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Forecast

January 6, 2021/report

January 6, 2021

Dense fog is widespread, mainly north of Kern County, all the way up into the lower Sacramento Valley.  Most locations are reporting a visibility of less than ¼ mile with a few locations reporting up to ½ mile visibility.  Even in Kern County, Bakersfield was reporting scattered low clouds developing at 300 feet.

 

A warm air inversion is  now in place.  To illustrate this, the freezing level is now up to 10,800 feet.  The temperature at Sandburg at an elevation of 4,100 feet was 50 degrees as of 6:00am while most locations on the valley floor were ranging in the mid to upper 30s.  high clouds will also develop above the fog layer later today as a trough of low pressure moves through the Pacific Northwest and northern California.  It’s possible a few light showers could make it to a Bay Area/Sacramento line later this afternoon and tonight.  the higher clouds above may also slow the burn off process of the fog during the course of the day as the higher clouds inhibit the sun from working on the fog layer,

 

The next weather system will follow a similar path late Thursday night and Friday  with some increase in mid and  high clouds over the valley, but little else.  Models for the weekend are quite discouraging as a stronger high is expected to develop and build further north.  Models going out two weeks are indicating a strong blocking ridge pattern will be in place with little chance of rain for the next ten days and possibly longer.  This, of course, will set the stage for widespread night and morning fog and low clouds with partial afternoon clearing each day.

 

Forecast:  Widespread fog and low overcast this morning, mainly north of Kern County.  Increasing high and mid level clouds later this morning and during the afternoon.  Variable high and mid level clouds tonight with areas of night and  morning fog developing into Thursday morning.  mostly clear Thursday afternoon.  Variable mid and high level clouds again Thursday night and Friday with areas of night and morning clouds and fog.  Mostly clear each day Friday night through Wednesday with widespread fog and low clouds during the night and morning hours.  Clearing in some areas during the afternoon. 

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 55/37/57/35/57 Reedley 54/36/55/35/60 Dinuba 54/35/57/34/59
Porterville 58/35/57/34/60 Lindsay 57/34/57/34/60 Delano 58/37/57/36/62
Bakersfield 57/41/59/39/62 Taft 56/43/57/47/61 Arvin 59/37/59/37/63
Lamont 58/38/59/37/62 Pixley 57/35/57/36/60 Tulare 54/35/54/34/56
Woodlake 57/35/57/35/60 Hanford 56/35/57/35/59 Orosi 57/34/57/33/59

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Saturday

AM fog/partial clearing

36/54

Sunday

AM fog/partial clearing

39/52

Monday

AM fog/partial clearing

39/52

Tuesday

AM fog/partial clearing

40/53

Wednesday

AM fog/partial clearing

41/53

 

Two Week Outlook:  January 12 through January 18:  A blocking ridge pattern definitely shows up on this model outlook.  The storm track will move well north of central California, bringing the chance of rain down into the low category with above average temperatures.

 

January: This model doesn’t really show a trend for temperatures at all.  We’ll call it near average this time around.  Not surprisingly, it does indicate January will have below average precipitation, as has been the case this La Nina year.    

 

January, February, March: This model does not really offer much hope for a decent rainy season as below average precipitation is indicated over the Golden State.  Temperatures over this 90 day period will be generally above seasonal average.   

 

Winds Discussion: Winds through Saturday will be at or less than 10 MPH and variable in nature during the late mornings and afternoons and generally less than 5 MPH during the night and early morning hours with extended periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain Discussion:  Expect dry conditions for the next week to possibly ten days.

 

Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and each night for the remainder of the week.  However, river bottom and low lying frost pockets may briefly dip into the lower 30s on any morning with mostly clear skies and fog free conditions.

 

Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for January 6, 2021:

 

The air quality is Moderate for the entire growing area.       

 

The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com.  The option to use a specific address is available.

 

In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Mid to upper 40s.  Mid to upper 40s

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 90%/55% Porterville, NA

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60%, tomorrow 50%.  Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 60%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:  ET INORMATION IS UNAVALIABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.  Stratford .24, Parlier .32, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .40, Orange Cove .23, Porterville .NA, Delano .26. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 48, Blackwell 55, Arvin, 51, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 51, Delano 44

Record Temperatures: 73/17. Average Temperatures: 53/35

Heating Degree Days This Season: 1013 courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for this month So Far: 50.5 +6.5 courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  1.42,  or -2.41,  Month to Date: .T  or -.36

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,  .74, +or-  -1.41  Month to date .00,  or -.19

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 566, Parlier, 662,  Arvin, 532, Belridge, 608, Shafter, 618, Stratford, 638, Delano, 678, Porterville, 732

Hours at 45 or below 45.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise: 7:12 am   Sunset: 4:59 pm   Hours of Daylight:  9:46

 

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1600 /  59 /  35 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  61 /  34 /    T /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  60 /  42 /    T /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  61 /  44 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  62 /  39 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  59 /  47 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  60 /  40 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1540 /  59 /  44 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  60 /  41 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  56 /  40 / 0.00 /

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    2.09    41    4.33    84     5.14    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    1.54    35    3.23    72     4.46    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    2.28    56    0.00     0     4.06    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.77    18    0.00     0     4.29    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    1.42    37    0.00     0     3.83    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.67    19    0.00     0     3.62    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.74    34    0.00     0     2.15     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.21    11    1.10    60     1.84     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.96    22    5.06   118     4.30    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.99    24    6.01   147     4.08    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    1.77    40    4.16    93     4.47    13.95

 

Next report: January 6/pm