January 22, 2021
The first in what will be a three storm series to move into central California will begin today. The center of circulation of this first storm is just to the northwest of Ukiah at this hour. A few light showers have spread as far south as Merced County. Light showers will spread from northwest to southeast across the valley today. As the cold core low moves overhead this afternoon, a few isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Overall, however, precipitation amounts will not be significant.
Showers will continue well into Saturday with the snow level dropping to 3,000 to 4,000 feet. A brief ridge of high pressure will fill in Saturday night and Sunday morning. storm number two will then begin to affect the valley Sunday afternoon. This will be the coldest storm of the season, so far, with snow in the surrounding mountains possibly as low as 1,500 feet in heavier showers. This system has a higher moisture content so precipitation amounts will be greater with significant amounts of snow in the Sierra Nevada and snow on the Coast Range along with the Kern County mountains and the Timblor Range along the west side.
Periods of showers will continue Monday into Tuesday. Storm number three continues to show up on models as a powerful winter storm event. The parent low will set up off the Oregon coast with a rich feed jof moisture extending from well out over the Pacific from southwest to northeast. Initially this will be into northern California early Wednesday, spreading slowly south into central California later in the day. On paper, due to the fact the jet stream will be sweeping overhead means the possibility of tremendous precipitation exists along the Sierra Nevada and the west to southwest facing slopes of the Coast Range. This is the type of event that could potentially cause some flooding challenges.
The other factor in this event will be the potential for strong winds in the south valley and strong, gusty southeast winds along the west side and locally elsewhere. There’s no doubt in my mind that a rain shadow will develop along the west side and in the south valley with heavy amounts of precipitation along the east side of the valley north of Kern County. The good news is this will be a slow mover which will really give a chance of building a snowpack in the high Sierra. This storm will finally pull off to the east sometime Friday. Behind it, a zonal flow will set up with possible periods of active weather next weekend into the following week, especially over the northern half of California.
Forecast: Periods of showers spreading in today, continuing tonight and Saturday morning. isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. A slight chance of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Partly to mostly cloudy Saturday night and Sunday morning. showers spreading over the valley again Sunday afternoon and continuing at times into Tuesday morning. expect snow to fall all the way down to the foothills surrounding the valley. Periods of rain Wednesday through Friday, possibly heavy at times along the east side north of Kern County. Possible high winds in the extreme south valley late Tuesday night and Wednesday with strong, gusty winds along the west side and locally elsewhere.
Short Term:
| Madera 55/39/53/36/54 | Reedley 58/40/54/36/54 | Dinuba 55/39/54/36/53 |
| Porterville 59/39/54/35/55 | Lindsay 58/39/55/35/54 | Delano 59/41/54/37/53 |
| Bakersfield 60/41/53/40/55 | Taft 58/44/52/43/53 | Arvin 60/41/53/40/53 |
| Lamont 60/40/54/41/54 | Pixley 59/39/54/36/55 | Tulare 54/39/53/35/54 |
| Woodlake 57/39/54/35/55 | Hanford 57/40/54/37/55 | Orosi 57/39/54/34/54 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Periods of showers 39/49 |
Tuesday
AM showers 35/52 |
Wednesday
Periods of rain/windy 39/54 |
Thursday
Heavy rain possible 41/59 |
Friday
Periods of rain 44/59 |
Two Week Outlook: January 28 through February 3: This model is reverting back to a pattern favorable for below average temperatures with storms moving out of the Gulf of Alaska, resulting in above average precipitation.
February: Both the 30 and 90 day outlooks reflect a La Nina pattern with below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California and above average precip over parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Temperatures should be close to seasonal averages.
February, March, April: Precipitation will continue to be above average over the Pacific Northwest and roughly the northern ¼ of California with the southern 2/ 3 of California having below average precipitation. Temperatures should be marginally above average.
Winds Discussion: Winds today will be out of the southeast at around 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds tonight through Saturday night will be variable to 15 MPH. Winds Sunday through Monday will again be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to15 MPH with stronger gusts at times. I’m still concerned about wind conditions for later Tuesday night through Wednesday. very significant differences in pressure show up at the surface between off the northwest California coast and the high deserts of southern California. Past events such as this have resulted in very strong downslope winds off the Tehachapi Mountains and into the extreme south valley. Gusty southeast winds will be possible elsewhere, especially along the west side.
Rain Discussion: Light showers will spread over the valley today, continuing on and off through Saturday morning. isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon as a pool of cold, unstable air moves overhead. Generally speaking, rainfall amounts from this event will be fairly light, generally a tenth or two. Locally heavy showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, so a few locations could receive up to a tenth or so. The chance of showers will decrease Saturday afternoon with dry weather Saturday evening into Sunday morning.
Storm number two, which is extremely cold, will arrive Sunday afternoon, spreading showers over the valley which will continue through Monday night, possibly into early Tuesday. This system will be a snow lovers delight as snow may fall as low as 1,500 feet in heavier showers.
We will be involved with potentially a very powerful winter storm Wednesday through Friday. The storm’s mechanics are explained in the summary, but from Wednesday through Friday, along the valley’s east side, an inch or two of precipitation cannot be ruled out with much drier conditions along the west side and in Kern County due to rain shadows.
After this system finally leaves late Friday, models show a milder zonal flow setting up with possible active weather Saturday through Monday, mainly over the northern half of California.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing tonight. most locations Sunday morning will be above freezing, however where skies clear, typical frost pockets could dip down to 30 to 32. On Monday through Tuesday mornings, above freezing conditions can be expected although if skies clear in time Tuesday morning, a few locations could dip down to 32. Above freezing conditions can be expected Wednesday through next weekend due to a powerful winter storm. A mild westerly flow will set up next weekend into the following week.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Low to mid 40s
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, NA Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 20%. Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: ET information has been unavailable for the past eleven days. Seventy two hours. Stratford .NA, Parlier .NA, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville .NA, Delano .NA. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 50, Blackwell 53, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 52, Porterville NA, Delano 46
Record Temperatures: 70/25. Average Temperatures: 56/36
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1266. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 49.4 +4.7 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 1.42, or -3.55 or 29% of average. Month to Date: .T or -1.50
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .74, +or- -2.00 or 27% of average. Month to date .00, or -.78
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 710, Parlier, 846, Arvin, 684, Belridge, 789, Shafter, 796, Stratford, 808, Delano, 871, Porterville, NA
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 7:07 am Sunset: 5:15 pm Hours of Daylight: 10:06
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 66 / 29 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 69 / 33 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 68 / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 68 / 30 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 69 / 30 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 70 / 40 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 69 / 34 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 70 / 34 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1600 / 68 / 46 / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 67/ 35 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 2.09 32 5.14 78 6.56 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 1.54 26 3.85 66 5.82 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.28 41 M M 5.56 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.77 14 M M 5.67 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.42 29 M M 4.97 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.67 14 M M 4.80 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.74 27 M M 2.74 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.21 9 1.16 48 2.42 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.96 17 5.88 104 5.65 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.99 18 6.61 120 5.53 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.77 30 4.79 81 5.88 13.95
Next report: January 22/pm