January 20, 2021
Yesterday at this time, the winds at all levels of the atmosphere aligned out of the east. That is no longer the case over central California with the strongest winds mainly confined to Orange County southward. The center of the low is off the northern Baja coastline. The circulation around this storm is pumping showers into southern California and western Arizona as far north as extreme northern San Bernardino County. This system will no longer have a big impact on valley weather. Also, the northern portion of the high which yesterday was northeastward into western Canada has broken down. This is allowing a very cold low in the Gulf of Alaska to begin its journey southward. By late Thursday night, the center will be near the Oregon/northern California border and roughly near the Bay Area Friday night. much of this system will travel southward over land, so it will not have the ability to pick up much moisture. Because of this, just light showers are anticipated from mainly Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.
The low will move into southern California Saturday night and Sunday, allowing a short lived period of dry weather from Saturday night through Sunday night. The third system is even colder and potentially stronger and will arrive Monday. This storm should drive snow levels down into the foothills surrounding the valley with periods of showers Monday, possibly through Tuesday. There will be a brief break Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Models continue to show a powerful low developing off the Oregon/northwest California coast later Wednesday through Thursday. Models are also trying to bump up a high pressure system over the southern half of California, inhibiting the southern progression of the low. Models are also indicating the formation of a pineapple connection into southern Oregon and northern California. This could result in copious amounts of rain for Oregon and northern California and possibly central California. The trend of this winter of storms remaining just a bit too far to the north may be in play here, but I promise I’ll do everything I can to get it to track southward.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Thursday. Increasing cloudiness late Thursday night. Periods of light showers Friday through Saturday morning. A chance of light showers Saturday afternoon and evening. Partly to mostly cloudy later Saturday night through Sunday night. periods of rain at times Monday through Tuesday with snow down into the foothills. Partly cloudy Tuesday night. increasing cloudiness again Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 64/30/65/34/57 | Reedley 65/29/65/33/58 | Dinuba 63/28/64/34/57 |
| Porterville 65/29/66/33/59 | Lindsay 64/27/65/33/59 | Delano 66/29/66/34/60 |
| Bakersfield 66/39/68/40/60 | Taft 63/48/65/46/58 | Arvin 66/34/66/35/61 |
| Lamont 66/33/66/36/60 | Pixley 65/29/66/34/58 | Tulare 63/28/65/33/57 |
| Woodlake 64/29/66/35/58 | Hanford 65/31/66/36/57 | Orosi 64/28/66/33/57 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
AM showers 39/56 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 34/55 |
Monday
Showers likely 37/51 |
Tuesday
AM showers 34/51 |
Wednesday
Increasing clouds 33/56 |
Two Week Outlook: January 27 through February 2: This model indicates the storm track will move a bit further north with above average precipitation over northern California and below average over southern California. Temperatures should be close to average.
January: This model doesn’t really show a trend for temperatures at all. We’ll call it near average this time around. Not surprisingly, it does indicate January will have below average precipitation, as has been the case this La Nina year.
January, February, March: This model does not really offer much hope for a decent rainy season as below average precipitation is indicated over the Golden State. Temperatures over this 90 day period will be generally above seasonal average.
Winds Discussion: Winds through Thursday night will be generally at or less than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons and at or less than 6 MPH during the later night and morning hours with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Friday will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 12 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly from Fresno County north. Winds Saturday will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH.
Rain Discussion: Dry weather will continue through Thursday night. the first of what may be three cold weather systems will arrive Friday. The closer we progress to this event, the more likely it appears that rainfall amounts will be light, generally no more than a tenth or two at most locations. A brief dry slot will begin Saturday night, continuing through Sunday night.
The next very cold weather system will arrive from the gulf of Alaska on Monday with periods of rain Monday through Tuesday with snow down into the foothills surrounding the valley.
I’m not as encouraged by what models are telling me about system number 3 which will be centered off the Oregon/northern California coast Wednesday through Thursday. Some models bump up a ridge of high pressure from southern California. With a very moist train of moisture from the subtropics northeastward into Oregon and northern California. To us veterans, this is known as a pineapple connection. It could result in copious amounts of precipitation over Oregon and northern California. What is yet to be determined is the southern limit of the precipitation shield.
Frost Discussion: After yesterday’s wind events, dew points on the valley floor are much lower, which was anticipated. Most locations this morning are in the low to mid 30s. Fowler, Lindsay, and Orange Cove were reporting 29 as of 6:30am. With generally clear skies and much quieter atmosphere, coldest locations in those low lying spots could potentially drop to 26 to 27 in unprotected locations with most locations ranging from 28 to 32.
The inversion tonight will be fairly weak but should add 3 to 6 degrees of warming by sunrise.
Friday morning’s outcome will be determined by how early clouds arrive from the next storm system. For now, low to mid 30s seem likely with above freezing temperatures Saturday and possibly Sunday morning, although local frost would not be a total shock.
A very cold storm will encompass Monday and Tuesday with above freezing temperatures with possibly local frost later next week, depending upon cloud cover.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
29 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
28 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
28 |
mcFarland
27 |
Ducor
29 |
Tea Pot Dome
28 |
| Lindsay
27 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
28 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
29 |
North Bakersfield
30 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
28 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
26 |
| Root creek
28 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
29 |
Jasmine
29 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
29 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
29 |
Holland Creek
31 |
Tivy Valley
28 |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
28 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 20s to the mid 30s. Upper teens and 20s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, NA Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 60% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: ET information has been unavailable for the past nine days. Seventy two hours. Stratford .NA, Parlier .NA, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville .NA, Delano .NA. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 50, Blackwell 53, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 52, Porterville NA, Delano 46
Record Temperatures: 72/24. Average Temperatures: 55/35
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1234. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 49.4 +4.9 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 1.42, or -3.42 or 29% of average. Month to Date: .T or -1.37
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .74, +or- -1.93, or 28% of average. Month to date .00, or -.71
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 677, Parlier, 797, Arvin, 650, Belridge, 737, Shafter, 750, Stratford, 757, Delano, 818, Porterville, 750
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 7:08 am Sunset: 5:13 pm Hours of Daylight: 10:03
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 69 / 45 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / M / 45 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 68 / 44 / T /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 69 / 35 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 70 / 37 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 70 / 46 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 67 / 36 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 68 / 39 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1600 / 63 / 48 / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 68 / 45 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 2.09 33 5.14 80 6.39 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 1.54 27 3.85 68 5.65 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.28 42 0.00 0 5.40 12.50
MADERA T 0.77 14 0.00 0 5.52 12.02
FRESNO T 1.42 29 0.00 0 4.84 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.67 14 0.00 0 4.70 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.74 28 0.00 0 2.67 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.21 9 1.16 49 2.37 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.96 18 5.88 107 5.48 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.99 18 6.61 123 5.36 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.77 31 4.77 84 5.71 13.95
Next report: January 20/pm