January 16, 2021
Short term, the forecast is fairly benign as upper level high pressure is just off shore. There is quite a bit of ground fog from roughly a Hanford/Visalia line northward, mainly up the middle of the valley where visibilities range from 1/8 to ½ mile. This fog will burn off by late morning or early afternoon with hazy sunshine prevailing.
The air above the valley floor is extremely warm for mid January. As of 6:00am, the temperature at Sandberg at an elevation of 4,100 feet was an impressive 63 degrees while Bear Peak was reporting a temperature of 48 degrees at 8,200 feet. Most ag locations on the valley floor were in the mid to upper 30s. the freezing level over Oakland is down slightly but still very high at 13,400 feet.
The pattern becomes quite complex beginning Sunday night and Monday as the upper high moves further out to sea and builds a ridge northeastward into southwest Canada. Initially, a wave of fast moving low pressure will dive southward from the Pacific Northwest and will be centered just west of Santa Maria by midday Monday. It will then form a cut off low just west of San Diego Tuesday night and Wednesday.
In the meantime, a very strong surface high will center over Montana and Idaho. This configuration favors a Mono wind event in east to west facing canyons along the Sierra Nevada from Kings Canyon north late Monday through Tuesday. To our south, very strong Santa Ana winds will be buffeting mountain and coastal areas of southern California. I wouldn’t completely rule out some Santa Ana winds making it downslope along the valley facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains for a chance of strong, gusty winds in the extreme south valley.
As the low parks west of San Diego, it will pick up enough moisture to spread showers into southern California. It’s possible a few light showers may be picked up by the extreme southern Sierra Nevada.
Strong gusty winds will increase along the far west side of the valley Monday through Tuesday. Even though the air mass coming in is not that cold, we will have to closely monitor dew points as a much drier air mass may settle on the valley floor. More in the frost discussion below.
The low will move quickly eastward Wednesday night and Thursday as another cold low drops southward from western Canada, possibly creating a new low off the northern and central California coast Friday through Saturday. this could result in a chance of light showers, but models do indicate it will lack moisture. What else is new this winter?
Models continue to point to a good chance of wet weather in late January, but don’t hold your breath.
Forecast: After the low clouds and fog burn off this morning, expect hazy sunshine this afternoon. Areas of fog and low clouds will redevelop tonight and Sunday morning, mainly north of Kern County and up the center of the valley with hazy sunshine again Sunday afternoon. Partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday with gusty west to northwest winds developing, mainly along the west side of the valley. Mostly clear to partly cloudy Monday night through Wednesday. mostly clear Wednesday night and Thursday with patchy night and morning fog. Partly cloudy Thursday night. Variable cloudiness Friday through Saturday with a slight chance of showers.
Short Term:
Madera 65/37/66/38/66 | Reedley 67/36/68/37/67 | Dinuba 65/35/66/37/66 |
Porterville 70/36/68/37/65 | Lindsay 69/34/68/35/66 | Delano 69/37/70/39/65 |
Bakersfield 69/45/70/46/66 | Taft 71/52/69/53/65 | Arvin 71/38/70/39/66 |
Lamont 71/38/70/38/65 | Pixley 68/36/68/37/65 | Tulare 65/34/66/34/64 |
Woodlake 66/35/68/37/64 | Hanford 66/38/68/39/66 | Orosi 65/35/67/36/64 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 33/60 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 31/61 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 34/63 |
Friday
Slight chance of showers 38/57 |
Saturday
Slight chance of showers 39/55 |
Two Week Outlook: January 22 through January 28: This model shows a broad area of low pressure stretching from western Canada southward into the western U.S., driving cold air into the western states. This would indicate below average temperatures. The chance of rain is higher than we’ve seen in a while.
January: This model doesn’t really show a trend for temperatures at all. We’ll call it near average this time around. Not surprisingly, it does indicate January will have below average precipitation, as has been the case this La Nina year.
January, February, March: This model does not really offer much hope for a decent rainy season as below average precipitation is indicated over the Golden State. Temperatures over this 90 day period will be generally above seasonal average.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be light and variable through Sunday evening. Winds late Sunday night through Monday night will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH possible along the west side. Winds Monday night and Tuesday will be variable to15 MPH except along the Interstate 5 corridor where winds will increase out of the north to northeast at 15 to 25 MPH at times with stronger gusts.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry weather through at least Thursday night of next week. Some models do show a very cold upper low dropping along the northern and central California coast Friday and Saturday. on paper, this system appears to lack moisture. Even so, a chance of light showers is possible for later Friday through Saturday. longer range models indicate heavier precipitation over more than half of California later in the month, but I’m taking that with a grain of salt.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing through Monday morning. a very complex pattern will begin to evolve Monday through midweek. A wave of low pressure will rapidly move through central California Monday then form a cutoff low just west of San Diego Tuesday through Wednesday. in the meantime, a sharp southwest to northeast ridge of high pressure will build northeastward into the Pacific Northwest and very strong surface high pressure will develop over Montana and Idaho. This whole mess will create a very strong off shore flow Monday through Tuesday night. the main element of concern is dew points as strong winds along the west side and mixing above the valley floor due to the off shore flow will lower dew points. We may see upper 20s and lower 30s by Tuesday morning with a better chance Wednesday and Thursday. The cloud shile from that low to our south may make it up far enough to pull cloud cover over the valley, resulting in low to mid 30s. beginning Friday and lasting through the weekend, a very cold low will drop southward from western Canada, forming a new low off the northern and central coast. Even though this system is cold, cloud cover should keep temperatures above freezing Friday through Monday with even a slight chance of showers.
Lows Tonight: All locations will be above 32 tonight.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Mid to upper 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, NA Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: ET information has been unavailable for the past six days. Seventy two hours. Stratford .NA, Parlier .NA, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville .NA, Delano .NA. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 50, Blackwell 53, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 52, Porterville NA, Delano 46
Record Temperatures: 71/20. Average Temperatures: 55/35
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1185. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 48.6 +4.3 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 1.42, or -3.14 or 31% of average. Month to Date: .T or -1.09
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .74, +or- -1.78, or 29% of average. Month to date .00, or -.56
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 670, Parlier, 784, Arvin, 640, Belridge, 727, Shafter, 737, Stratford, 746, Delano, 806, Porterville, 750
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 7:10 am Sunset: 5:09 pm Hours of Daylight: 9:58
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 69 / 36 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / M / 41 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 68 / 42 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 68 / 40 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 68 / 35 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1500 / 70 / 41 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 68 / 37 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / 72 / 43 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 72 / 37 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 64 / 37 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 2.09 35 4.71 78 6.04 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 1.54 29 3.51 66 5.32 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.28 45 0.00 0 5.08 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.77 15 0.00 0 5.23 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.42 31 0.00 0 4.56 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.67 15 0.00 0 4.47 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.74 29 0.00 0 2.52 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.21 9 1.10 49 2.23 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.96 19 5.14 100 5.15 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.99 20 6.04 121 5.01 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.77 33 4.25 79 5.36 13.95
Next report: January 16/pm