precipitation. About 72 hours ago, models began trending a storm system due in Monday further north. That trend continues this morning with the main dynamics of this system moving into the Pacific Northwest and northern California with only the trailing portion moving into central California. Rain in Kern County now appears unlikely and even further north, just light amounts are expected. At any rate, the chance of light rain will begin to increase north of Kern County Monday afternoon and night with a chance of a few lingering showers early Tuesday morning.
Remember about four or five days ago when we were talking about the possibility of heavy rain for Thursday and Friday? Well, it also appears that this is not to be. Not only do models show this system weakening as it moves on shore, but also further north. Right now, I’m leaning towards no precipitation at all from this event for the six county growing area.
After Thursday night, models go back into a blocking ridge pattern with the storm track generally running from west to east into the Pacific Northwest, affecting roughly the northern ¼ of California from time to time. So, it appears not only will dry weather set in roughly a week from now, but so will an increase in night and morning fog and low clouds.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness through Sunday night with patchy night and morning fog. Increasing cloudiness Sunday night. periods of light rain likely from Fresno County northward Monday with a chance of light showers in Kings and Tulare Counties with sprinkles in Kern County. A chance of a few lingering showers early Tuesday morning. otherwise, Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night will be mostly cloudy with periods of patchy fog during the nights and mornings. Mostly cloudy Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday through Sunday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 59/39/61/39/60 | Reedley 61/37/61/40/60 | Dinuba 58/37/60/39/61 |
| Porterville 61/37/61/40/61 | Lindsay 60/38/61/40/60 | Delano 61/41/62/41/63 |
| Bakersfield 62/45/62/45/63 | Taft 61/46/62/48/62 | Arvin 62/41/62/42/63 |
| Lamont 61/41/61/42/63 | Pixley 61/40/61/41/61 | Tulare 59/38/60/41/60 |
| Woodlake 59/39/61/40/60 | Hanford 61/40/61/41/61 | Orosi 59/38/60/40/59 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly cloudy 41/58 |
Wednesday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 38/56 |
Thursday
Mostly cloudy 40/56 |
Friday
AM fog/partly cloudy 37/57 |
Saturday
AM fog/partly cloudy 34/59 |
Two Week Outlook: January 6 through January 12: This is the most encouraging two week model forecast I’ve seen for a while. It projects above average precipitation for all of California as the storm track migrates southward. Temperatures will be near to marginally below average.
January: This model doesn’t really show a trend for temperatures at all. We’ll call it near average this time around. Not surprisingly, it does indicate January will have below average precipitation, as has been the case this La Nina year.
January, February, March: This model does not really offer much hope for a decent rainy season as below average precipitation is indicated over the Golden State. Temperatures over this 90 day period will be generally above seasonal average.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be variable to no more than 10 MPH. during the night and early morning hours, winds will be generally at or less than 5 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Sunday morning. Late Sunday afternoon through Monday, winds will be mainly out of the east/southeast at 5 to 10 MPH. Expect winds Monday night through Tuesday to be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH.
Rain Discussion As discussed in the summary, rainfall this coming week is looking less and less likely, especially in the south valley. Models are tracking the next system further north with just light amounts of precipitation expected Monday afternoon into early Tuesday, mainly from Fresno County north. Rainfall amounts from Fresno County north will more than likely be around .10 to .20 and generally less than .10 in Kings and Tulare Counties with mainly just trace amounts over the valley portion of Kern County. Dry weather will return Tuesday afternoon and will more than likely last through the remainder of the week. The system due Thursday is now tracking much further north, so precipitation appears doubtful. Expect dry weather to continue for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 tonight and each night through at least next Friday. It’s possible lows could dip into the lower 30s next weekend, but no chance of below freezing weather is anticipated.
Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for January 2, 2021:
The air quality for is unsafe for sensitive groups in Madera, Fresno, and Kern County and is moderate in the remainder of the growing area.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Low to mid 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 90%/55% Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40%, tomorrow 20%. Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 30%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: ET INORMATION IS UNAVALIABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 48, Blackwell 55, Arvin, 51, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 51, Delano 44
Record Temperatures: 70/20. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days This Season: 961 courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 45.5 +1.5 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 1.42, or -2.13, Month to Date: .00 or -.08
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .74, +or- -1.26 Month to date .00, or -.04
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 543, Parlier, 636, Arvin, 517, Belridge, 590, Shafter, 602, Stratford, 615, Delano, 660, Porterville, 704
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 7:12 am Sunset: 4:56 pm Hours of Daylight: 9:43
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 56 / 34 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 57 / 37 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 56 / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 58 / 33 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 58 / 32 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 59 / 34 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 59 / 35 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1552 / 59 / 32 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 60 / 33 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 1.93 40 4.32 90 4.81 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 1.54 37 3.23 78 4.16 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.28 63 0.00 0 3.62 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.77 20 0.00 0 3.85 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.42 40 0.00 0 3.55 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.67 21 0.00 0 3.23 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.74 37 0.00 0 2.00 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.21 13 1.10 66 1.67 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.94 24 5.06 127 3.99 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.99 26 6.01 160 3.75 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.77 43 4.16 100 4.14 13.95
Next report: January 2/pm