January 4, 2021
A trough of low pressure and its associated cold front are just off the northern and central California coast at this hour. This rapidly moving system will move through the valley from midday to midafternoon. The chance of light showers from Fresno County north is still fairly high, however south of Fresno County, just a low chance of showers exists in Kings and Tulare Counties with no precipitation over the valley portion of Kern County. The only exception in Kern County is drizzle along the valley facing slopes of the Kern County mountains tonight and Tuesday morning. in fact, upslope clouds will cover most of the eastern and southern San Joaquin Valley through Tuesday morning. In regions outside the low cloud deck, areas of fog and low clouds will form.
We will remain under a zonal flow through at least Friday. Two more systems will affect northern California later in the week, moving rapidly from west to east: one Wednesday night and Thursday morning and the second on Friday. Models indicate rain will progress no further south than a Monterey/Merced line. However, models have been overplaying the southern limit of the rain line this entire winter season, so it’s possible the actual rain line may be further north.
High pressure will nudge even further north over the weekend, so the main challenge after today will be trying to outguess the fog and low clouds for the next week. Temperature forecasting is always a bit difficult under this pattern. Where the fog and low overcast are dominant, temperatures are chilly and where hazy sunshine prevails, temperatures are quite mild.
Medium range models show little hope of precipitation through the middle of next week, if not beyond.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy through Tuesday morning. light showers will become likely from midday through the afternoon from Fresno county north. With only a minimal chance of a few scattered sprinkles or light showers in Kings and Tulare Counties, Kern County will remain dry. Variable higher level clouds Tuesday afternoon through Friday with areas of night and morning clouds and fog. Mostly clear Friday night through Sunday with widespread fog and low clouds nights and mornings. Partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 61/40/57/34/57 | Reedley 63/41/58/34/58 | Dinuba 61/40/58/33/56 |
| Porterville 63/39/58/34/57 | Lindsay 62/39/58/33/56 | Delano 63/42/58/35/58 |
| Bakersfield 65/46/61/40/61 | Taft 63/48/57/46/58 | Arvin 63/44/60/41/61 |
| Lamont 63/43/58/37/57 | Pixley 62/40/58/35/58 | Tulare 61/40/58/33/57 |
| Woodlake 62/39/58/34/57 | Hanford 62/42/58/35/58 | Orosi 61/40/58/34/57 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
AM fog/partly cloudy 35/60 |
Friday
AM fog/mostly cloudy 41/61 |
Saturday
AM fog/mostly clear 37/56 |
Sunday
AM fog/mostly clear 34/56 |
Monday
AM fog/partly cloudy 34/60 |
Two Week Outlook: January 11 through January 17: A blocking ridge pattern definitely shows up on this model outlook. The storm track will move well north of central California, bringing the chance of rain down into the low category with above average temperatures.
January: This model doesn’t really show a trend for temperatures at all. We’ll call it near average this time around. Not surprisingly, it does indicate January will have below average precipitation, as has been the case this La Nina year.
January, February, March: This model does not really offer much hope for a decent rainy season as below average precipitation is indicated over the Golden State. Temperatures over this 90 day period will be generally above seasonal average.
Winds Discussion: Winds today will be mainly out of the east to southeast at around 5 to 12 MPH. Winds tonight and early Tuesday will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH. Winds Tuesday through Thursday will be generally at or less than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons and less than 5 MPH during the night and early morning hours.
Rain Discussion: Only light showers will spread into Fresno and Madera Counties today through possible the mid to late afternoon. South of Fresno County, there’s only minimal chance of a few light showers or sprinkles with dry conditions in Kern County. Rainfall amounts in Madera and Fresno Counties should tally up to about .10 with just trace amounts in Kings and Tulare Counties with a slight chance of a few hundredths over the northern portion of the counties. Tonight and the remainder of the week will be dry. Medium range models are indicating a blocking ridge pattern will be in place with well below average to dry conditions continuing.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 tonight and more than likely for the remainder of the week.
Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for January 4, 2021:
The air quality is Good for Madera County and moderate for the rest of the growing area.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Low to mid 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 90%/55% Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 10%. Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 10%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: ET INORMATION IS UNAVALIABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 48, Blackwell 55, Arvin, 51, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 51, Delano 44
Record Temperatures: 71/22. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days This Season: 989 courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 49.0 +5.0 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 1.42, or -2.27, Month to Date: .00 or -.22
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .74, +or- -1.34 Month to date .00, or -.12
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 555, Parlier, 649, Arvin, 526, Belridge, 599, Shafter, 611, Stratford, 625, Delano, 670, Porterville, 728
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 7:12 am Sunset: 4:57 pm Hours of Daylight: 9:45
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 60 / 37 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 62 / 37 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 60 / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 60 / 34 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 62 / 33 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1500 / 64 / 38 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 60 / 36 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1543 / 65 / 37 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 63 / 36 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 1.94 39 4.32 87 4.98 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 1.54 36 3.23 75 4.31 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.28 59 0.00 0 3.85 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.77 19 0.00 0 4.09 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.42 38 0.00 0 3.69 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.67 20 0.00 0 3.43 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.74 36 0.00 0 2.08 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.21 12 1.10 63 1.75 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.94 23 5.06 122 4.14 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.99 25 6.01 153 3.92 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.77 41 4.16 97 4.31 13.95
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 60 / 37 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 62 / 37 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 60 / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 60 / 34 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 62 / 33 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1500 / 64 / 38 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 60 / 36 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1543 / 65 / 37 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 63 / 36 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.01 1.94 40 4.32 88 4.90 14.06
MODESTO T 1.54 36 3.23 76 4.23 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.28 61 0.00 0 3.74 12.50
MADERA T 0.77 19 0.00 0 3.98 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.42 39 0.00 0 3.62 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.67 20 0.00 0 3.33 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.74 36 0.00 0 2.04 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.21 12 1.10 64 1.71 5.18
SALINAS T 0.94 23 5.06 124 4.07 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.99 26 6.01 157 3.83 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.77 42 4.16 99 4.22 13.95
Next report: January 4/pm