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Forecast

January 25, 2021/report

January 25, 2021

The current very cold storm has dumped locally heavy rain on a few spots in the valley while other locations received just light amounts.  As of 6:00am, Fresno recorded .89 for the heaviest amount I could find.  Periods of showers with very low snow levels will continue, mainly this morning, tapering off this afternoon to just a small chance of showers.

 

A surface low is developing over southern Nevada.  It will generate gusty northwest winds in the valley today through the evening hours.

 

The next challenge will be potentially below freezing temperatures tonight.  this is discussed in the frost section below.

 

A very temporary period of dry weather tonight and Tuesday can be enjoyed before the next and potentially best storm of the season arrives.  Not only is this a powerful storm, but it will last a good three days.  Models continue to show an intense low off the Oregon/northern California coast Tuesday night with a rich feed of moisture moving from southwest to northeast.  Very heavy amounts of precipitation will fall Tuesday night over northern California, possibly reaching Fresno County by late Tuesday night.  This pineapple connection will stall right over central California, resulting in a magnificent opportunity to improve our water situation.  High resolution  models are indicating between Tuesday night and Friday night, as much as 6 to 8 inches of rain will be measured in the foothills and  mountains from Fresno County north with somewhat lesser amounts in Tulare County.  Some of the valley facing slopes of the Coast Range could record as much as a foot of rain.

 

This so called atmospheric river will only very slowly sag southward, possibly not affecting much of southern California until Thursday or even Thursday night.  tightly wound isobars continue to show  up on surface models which means strong winds could be experienced in the south valley with gusty southeast winds elsewhere, especially along the west side, Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

 

By Friday night, the low will finally have weakened, pulling off to the east and ending the precipitation.  Models show a weaker system affecting the northern half of the state Saturday and Sunday for only a slight chance of showers in our region.  Some models show another cold low from the Gulf of Alaska dropping into northern and central California Monday and Tuesday of next week.

 

Forecast: Periods of showers this morning, tapering off during the afternoon.  Partly cloudy tonight.  increasing cloudiness late Tuesday.  A chance of rain after midnight Tuesday night from Fresno County northward.  Rain likely at times throughout the valley Wednesday through Friday, possibly heavy at times especially along the east side north of Kern County.  A chance of showers Friday evening.  Variable cloudiness Saturday through Sunday night with a small chance of showers from Fresno County north.  A chance of showers Monday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 49/29/52/41/56 Reedley 48/28/51/42/55 Dinuba 49/27/50/41/56
Porterville 49/29/52/42/57 Lindsay 48/27/52/41/56 Delano 48/29/51/42/57
Bakersfield 47/33/50/42/58 Taft 48/29/50/41/57 Arvin 46/32/50/42/58
Lamont 48/31/51/43/59 Pixley 49/28/52/42/57 Tulare 48/27/50/41/56
Woodlake 48/29/52/40/55 Hanford 48/28/52/42/56 Orosi 49/28/52/40/56

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Thursday

Rain likely

48/56

Friday

Rain likely

47/56

Saturday

Variable clouds

43/58

Sunday

Variable clouds

42/60

Monday

Chance of showers

47/61

 

Two Week Outlook:  February 1 through February 7:  This model continues to show a pattern favorable for below average temperatures with storms moving out of the Gulf of Alaska, resulting in above average precipitation.

 

February: Both the 30 and 90 day outlooks reflect a La Nina pattern with below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California and above average precip over parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern California.  Temperatures should be close to seasonal averages.      

 

February, March, April: Precipitation will continue to be above average over the Pacific Northwest and roughly the northern ¼ of California with the southern 2/ 3 of California having below average precipitation.  Temperatures should be marginally above average.

 

Winds Discussion: Expect winds out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH at times through this evening.  Gusts to 30 MPH are possible, mainly along the west side but locally elsewhere.  Winds will be light and variable after midnight tonight through Tuesday.  Later Tuesday night through Wednesday night, winds will increase out of the southeast at 15 to 30 MPH at times with gusts over 40 MPH possible along the west side.  There is a chance of strong winds in the extreme south valley from later Tuesday night through Wednesday night.  Gusts to near 60 MPH cannot be ruled out near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains with winds possibly gusting to 40 MPH as far north as Bakersfield.

