January 3, 2021
Variable cloudiness continues to stream over central California. The clouds have been dense enough to actually spit out a few sprinkles overnight, but nothing measurable is expected until Monday. A fast moving trough of low pressure will move through, mainly Monday afternoon. The chance for light rain is fairly high from Fresno County north, but will taper off rapidly further south. Once this system goes through, upslope clouds will develop along the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada and the valley facing slopes of the Kern County mountains with mostly cloudy skies continuing Monday night and Tuesday morning.
As a drier air mass slowly moves in, clearing will take shape although in eastern Tulare County and Kern County, these clouds may linger through the day. Areas of fog and low clouds will form in areas where skies clear. In fact, after Monday night and Tuesday, that may very well be the main challenge as the storm track migrates further north. The only wildcard in this morning’s outlook are differences on models for Friday. Two models show a weak system moving on shore in northern and central California for a chance of light showers. However, most indicate dry weather will continue through the weekend and well into next week.
The dominant upper wind pattern will be out of the west, which is a mild pattern, so assuming the fog and low clouds don’t completely take over, above average temperatures will be with us anyway for the next week and possibly longer. Even the two week outlook is calling for just a very low chance of rain from the tenth through the sixteenth with above average temperatures.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness today. Increasing cloudiness tonight. mostly cloudy Monday through Tuesday morning. periods of light rain are possible from Fresno County north Monday with a chance of light showers in Kings and Tulare Counties and only a slight chance of showers in Kern County. Skies will begin to clear Tuesday afternoon but clouds may linger into Wednesday morning over Tulare and Kern Counties. Elsewhere, areas of night and morning fog and low clouds will develop. Partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon through Friday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Mostly clear Friday night through Sunday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 59/40/61/41/57 | Reedley 60/40/61/41/56 | Dinuba 59/39/60/41/55 |
| Porterville 61/41/61/42/55 | Lindsay 60/39/61/41/54 | Delano 61/42/61/42/56 |
| Bakersfield 60/43/63/45/55 | Taft 58/48/62/48/56 | Arvin 59/42/63/44/55 |
| Lamont 60/43/62/45/54 | Pixley 60/42/62/41/56 | Tulare 59/49/60/41/55 |
| Woodlake 61/41/61/42/54 | Hanford 61/42/61/42/54 | Orosi 59/39/61/41/55 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
AM fog/partly cloudy 34/55 |
Thursday
Am fog/partly cloudy 37/60 |
Friday
Variable clouds 42/57 |
Saturday
AM fog/mostly clear 38/58 |
Sunday
AM fog/mostly clear 37/59 |
Two Week Outlook: January 10 through January 16: A blocking ridge pattern definitely shows up on this model outlook. The storm track will move well north of central California, bringing the chance of rain down into the low category with above average temperatures.
January: This model doesn’t really show a trend for temperatures at all. We’ll call it near average this time around. Not surprisingly, it does indicate January will have below average precipitation, as has been the case this La Nina year.
January, February, March: This model does not really offer much hope for a decent rainy season as below average precipitation is indicated over the Golden State. Temperatures over this 90 day period will be generally above seasonal average.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH and variable in nature. Winds later tonight and Monday morning will be out of the southeast at around 8 to 15 MPH. Winds later Monday afternoon and evening will be out of the west to northwest at 8 to15 MPH, diminishing overnight. Winds Tuesday through Wednesday will be generally at or less than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons and variable in nature and at or less than 5 MPH nights and early mornings with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion Light rain is likely from Fresno County northward on Monday with light showers spreading into Kings and Tulare Counties. Most locations on the valley portion of Kern County will receive trace amounts to nothing at all. Rainfall amounts from Fresno County north will range from.10 to locally .25 with generally at or less than .10 in Kings and Tulare Counties. For now, it appears dry weather will prevail after Monday. Models are looking a bit interesting for this coming Friday. Two models actually show a weak trough moving in for a chance of light showers while most other models depict dry conditions. Since this is a new twist, I’ll go with a dry forecast for now. Over the weekend, we’ll go back into our blocking ridge pattern for dry weather.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 tonight and more than likely for the remainder of the week. It’s possible that, mainly on Wednesday morning, if skies clear and fog doesn’t take over, low frog ponds and similar locations could dip into the lower 30s. however, a mild zonal flow will continue for at least the next seven days, so no chance of any significant frost exists.
Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for January 3, 2021:
The air quality is moderate for the entire growing area.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Low to mid 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 90%/55% Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 10%. Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 10%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: ET INORMATION IS UNAVALIABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 48, Blackwell 55, Arvin, 51, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 51, Delano 44
Record Temperatures: 72/23. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days This Season: 979 courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 46.3 +2.3 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 1.42, or -2.20, Month to Date: .00 or -.15
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .74, +or- -1.30 Month to date .00, or -.08
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 552, Parlier, 645, Arvin, 526, Belridge, 599, Shafter, 611, Stratford, 625, Delano, 670, Porterville, 718
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 7:12 am Sunset: 4:56 pm Hours of Daylight: 9:44
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 60 / 37 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 62 / 37 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 60 / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 60 / 34 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 62 / 33 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1500 / 64 / 38 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 60 / 36 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1543 / 65 / 37 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 63 / 36 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.01 1.94 40 4.32 88 4.90 14.06
MODESTO T 1.54 36 3.23 76 4.23 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.28 61 0.00 0 3.74 12.50
MADERA T 0.77 19 0.00 0 3.98 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.42 39 0.00 0 3.62 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.67 20 0.00 0 3.33 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.74 36 0.00 0 2.04 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.21 12 1.10 64 1.71 5.18
SALINAS T 0.94 23 5.06 124 4.07 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.99 26 6.01 157 3.83 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.77 42 4.16 99 4.22 13.95
Next report: January 4/am