January 19, 2021
There is just a conglomeration of rare weather factors which are resulting in strong winds even in areas where you rarely experience strong winds. In the west facing slopes of Fresno County, a place called Cascade Heights recorded a wind gust of 110 MPH at about 3:00 this morning before the anemometer blew away and the station went dark. I’m getting numerous reports of down trees in the Huntington Lake area and around Oakhurst, Mariposa, and Yosemite and as far south as Yosemite National Park in Tulare County.
Here are some peak gusts recorded as of 4:00am: Tioga Pass 85 MPH, Yosemite Valley 49 MPH, Mariposa 53 MPH, Shaver Lake 44 MPH, and Grant Grove 45 MPH. Believe it or not, this event’s peak has yet to occur. Winds have also made it to the extreme south valley where Lamont has recorded a peak gust of 45 MPH, Rancho road 60, Mettler 36, and the Grapevine CHP office at 56 MPH.
The first of two low pressure systems is now west of San Diego. The second upper low is racing southwestward and is now over Kern County where a few sprinkles are falling. The two will combine into one low pressure system tonight and Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms over parts of southern California. Strong upper level high pressure is well out over the ocean to our west with a ridge stretching into western Canada. All of this will align as an east/northeast flow at all levels of the atmosphere later this morning and through the afternoon. That is when the potential for the strongest wind gusts will occur. Any precipitation after the sprinkles in Kern County this morning will be from the Coachella Valley southward.
The low west of Baja will finally slip eastward Wednesday night and Thursday as our next player begins to take over Friday through Saturday. this is a very cold system with its origins in the northern Gulf of Alaska and will spread showers over all of central California, especially Friday night and Saturday. showers may last into Saturday night then a weak wedge of high pressure will move overhead late Saturday night through Sunday.
Storm number three will arrive late Sunday night and Monday. This system is even colder and may bring snow down to the higher foothills. This is the third day in a row where medium range models show the development of the strongest storm of the winter season so far and show it centering off the Oregon/northwest California coast with a big feed of energy slicing into the low into the northern half of California.
On paper, anyway, this system will produce lots of rain and snow over the northern half of California. Again, just on paper, this system shows tightly wound isobars at the surface which could produce another round of strong winds in the south valley and along the west side. However, the possibilities will have to remain in theory at this point.
More rain is also possible towards next weekend.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness today with strong, gusty, east to southeast winds in Kern County, especially near the base of the mountains. Expect strong gusty east to northeast winds along the west side. Mostly clear to partly cloudy tonight through Wednesday. mostly clear Wednesday night and Thursday. Increasing cloudiness Thursday night. showers likely at times Friday through Saturday, especially Friday afternoon through Saturday. a chance of showers Saturday evening. Partly cloudy late Saturday night through Sunday. Increasing cloudiness Sunday night. showers likely Monday and Monday night with a slight chance of showers Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 64/34/64/32/63 | Reedley 65/33/65/31/64 | Dinuba 63/32/64/31/64 |
| Porterville 68/32/65/30/65 | Lindsay 68/32/66/30/65 | Delano 68/37/65/32/65 |
| Bakersfield 71/45/65/40/66 | Taft 70/56/65/48/64 | Arvin 71/45/66/38/67 |
| Lamont 70/45/66/39/66 | Pixley 67/35/65/32/65 | Tulare 66/33/65/31/65 |
| Woodlake 67/33/65/31/65 | Hanford 66/34/65/32/65 | Orosi 65/32/65/30/64 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
PM showers likely 40/59 |
Saturday
Showers likely 41/54 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 35/54 |
Monday
Showers likely 37/54 |
Tuesday
AM showers possible 33/52 |
Two Week Outlook: January 24 through January 30: This model paints roughly 80% of the lower 48 with below average temperatures, including California. It also indicates there will be an active pattern over the western U.S. with a greater potential for precipitation.
January: This model doesn’t really show a trend for temperatures at all. We’ll call it near average this time around. Not surprisingly, it does indicate January will have below average precipitation, as has been the case this La Nina year.
