January 27, 2021
Heavy rain is training through central California from south of San Francisco on the north down to about Vandenberg on the south. In the meantime, strong winds are buffeting parts of the west side of the valley and adjacent coastal mountains with gusts in the range of 50 to 60 MPH. the parent low is off the northern California/Oregon coast with a batch of rich subtropical moisture feeding into central California. Already this morning, a couple of inches have been recorded in the San Simeon area. I haven’t had a chance to check rain gauges from Fresno County north in the Sierra Nevada, so I’ll update those this afternoon.
In the meantime, models seem to have a good handle on feeding this dose of moisture running from south/southwest to north/northeast into central California. Already a rain shadow has developed in the south valley, as expected.
The atmospheric river of air will slowly slide southward tonight and Thursday, keeping heavy amounts of rain falling through about midday Thursday before the rain tapers off into showers Thursday afternoon through midday Friday. Precipitation should be over by Friday evening except for in the mountains where lingering showers will continue.
Weak high pressure will build in from the west over the weekend, ensuring dry weather for the southern 2/3 of California. A much weaker low will drop down from the Gulf of Alaska and into California Tuesday into Wednesday for our next chance of precipitation. For the past couple of days, models have been hinting that a strong low will develop over Arizona with a big high building into western Canada, creating a northeast flow and potentially dropping modified arctic air into California beginning about Thursday of next week.
Forecast: Rain, heavy at times, from northern Tulare and Kings Counties northward today with a chance of lighter precipitation further south. Rain tonight and Thursday morning, heavy at times, north of Kern County with periods of showers in Kern County. Showers Thursday night and Friday morning, locally heavy at times, tapering off by late Friday afternoon. Mostly to partly cloudy Friday night and Saturday morning. partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Monday. Increasing cloudiness Monday night leading to a chance of showers Tuesday through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 55/49/56/44/56 | Reedley 55/49/56/43/57 | Dinuba 54/48/55/42/56 |
| Porterville 58/49/58/43/56 | Lindsay 57/48/57/42/55 | Delano 57/49/58/44/55 |
| Bakersfield 60/50/59/45/54 | Taft 59/52/58/52/56 | Arvin 61/50/59/45/54 |
| Lamont 60/51/58/45/54 | Pixley 57/49/55/42/55 | Tulare 54/48/55/41/55 |
| Woodlake 56/49/55/42/56 | Hanford 56/49/55/42/56 | Orosi 56/47/55/41/55 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Partly cloudy 36/53 |
Sunday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 36/58 |
Monday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 37/61 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 43/57 |
Wednesday
Chance of showers 41/55 |
Two Week Outlook: February 2 through February 8: This model shows only a minimal chance of rain during this time frame. It also indicates we will be on the western side of a cold low, resulting in below average temperatures.
February: Both the 30 and 90 day outlooks reflect a La Nina pattern with below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California and above average precip over parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Temperatures should be close to seasonal averages.
February, March, April: Precipitation will continue to be above average over the Pacific Northwest and roughly the northern ¼ of California with the southern 2/ 3 of California having below average precipitation. Temperatures should be marginally above average.
Winds Discussion: Strong gusty winds in excess of 55 MPH have already been reported along the I-5 corridor. So far, winds in the eastern side of the valley have been manageable, generally in the 15 to 25 MPH range. Winds have gusted to 51 MPH at Avenal and 69 MPH at San Joaquin Ridge, just west of Interstate 5 and 51 MPH at the Merced Regional Airport.
Strong differences in pressure will continue for the remainder of the day with wind gusts in excess of 50 MPH certain possible along the west side of the valley. So far, these winds have not affected the extreme south valley, but have gusted to 74 MPH near the top of the Grapevine. It’s possible wind gusts in excess of 60 MPH may occur in the extreme south valley with winds generally ranging 15 to 35 MPH north of the Kern County line along the eastern and central regions of the valley. Winds Thursday will decrease to 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly out of the southeast, continuing on and off through Friday.
Rain Discussion: Just taking a quick look at rainfall amounts from the Kings River north territory of the Sierra Nevada. Already anywhere from .75 to 1.25 have accumulated. So far, the south valley has recorded just a few hundredths. That region is just south of the zone of he avy rain moving through the northern half of the valley. That rainline will only very slowly creep southward later today and tonight with most of the precipitation in Kern County falling Thursday night and Friday. Rainfall amounts towards the center east side of the valley from now through Friday evening will range between 2 to 4 inches, 1 to 2 incdhes along the west side of the valley except near the base of the Coast Range will 4 inches is possible. Kern County will generally record between .50 and 1.25 inches with heavy amounts near the southern and western mountains. Dry weather will prevail over the weekend and will continue through Monday night.
There will be a chance of showers Tuesday and Wednesday as a much weaker system passes through our region.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and each night for at least the next week. Models after Wednesday of next week are trying to show a colder, drier pattern. The configuration would set up a north to northeast flow over California, possibly pumping some modified air into the region.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 95%/41% Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0%, tomorrow 0%. Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 0%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .49, Parlier .39, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .49, Orange Cove .38, Porterville .NA, Delano .37. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 49, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 52, Porterville NA, Delano 45
Record Temperatures: 70/25. Average Temperatures: 57/36
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1366. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 48.5 +3.6 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 2.66, or -2.64 or 49% of average. Month to Date: 1.24 or -.59
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 1.10, +or- -1.82 or 38% of average. Month to date .36, or -.60
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 760, Parlier, 892, Arvin, 717, Belridge, 825, Shafter, 826, Stratford, 853, Delano, 919, Porterville, 842
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 7:04 am Sunset: 5:21 pm Hours of Daylight: 10:15
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 53 / 26 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 53 / 29 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 51 / 35 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 52 / 29 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 54 / 28 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 52 / 35 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 52 / 30 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 46 / 29 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 51 / 32 / T /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 3.05 44 5.27 75 7.00 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 1.74 28 3.92 63 6.25 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.65 45 0.00 0 5.87 12.50
MADERA 0.00 1.05 18 0.00 0 5.94 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 2.58 49 0.00 0 5.30 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.21 24 0.00 0 5.00 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.10 38 0.00 0 2.92 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.21 8 1.16 45 2.55 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 1.33 22 5.99 99 6.07 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 1.14 19 6.61 111 5.96 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.35 37 4.79 76 6.32 13.95
Next report: January 27/pm