 

Rain Discussion:  The following are rainfall amounts as of 6:00am from the current storm:  Fresno .89, Madera .08, Del Rey .39, Lemoore .30, Hanford .35, Stratford .09, Tulare .18, Delano .08, Bakersfield .14, Mettler .30, and Taft .10.

 

Periods of showers will continue this morning with just a chance of showers this afternoon with a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms.  Expect dry weather tonight through Tuesday.

 

Rain could reach as far south as Fresno County generally after midnight Tuesday night.  expect rain at times Wednesday through Friday.  A strong rain shadow will  no doubt develop along the west side and in the south valley.  It’s entirely possible the valley portion of Kern County may receive very little precipitation until later Thursday or even Thursday night.

 

Rainfall amounts from Tuesday night through Friday could easily tally up to1 to 3 inches with heaviest precipitation along the valley’s east side north of Kern County.

 

The chance of rain will begin to decrease Friday evening.  The storm track will move further north over the weekend with only a small chance of showers from Fresno County north.  There are models indicating another cold low will drop southward from the Gulf of Alaska Monday and Tuesday of next week.

 

Frost Discussion: The air mass driving down the valley today is very cold.  Tonight’s low temperatures will be determined mainly by two factors.  The first will be wind conditions and the second possible factor is cloud cover.  Where skies are clear for several hours in the early morning, unprotected low, cold frost pockets and similar locations could drop down to 25 to 26 degrees with most flat terrain regions between 28 and 31.  It is possible we could see enough upslope clouds against the Kern County mountains and the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada.  If your location is blessed to be under this cloud deck, temperatures will be in the 30s.

 

The inversion tonight will be weak with temperatures at 34 feet generally 2 to 5 degrees warmer at most locations.

 

Fortunately, tonight is the only night we’ll have to deal with subfreezing temperatures as a very active and milder  pattern will set up Tuesday night for above freezing conditions for the remainder of the week and for now it appears through the first half of next week as well.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

29

Porterville

29

Ivanhoe

28

Woodlake

29

Strathmore

28

McFarland

28

Ducor

29

Tea Pot Dome

28

Lindsay

27

Exeter

28

Famoso

29

Madera

29

Belridge

28

Delano

29

North Bakersfield

29

Orosi

28

Orange Cove

29

Lindcove

27

Lindcove Hillside

32

Sanger River Bottom

25

Root Creek

27

Venice Hill

29

Rosedale

29

Jasmine

29

Arvin

32

Lamont

31

Plainview

29

Mettler

31

Edison

32

Maricopa

29

Holland Creek

31

Tivy Valley

28

Kite Road South

31

Kite Road North

28

AF=Above Freezing

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s.  Kern: Low to mid 30s.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 99%/43% Porterville, NA

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 60%.  Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 60%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:.  Stratford .58, Parlier .47, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .69, Orange Cove .47, Porterville .NA, Delano .42. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 50, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 53, Porterville NA, Delano 45

Record Temperatures: 75/24. Average Temperatures: 56/36

Heating Degree Days This Season: 1320.  Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for this month So Far: 49.1 +4.3 courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  2.32,  or -2.84 or 38% of average.  Month to Date: .90  or -.79

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,  .94, +or-  -1.91 or 33% of average.  Month to date .20,  or -.69

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 726, Parlier, 863,  Arvin, 694, Belridge, 803, Shafter, 804, Stratford, 829, Delano, 891, Porterville, 822

Hours at 45 or below 45.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise: 7:05 am   Sunset: 5:18 pm   Hours of Daylight:  10:12

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1600 /  55 /  32 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  57 /  36 / 0.03 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  54 /  41 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  56 /  33 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  57 /  29 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  57 /  38 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1500 /  56 /  34 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1600 /  58 /  32 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1500 /  55 /  37 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    2.78    41    5.17    76     6.82    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    1.63    27    3.86    64     6.07    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    2.55    44       M     M     5.77    12.50

MADERA                        0.04    1.02    17       M     M     5.86    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    1.96    38       M     M     5.16    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.85    17       M     M     4.94    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.94    33       M     M     2.85     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.21     8    1.16    46     2.50     5.18

SALINAS                          T    1.19    20    5.88   100     5.90    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    1.04    18    6.61   114     5.79    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    2.09    34    4.79    78     6.14    13.95

Next report: January 25/pm