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Forecast

January 11, 2021/report

January 11, 2021

The fog situation out there this morning isn’t really too bad, by valley standards.  At last report, Visalia was down to ¾ mile visibility, and Madera ¼.  Otherwise, visibilities are reasonably decent, if you consider 2 to 5 miles decent.

 

A ridge of upper level high pressure is pushing inland over California.  The next weather system will move from west to east into the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night and Wednesday with light showers spreading over roughly the northern ¼ of California.  The freezing level this morning above Oakland was just under 12,000 feet, indicating a nice layer of warm air is above the valley floor.

 

By  Wednesday night and Thursday, a very strong high will be located roughly 400 miles off the central and southern California coast with a ridge extending northward through the Pacific Northwest.  Temperatures for the remainder of the week will be highly dependent on fog and low cloud behavior.  By Thursday, areas which are fog free will warm into the mid to upper 60s, possibly even near 70 in Kern County.  In areas that remain under a low overcast, only upper 40s to lower 50s can be anticipated.

 

Models still show a large and strong high pressure system off the California coast, covering roughly the western one-third of the U.S.

 

Forecast:  Areas of fog and low clouds nights and mornings with hazy sunshine in the afternoons along with occasional mid and high level clouds through Tuesday night.  areas of fog and low clouds nights and mornings, clearing in most areas in the afternoons, Wednesday through Monday of next week.

 

Due to widespread fog and low clouds, individual temperature forecasting is very tentative.  If your location remains under a low overcast, expect mid to upper 40s for highs.  If your location observes hazy sunshine, upper 50s to even lower 60s are likely. 

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 58/33/59/35/61 Reedley 59/32/60/34/62 Dinuba 58/31/60/33/61
Porterville 60/32/62/34/64 Lindsay 59/31/62/33/63 Delano 60/31/62/34/64
Bakersfield 60/38/64/42/65 Taft 58/45/63/48/64 Arvin 61/44/65/46/65
Lamont 60/34/65/37/65 Pixley 60/33/62/34/63 Tulare 57/31/62/34/61
Woodlake 58/33/62/35/63 Hanford 60/34/62/36/64 Orosi 59/32/62/35/63

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Thursday

AM fog/partial clearing

35/63

Friday

AM fog/partial clearing

36/63

Saturday

AM fog/partial clearing

36/64

Sunday

AM fog/partial clearing

37/65

Monday

AM fog/partial clearing

37/65

 

Two Week Outlook:  January 18 through January 24:  A blocking ridge pattern definitely shows up on this model outlook.  The storm track will move well north of central California, bringing the chance of rain down into the low category with above average temperatures.

 

January: This model doesn’t really show a trend for temperatures at all.  We’ll call it near average this time around.  Not surprisingly, it does indicate January will have below average precipitation, as has been the case this La Nina year.    

 

January, February, March: This model does not really offer much hope for a decent rainy season as below average precipitation is indicated over the Golden State.  Temperatures over this 90 day period will be generally above seasonal average.   

 

Winds Discussion: Winds through Thursday will be at or less than 10 MPH and variable in nature during the late mornings and afternoons and generally less than 5 MPH during the night and early morning hours with extended periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain Discussion:  Expect dry conditions for the next week to possibly ten days.

 

Frost Discussion: Again this morning, low to mid 30s were widespread throughout the citrus belt.  Most areas are fairly fog free.  Low to mid 30s can be expected again tonight with possibly minor moderation after Wednesday as daytime highs have the chance to move well above average.  It’s been a while since any precipitation has occurred, meaning the ground is drying out.  It may become more difficult for the fog to take hold on a widespread basis, however that remains to be seen.

 

Coldest low lying frost pockets tonight will dip down to 29 to 31 degrees with most flat terrain in the low to mid 30s.  expect similar conditions Wednesday and Thursday mornings.  If the fog does happen to take over, above freezing conditions will prevail.  For now, no particularly cold weather pattern shows up on  models.  Some  medium range models for around the 20 through the 22 are indicating the possibility of an arctic air mass moving into the Rocky Mountain region, but for now there is no evidence of a particularly cold pattern on our horizon.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

32

Porterville

32

Ivanhoe

31

Woodlake

Af

Strathmore

32

McFarland

32

Ducor

Af

Tea Pot Dome

32

Lindsay

30

Exeter

31

Famoso

Af

Madera

Af

Belridge

31

Delano

32

North Bakersfield

32

Orosi

31

Orange Cove

Af

Lindcove

31

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

29

Root Creek

31

Venice Hill

Af

Rosedale

Af

Jasmine

Af

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

32

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

af

Tivy Valley

31

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

31

AF=Above Freezing

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Low to mid 40s.  Low to mid 40s.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/58% Porterville, NA

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 60%.  Bakersfield: Today: 60% Tomorrow: 70%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:  Stratford .34, Parlier .41, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .40, Orange Cove .27, Porterville .NA, Delano .31. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 50, Blackwell 53, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 52, Porterville NA, Delano 46

Record Temperatures: 74/19. Average Temperatures: 54/35

Heating Degree Days This Season: 1088.  Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for this month So Far: 48.5 +4.5 courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  1.42,  or -2.77 or 34% of average.  Month to Date: .T  or -.72

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,  .74, +or-  -1.59, or 32% of average.  Month to date .00,  or -.37

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 591, Parlier, 696,  Arvin, 565, Belridge, 645, Shafter, 655, Stratford, 674, Delano, 717, Porterville, 753

Hours at 45 or below 45.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise: 7:11 am   Sunset: 5:04 pm   Hours of Daylight:  9:50

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1600 /  56 /  31 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /   M /  36 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  59 /  37 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  59 /  34 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  61 /  30 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1500 /  60 /  37 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  58 /  32 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1547 /  60 /  59 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  59 /  36 / 0.00 /

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    2.09    38    4.66    84     5.57    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    1.54    32    3.48    71     4.87    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    2.28    50    0.00     0     4.57    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.77    16    0.00     0     4.78    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    1.42    34    0.00     0     4.19    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.67    16    0.00     0     4.07    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.74    32    0.00     0     2.33     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.21    10    1.10    54     2.03     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.96    20    5.14   109     4.71    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.99    22    6.04   133     4.53    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    1.77    36    4.25    87     4.90    13.95

Next report: January 11/pm