January 26, 2021
A storm of a magnitude only seen once every two to three years is approaching the Oregon coast this morning. this already impressive system will continue to intensify and will park off the Oregon/northern California coast tonight through Thursday. Already, satellite imagery is depicting a swath of moisture digging further south out over the Pacific. It will begin to tap into the subtropics, creating a pineapple connection. A 170 MPH jet stream will sweep from west/southwest to north/northeast into the northern half of California later tonight through Thursday, perpendicular to the Coast Range and the Sierra Nevada. As this jet stream sweeps overhead and is uplifted by a 13,000 foot wall known as the Sierra Nevada, lift will wring out tremendous amounts of precipitation from later tonight through Friday. Anywhere from 6 to 10 inches of precip cannot be ruled out from roughly Kings Canyon northward with somewhat lesser amounts over Tulare County. Potential rainfall amounts on the valley floor are discussed in the rainfall discussion below.
Tightly wound isobars show up on surface models, meaning large differences in pressure will set up between the interior west, southern California, and the low off the northwest coast. Very strong southeast winds will begin to buffet the valley later tonight through Wednesday night. This is discussed in the wind section below.
The pineapple connection, or AR, will stall over central California through Wednesday then will begin to weaken and move into southern California Thursday night and Friday. That is when the heavy rains will lighten up. The chance of showers will diminish by Friday evening with the storm track migrating further north, affecting only northern California by this coming weekend.
Another low will drop out of the Gulf of Alaska, possibly spreading precipitation into central California by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.
Forecast: Partly cloudy this morning. increasing cloudiness this afternoon. Rain becoming likely later tonight through Thursday night, heavy at times especially along the east side north of Kern County. The rain will turn to showers Friday, diminishing Friday evening. Partly cloudy Saturday through Monday with patchy night and morning fog. A chance of showers Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 51/42/57/49/57 | Reedley 52/42/57/49/58 | Dinuba 51/41/56/48/58 |
| Porterville 52/42/58/50/58 | Lindsay 51/41/56/49/57 | Delano 52/43/57/50/58 |
| Bakersfield 51/44/60/51/59 | Taft 50/46/58/52/56 | Arvin 51/43/61/50/59 |
| Lamont 51/44/59/50/60 | Pixley 51/42/57/50/58 | Tulare 51/42/56/49/57 |
| Woodlake 51/41/57/48/56 | Hanford 51/42/58/50/58 | Orosi 51/42/57/48/57 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Showers likely 47/52 |
Saturday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 36/57 |
Sunday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 38/60 |
Monday
Increasing clouds 41/62 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 43/62 |
Two Week Outlook: February 2 through February 8: This model shows only a minimal chance of rain during this time frame. It also indicates we will be on the western side of a cold low, resulting in below average temperatures.
February: Both the 30 and 90 day outlooks reflect a La Nina pattern with below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California and above average precip over parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Temperatures should be close to seasonal averages.
February, March, April: Precipitation will continue to be above average over the Pacific Northwest and roughly the northern ¼ of California with the southern 2/ 3 of California having below average precipitation. Temperatures should be marginally above average.
Winds Discussion: Winds today will be generally variable to around 12 MPH. later tonight, north of Kern County, winds will increase out of the southeast to around 15 to 30 MPH at times by midnight. Winds late tonight through Wednesday night will increase again out of the southeast to 15 to 30 MPH with stronger gusts along the east side. Sustained winds of 25 to 35 MPH are likely through the center and the west side of the valley with gusts approaching 60 MPH. Strongest winds will be along the Interstate 5 corridor.
In Kern County, winds during the early morning hours will increase out of the southeast near the bottom of the Grapevine with sustained winds of 50 to 60 MPH and gusts to near 75 MPH possible. Other locations, such as Taft, Mettler, Wheeler Ridge, and Arvin/Edison and Lamont may see gusts to near 60 MPH.
In the Bakersfield area, expect winds out of the southeast at 20 to 40 MPH with gusts possibly exceeding 50 MPH.
Winds over the entire region will generally decrease to around 15 to 25 MPH with stronger gusts over the entire region and no more than 10 to 20 MPH Thursday night and Friday.
Rain Discussion: The chance of rain will increase tonight, mainly after midnight north of Kern County. Rain is likely at times Wednesday through Thursday night, heavy at times, turning to showers Friday. There will be a strong rain shadow through this event in Kern County and along the west side. However, with a rich pineapple connection developing, even those areas will receive significant amounts of precipitation.
From tonight through Friday evening, 2-3 inches is not out of the question along the east side of the valley north of Kern County. Along the west side of Fresno and Kings Counties, perhaps .75 to 1.50 and between .50 and 1.00 over the valley portion of Kern County. Later Friday night through Monday will be dry. Some models are showing another low dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska and affecting central California Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for at least the next week.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 98%/59% Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 0%. Bakersfield: Today: 60% Tomorrow: 10%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .53, Parlier .42, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .64, Orange Cove .43, Porterville .NA, Delano .38. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 50, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 53, Porterville NA, Delano 45
Record Temperatures: 72/24. Average Temperatures: 57/36
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1342. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 48.8 +4.0 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 2.58, or -2.65 or 49% of average. Month to Date: 1.16 or -.60
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 1.10, +or- -1.78 or 38% of average. Month to date .36, or -.56
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 760, Parlier, 892, Arvin, 717, Belridge, 825, Shafter, 826, Stratford, 853, Delano, 919, Porterville, 842
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 7:04 am Sunset: 5:19 pm Hours of Daylight: 10:14
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 52 / 41 / 0.10 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 49 / 41 / 0.04 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 47 / 41 / 0.62 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 49 / 40 / 0.36 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 54 / 38 / 0.25 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1500 / 47 / 38 / 0.15 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 47 / 40 / 0.33 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 47 / 39 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 44 / 39 / 0.26 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 53 / 36 / M /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON T 3.05 44 5.17 75 6.91 14.06
MODESTO 0.01 1.74 28 3.86 63 6.16 13.11
MERCED T 2.65 46 M M 5.82 12.50
MADERA 0.01 1.05 18 M M 5.90 12.02
FRESNO 0.26 2.58 49 M M 5.23 11.50
HANFORD 0.10 1.21 24 M M 4.97 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.16 1.10 38 M M 2.88 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.21 8 1.16 46 2.52 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 1.33 22 5.88 98 5.98 12.83
PASO ROBLES T 1.14 19 6.61 113 5.87 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.06 2.35 38 4.79 77 6.23 13.95
Next report: January 26/pm