January, February, March: This model does not really offer much hope for a decent rainy season as below average precipitation is indicated over the Golden State. Temperatures over this 90 day period will be generally above seasonal average.
Winds Discussion: If you’re wondering, peak wind gusts so far are detailed in the summary above. What worries me is the peak wind potential is still ahead of us from late this morning through the late afternoon hours. That is when pressure differences will be at their greatest and the winds aloft all align almost from east to west, which is extremely rare. Since wind gusts are already nearing 60 MPH in a few locations, wind gusts to 70 to 80 MPH are possible near the bottom of the Grapevine with gusts possibly in excess of 50 MPH near Taft and Mettler, possibly 60 to 70 MPH in the Arvin/Edison area, possibly as high as 50 to 60 MPH near Lamont.
We are talking about a rare weather event and these winds are notoriously difficult to nail down. However, strongest winds will occur from mid morning through late afternoon before diminishing this evening. North of Kern County, winds will be generally light along the east side of the valley. Along the west side, especially the Interstate 5 corridor, winds out of the east to northeast are possible with winds potentially exceeding 50 MPH. From later tonight through Thursday, winds will be generally light then will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH late Thursday night and Friday.
Rain Discussion: A few light showers are showing up on Doppler radar over Kern County, but strong winds are drying out the lower levels of the atmosphere, so no doubt they’re evaporating before reaching the ground. Dry weather will continue through Thursday night. showers will become likely Friday and especially Friday afternoon and evening. For now, it appears rainfall amounts could tally up to .10 to .25. A brief dry slot can be expected from late Saturday night through Sunday.
The next very cold system will arrive Monday which could result in a more significant precipitation event. Storm number 3 shows up as a powerful low to our northwest and it could potentially give heavy amounts of rain and snow over northern California, and possibly central California.
Frost Discussion: This pattern is making me more nervous than a mare in a stud farm. It’s possible in wind sheltered, low lying frog ponds on the east side that readings could drop into the upper 20s to the lower 30s. Dew points are crashing ini some parts of the valley, especially in Kern County where the wind energy is most intense. In other areas, dew points are holding their own. There will also be strong wind energy above the valley floor and possibly in and out cloud cover. My feeling is most locations will be above freezing tonight due to the many factors at play. There is a better chance of upper 20s and lower 30s Thursday morning as the atmosphere settles down. Friday and Saturday will be above freezing due to cloud cover and showers. The air mass behind the system is cold, so frost will be possible Sunday morning if skies clear. Any night next week that is between storms and is relatively clear will have the potential for upper 20s to lower 30s. However, this upcoming week will be governed by an active pattern so frost on any given morning is unlikely.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
31 |
Ducor
33 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
33 |
| Belridge
Af |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 20s to the lower 30s. Mid teens to the mid 20s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, NA Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: ET information has been unavailable for the past eight days. Seventy two hours. Stratford .NA, Parlier .NA, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville .NA, Delano .NA. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 50, Blackwell 53, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 52, Porterville NA, Delano 46
Record Temperatures: 73/24. Average Temperatures: 55/35
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1221. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 49.3 +4.9 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 1.42, or -3.35 or 30% of average. Month to Date: .T or -1.30
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .74, +or- -1.90, or 28% of average. Month to date .00, or -.68
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 677, Parlier, 797, Arvin, 650, Belridge, 737, Shafter, 750, Stratford, 757, Delano, 818, Porterville, 750
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 7:08 am Sunset: 5:12 pm Hours of Daylight: 10:02
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 75 / 39 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / M/ 44 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 69 / 44 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 70 / 38 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 73 / 36 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 69 / 57 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 69 / 41 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 70 / 40 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1600 / 64 / 51 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 73 / 43 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 2.09 33 5.14 82 6.30 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 1.54 28 3.85 69 5.57 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.28 43 0.00 0 5.32 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.77 14 0.00 0 5.44 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.42 30 0.00 0 4.77 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.67 14 0.00 0 4.65 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.74 28 0.00 0 2.64 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.21 9 1.16 50 2.34 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.96 18 5.88 109 5.40 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.99 19 6.61 125 5.27 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.77 31 4.77 85 5.63 13.95
Next report: January 19/pm