January 15, 2021
Strong upper level high pressure is centered just off the central and southern California coast and extends inland through the Great Basin. The air aloft above central California is extremely warm by mid January standards. The temperature at Sandburg at an elevation of 4,100 feet is 53 degrees at 6:00am while Bear Peak at 8,200 feet is reporting a balmy 49. The freezing level over Oakland this morning has zoomed all the way up to 14,100 feet.
A fast moving but very weak inside slider will race through the Great Basin Saturday with no real impact on valley weather. On Sunday night, another fast moving low will race from the Pacific Northwest. Some models this morning indicate this feature will move through central California Monday morning with possibly some snow flurries over the high Sierra. This feature will form a closed low over southern California Monday night and Tuesday and will be just west of northern Baja Tuesday night and Wednesday.
In the meantime, an unusually strong surface high will build over the Great Basin Sunday night through Tuesday. The difference in surface pressure between the low to our south and the high over the interior will generate very strong Santa Ana winds in southern California. The counterclockwise circulation around the low to our south will have the winds aloft out of the east for a short time. This may result in Mono winds along the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada late Monday into Tuesday.
The incoming air mass will be cooler, but more importantly drier. Gusty winds, mainly along the west side, Monday and Monday night, will be responsible in part for lowering dew points, possibly setting the stage for below freezing weather Tuesday through Thursday mornings. More in the frost discussion below.
Models also show a cold low dropping southward from western Canada and into northern and central California Friday and Saturday of next week. This would be our next real possibility of measurable rain along with low snow levels.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday night. Partly cloudy, breezy, and cooler Monday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday night through Thursday. Increasing cloudiness Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 65/37/66/37/67 | Reedley 67/37/66/37/68 | Dinuba 65/35/65/36/67 |
| Porterville 70/36/68/36/68 | Lindsay 69/35/67/35/67 | Delano 70/38/68/37/69 |
| Bakersfield 71/44/70/44/70 | Taft 71/52/70/53/70 | Arvin 72/39/70/38/71 |
| Lamont 70/39/69/39/70 | Pixley 68/36/68/37/68 | Tulare 65/35/66/35/65 |
| Woodlake 67/35/66/36/67 | Hanford 66/38/66/38/68 | Orosi 66/34/67/35/67 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Partly cloudy 37/59 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 34/59 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 30/61 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 37/59 |
Friday
Chance of showers 41/56 |
Two Week Outlook: January 22 through January 28: This model shows a broad area of low pressure stretching from western Canada southward into the western U.S., driving cold air into the western states. This would indicate below average temperatures. The chance of rain is higher than we’ve seen in a while.
January: This model doesn’t really show a trend for temperatures at all. We’ll call it near average this time around. Not surprisingly, it does indicate January will have below average precipitation, as has been the case this La Nina year.
January, February, March: This model does not really offer much hope for a decent rainy season as below average precipitation is indicated over the Golden State. Temperatures over this 90 day period will be generally above seasonal average.
Winds Discussion: Winds through Sunday night will be at or less than 10 MPH and variable in nature during the late mornings and afternoons and generally less than 5 MPH during the night and early morning hours with extended periods of near calm conditions. Winds Monday will be out of the north to northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH possible, mainly along the west side. It’s possible we could see some strong, gusty winds in the extreme south valley late Monday and Monday night.
Rain Discussion: Dry conditions will continue through at least next Thursday. Some models show a cold low dropping from western Canada into California next Friday and Saturday. this system is not abundantly moist, but may give us our first chance at measurable rain in weeks.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees through Monday morning. late Sunday night and Monday, a fast moving low pressure system will move through central California, forming a closed low over southern California and eventually off the northern Baja coastline. An unusually strong surface high over the Great Basin late Monday through Tuesday will generate an impressive off shore flow. It’s possible we could see some strong, gusty winds in the extreme south valley late Monday and Monday night. some Mono winds along the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada would not be a surprise.
The incoming air mass will be colder, but not critically so. The main challenge will be dry air moving in from the interior west and falling dew points. We could see upper 20s to lower 30s Tuesday through Thursday mornings and possibly mid to upper 20s. however, strong wind energy above the valley floor will create strong mixing above the valley floor Monday and Tuesday. Plus it’s possible the cloud canopy from the storm to our south may move far enough our way to throw some cloud cover over the valley, helping to keep temperatures up. All of these are definite maybes. For now, widespread mid to upper 20s is a worst case scenario with upper 20s and lower 30s a more likely possibility.
Later Thursday and Friday, clouds will begin to increase, reducing the risk of freeze conditions.
Lows Tonight: All locations will be above 32 tonight.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Mid to upper 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/58% Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: ET information has been unavailable for the past five days. Seventy two hours. Stratford .NA, Parlier .NA, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville .NA, Delano .NA. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 50, Blackwell 53, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 52, Porterville NA, Delano 46
Record Temperatures: 75/21. Average Temperatures: 54/35
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1174. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 48.2 +3.9 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 1.42, or -3.07 or 32% of average. Month to Date: .T or -1.02
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .74, +or- -1.74, or 30% of average. Month to date .00, or -.52
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 661, Parlier, 773, Arvin, 632, Belridge, 719, Shafter, 728, Stratford, 743, Delano, 797, Porterville, 825
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 7:10 am Sunset: 5:08 pm Hours of Daylight: 9:56
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 63 / 42 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / M / M / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 62 / 40 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 67 / 35 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 68 / 42 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 67 / 40 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 66 / 36 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1542 / 65 / 45 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 68 / 36 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 64 / 43 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 2.09 35 4.71 79 5.94 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 1.54 29 3.51 67 5.23 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.28 46 0.00 0 4.98 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.77 15 0.00 0 5.15 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.42 32 0.00 0 4.49 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.67 15 0.00 0 4.40 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.74 30 0.00 0 2.48 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.21 10 1.10 50 2.20 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.96 19 5.14 102 5.06 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.99 20 6.04 123 4.91 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.77 34 4.25 81 5.27 13.95
Next report: January 15/pm